1 LONGWAVE TRENDS Dow Jones Industrial Average compared to the "well defined" 10-11 year  recession-depression cycle in the United State's economy:   1900-2/2005     1 --chart only- POSTED AS REFERENCE  1/17/2001  updated 2/7/05    POSTED 2/7/05:      One of the main reason's we are looking for a monster low in 2010, rather than 2006, is the very high probability that this "very well defined" 10-11 year economic cycle will produce a nasty recession, or even a depression, in 2010 and/or 2011.       Furthermore, since the four year, "Presidential," cycle will also have a "theoretical trough" in 2010, AND the Longwave Cycle, "Technology & Innovation-Shakeout Cycle," is also due somewhere between 32 years and 42 years from 1974, which would also target 2006-2016, then it looks like 2010 is going to be the year that George Bush's credit card bill comes due in full force.      By the way,  the stock market's "Innovation-Shakeout Cycle," with troughs near 26-42 years, is "about" 1/2 the Kondratiev, "Longwave," cycle, which is "about" 50-68 years in "approximate" periodicity (low to low).  In other words, the "shakeout" for a new technology, where the "old big dogs" gobble up the "fast little dogs," that are worth gobbling up, can come near the "Economic Longwave" (the Kondratiev cycle)  peak, or near it's trough, or both.      Furthermore, since "a shakeout' should not be as serious to the economy as when a whole existing technology is being replaced by a new one, like hydro-carbon fuels will be "replaced" sometime between 2030 and 2050, we think, so we still "expect" the DJIA to hold at, or near, 6,765 in 2010.    However, there is still the more remote possibility that this "shakeout" will be a lot more serious then we think it will be and the DOW could drop as low as 4,181, in 2010 or even 2014.  For the Price -Time Review (tm) A.J. Quiggly Editor