This chart, below, shows
the time the Dow has spent "consolidating at the highs" along the deka (deca)
boundaries (10-100-1000-10,000), after completing long term bull markets.
From 1923 to 1942 was about 19 years, from 1966 to 1982 was about 16
years, and from 1999 to 2004 has been 5 years...so far.
B
y the way, the "rate" of return on this DJIA index, excluding cash dividends
, was 6.29% from a low of 21 at it's "opening " in 1896-97, to
the 2000 all time high at 11,750. The "mean" rate is "about" 5.7%, the
low to low rate using 12 (unity or 1.0 par for the orginal 12 stocks in 1896)
and the 1974 major low, at 570, was "about" 4.9%, and the high to high rate
using the 1929 to 2000 highs was also "about" 4.9%.
While we are fairly certain this defines the
channel limits (maxima and minimum), we also believe that the final high
for this Elliott Wave Grand Super-Cycle will not "touch" the upper trend
line, which is by far the most common occurrence for historic "extended wave
three patterns" of lesser degree.
As a matter of fact, we think the DOW's Grand Super-Cycle
will top out at the mean (center) trend line, and sometime between 2030 and
2040, with 2040 being 144 years from 1896 and the most likely target that
we can "project" at this time; eventhough, that is little more then pure
conjecture at this point. However, IF the basis of this analysis is
sound, and we firmly believe it is, then that high should also come in near
the Fibonacci number line at 28,657, which would represent a "rate"
of return of "about" 5.5% from it's beginning in 1896-97. That is ,
of course, very-very close to the "mean" (center line or average) shown in
this graphic (at 5.49%).
The big question at this point is, of course, what path
is this index "most likely" to follow between NOW and that Grand Super-Cycle
high in 2030-2040? Well, as it turns out, there is a vast amount
of circumstantial evidence, at this point in time anyway, that points to
only two scenarios that are vastly more likely than everything else. These
two paths are contradictory at times and supplementary at times, but are
clearly laid out by PTR in the "Subscribers Introduction," which is automatically
accessed for first time subscribers, but can be re-read at any time throughout
the year by clicking a menu item on the subscriber's home menu called: "Re-run
LW Roadmap."
For the Price
Time-Review
Andrew Quiggly
Editor
