PriceTime-Review's: LONGWAVE TRENDS
Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) From 10/1990-11/9/2004 POSTED 11/9/04
LOG AND LINEAR SCALE CHARTS WITH
MEAN REGRESSION CENTER LINE, RATES, TRENDLINES, CHANNEL LINES, RATIO ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS:
rate chart is at the bottom of this page.
Standard Introduction for Longwave rate analysis. Current comments and chart are below.
As with all longwave projections, we will start out by plotting
the existing price-time chart for the longest time period that we have data
available for. That plot will be made in semi-log and linear scale, but
the main analysis will be made in log scale since it is much more likely
that we will be able to see some actual longwave trend lines, if any exist,
in that scale. As explained in our Longwave and Fibonacci introductions, stocks charts have a very
strong tendency to produce an exponential growth curve, and those curves will
appear as straight lines in semi-log scale but will appear as steeply rising
curves in linear scale. After we have plotted the longwave stock chart, we will then
plot some "lines" to represent the longwave rates of return on invested capital
excluding dividends (ROROICED) that some similar stocks and will know market
indexes have "actually" returned over many years. We will then compare our
stock under review with those other rates and make some "logical" estimates of how likely
this is to "regress" toward one of those other rates, continue
on it's current rate line, return to a prior rate line, or move on to something
totally different.
Needless to say, there is no guarantee that any individual stocks
will now, or even eventually, fall within the long term mean or actual rates
of return delivered by similar stocks or indexes over their long term period.
Never the less, it is very logical that similar type stocks will "eventually"
do just that, as statistical analysis has shown that most "functions" based
on nature or human activity do eventually "regress to mean" as well as show
a tendency to "group" within the bounds of similar functions. That is especially
true when an individual component is part of the larger group under review, as
most stocks are part of the industry, group, or index which we compare with.
UPDATED FOR 11/9/04:
We posted a new rate chart below, but there are virtually no changes since the last
posting on 8/27/04, which we have left as is on the prior page at <TXN: 8/27/04 post>
. The large graphic for that 8/27 posting is still valid, and we
still believe that TXN will either make a double top with it's prior 2004
high, at $34, or at least make a run back up to somewhere near that high
in the next few weeks or months. After that high is in, somewhere between
$30 and $34 "we think," then we expect TI to decline into a fall of 2006
low at, or very near, the low made in 2002, at $13, OR even make a
new "lower-low" near $8. After that we expect TI to make another Bear
Market rally up, as wave D of this wave four triangle, into a 2008 high,
and that high to be followed by another low in the fall of 2010: as the termination
of the Bear Market that began at the March 2000 all time high. The
low in 2010 "should" be at either $13 or $8, and will most likely be the
opposite of the low made in 2006. That is to say, if 2006 is $13 then expect
2010 to be a lower low at $8, and if 2006 is at $8 then expect 2010 to be
nearer to $13.
For the PriceTimeReview
A.J. Quiggly
Editor
