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PRICE-TIME REVIEW's
Market-View Weekly e1
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1
HISTORIC TIMES
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9/1/00 HIGH to 10/2002
LOW~~
26m or
112 wks |
26m
(112 weeks) x 1.618=
42months 181 weeks
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9/1/00 HIGH to 3/12/03
LOW~~30m or
130 wks
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3/12/03 LOW to 3/12/04
HIGH~~12m or
52 wks
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10/11/02 LOW to 1/17/03
HIGH~~3m or
13 wks
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Possible CIT
DATES >
random
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10/9/02 LOW +112 wks
~~
11/1/04
xxxx
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3/12/03 LOW +130 wks
~~
9/15/2005 xxxx
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8/13/04 LOW +52 wks ~~
8/13/2005 xxxx
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10/02 up to 3/04 up= 17m
8/13/04 low+17m= 1/2006
?
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GANN 5y
9/1//2000
NYA "2000 hi "
to
9/1/2005 HIGH ??
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10/21/05 LOW
+13 wks ~~
1/17--1/21
2006 HIGH?
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10/10/2002
LOW +42
wks
is ~~
5/10/2006 HIGH?
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GANN
1/14/2000
DOW "ATH" to
1/14/2006 HIGH ??
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111111111111111111111111111
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SUNDAY, JUNE 25, 2006 5:00
P.M.
US-EST GSM-5
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--PLEASE SCROLL DOWN
before
SELECTING from MENU--
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The
updates
for 6/25/06 *
are in progress, and as of at
5:00 PM on 6/25/06 the main Market-View
Menu page
(A1)
, including some of those
items that can be selected
from that menu.
Also note that the new
Weekly Summary
will always be updated first.
For
this
NYA page*,
the last
five
(5)
, of the top
(7)
menu
selections that will be updated or
reviewed, five (5) has/have been
completed so far, and the
PTR comments
for this week are
100%
complete.
*Therefore,
as of 6/25/06
at 5:00 PM this
NYA weekly analysis
is 98% complete.
Please scroll
down and read the next
notice if you have not done
so already.
A. Quiggly Editor
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FOR SUNDAY,
JUNE 25, 2006:
AND SOME ITEMS
WHICH CAN BE SELECTED AT THE MAIN MARKET-VIEW
MENU,
A1
, HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
THIS PAGE--will be
--UPDATED for 6/25/2006
THE MAJOR NEW COMMENTS
FOR ARE ON THE
NYA ANALYSIS PAGE
AS
"PTR-Comments."
CAUTION: SINCE
the post that appears at the menu selections
will be those for the PRIOR month's POST
UNTIL superseded by this month's updates,
be sure to watch the
dates closely.
Andrew
Quiggly
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--PLEASE
SCROLL DOWN
before SELECTING
from MENU--
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N.Y.S.E. INDEX (NYA):
KEY VALUES FOR PRICE
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NYA--PRIOR WEEKS
as of
6/23/06
*
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DATES
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LAST
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-2WKS
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-3WKS
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CLOSE
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7924
|
7933
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7965
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HIGH
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7984
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7990
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8305
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LOW
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7833
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7708
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7837
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G/L
%
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-.2%
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-.5%
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-3.5%
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NYA--HISTORIC LEVELS
updated 6/23/06
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EVENT
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LEVEL and DATE
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ALL TIME HIGH
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8471cl 8491 id
~~4/28/06
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MAJOR LOW
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4474cl 4295id ~~10/10/02
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2005 HIGH
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7841cl
7867id
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2006 HIGH
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8651 5/9/06 |
JUN.TECH ONLY (71)
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22 UP with +11%
max.
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JUN. TECH ONLY
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12 DN with -9.4% max.
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JUN. TECH ONLY
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Avg. if
Up =
+4.3%= 2315
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JUN. TECH ONLY
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Avg. if DN = -3.4%= 2144
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JUN.-
DOW
(1928)
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42
Up
with +24.3%
max.
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JUN.- DOW
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34 DN with -17.7% max.
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JUN.- DOW
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Avg. if
Up =
+4.2%= 11636
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JUN.- DOW
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Avg. if DN = -3.1%= 10,824
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NYA--KEY PIVOT LEVELS
updated 6/23/06
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LEVEL
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DESCRIPTION
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>10946
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FIBONACCI .61x DOW @ 17,771
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9300 +/-
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Head & Shoulders
target M2 from N2
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8948
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R2 JUNE 2006
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>8800
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BULL MANIA--"the sequel"
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8805
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Log W9--IF 10/21/05 is w4 low?
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8700
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IF 5th wave extension from 10/02
lin
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>8680
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Huge a-b-c measured
from 10/02 lin
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8670
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R2 Q2 of 2006
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8651
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NEW 2006 high on 5/9/06 id 8646cl
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8577
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Huge w-x-y measured from 3/12/03 lin
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8568
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R1 JUNE 2006
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8590
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"Double" 2x from 4295 low 10/2002
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8590 +/-
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IF w3=1994-1999
lin=+4300>4290=
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8590
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R2 Yearly 2006
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8491
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Prior report close on 4/28/06
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8451
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R1 Q2
2006
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8428+/-
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Log W9--IF 4/25/05 is w4 low?
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8286+/-
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Inverted "Head-Shoulders" M1 >N1
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8271
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PIVOT JUNE
2006
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8241
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Prior report close on 5/26/06 |
8235
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50 day SMA as of 6/23/06
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8233
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Prior report close on 3/31/06
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8112
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R1 2006
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8180xx
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9th wave top IF 10/21/05 was
(w4)
low lin
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8165
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Prior report
close on 3/5/06 |
8102
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PIVOT Q2
2006
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8031
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Prior report close:
1/6/2005
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8001
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Prior report close on 2/6/06
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8023
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S1 Monthly APRIL
2006
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7924
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CLOSE on 6/23/06
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7932
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200 day SMA as of 6/23/06 |
7891
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S1 JUNE 2006
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7880
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GANN Rule of 1/8ths: 0-7005
= 8/8ths + 9/8= 7880
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7883
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S1 Q2
2006
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7867
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2005 HIGH
12/14/2005
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7860xxx
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Cal. 9th wave top IF 4/25/05
was (4)
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7791x
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Cal. 9th wave top from 10/2002
lin close
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7753
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Yearly >>CLOSE on 12/31/2005
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7679
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Gann SQ-9 target: 11 rev.
from 10/02
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7677
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5th top IF 10/02 low
& W5=W1 "log"
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7661
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1.236 x the 2000-2002
decline (1st Fibo. extension)
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7594
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S2 JUNE 2006
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7578
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P 2006 Yearly Pivot
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7577
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LOG scale ABC (subdivided) from
10/2002 low
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7551
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5th wave top IF 3/12/03
low and 6/13/03=W1 "lin"
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7534
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S2 Q2
2006
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7500
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2000 to 2002 expanding
triangle measurement...lin
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7346
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Gann Rule of 1/8ths: 7000-4300=
8/8
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7316
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GANN Sq-9 1rev
up from 10/02 low
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7240
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S1 2006
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7150xx
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5th WAVE top if
10/02 low & w5=w1 "linear"
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7000
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MAJOR SUPPORT
& PIVOT prior 9/2000 high
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6912
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2005 LOW 5/13/2005
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6857
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P YEARLY PIVOT (2005)
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6837
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MAJOR HORIZONTAL SUPPORT
1999-2001
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6800
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1999, 2000, and 2004 highs.
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6765
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Fibonacci
number line...huge mean
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6662
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S2 2006
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6200
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2004 low and 2002
high Dow Theory Sec. pivot |
5700
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Major horizontal support
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5700
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50% retrace of 2002
to 7500 (7/21/05) "linear"
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5100
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911 spike low
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4460
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10/10/2002 low "daily
close"
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4400
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3/2003 low
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4295
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10/10/2002 low
"intra-day"
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4181
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Fibonacci
Number line--huge mean
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--Please scroll down to continue--
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COMMENTS--NYA INDEX
and the U.S. Market in general.
WORKING THE 6/25/06 UPDATE and 100%
finished as of
6/25/06 5 P.M
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6/23/06:
Once
again, I'm posting a Gann Swing chart to best illustrate the near term position
of the NYA. The graphic below shows two swing charts, one for SPx and
one for NYA for the period of 5/1/06 to now.
While these two charts
show that these two indexes have completed three waves down and are working
something else since a 6/13/06 low, the next graphic of the CMPX index shows
something entirely different.
While the CMPX could still be counted as 3 down from the late April highs,
it also opens the door to five down from the 4/7/06 high. In addition,
when you check the candlestick charts and see that there is an open gap at
CMPX 2250, then the "idea" of five down becomes much more likley.
IF that is then true, and the support is clearly
in favor of that "assumption," then the larger trend is still bearish because
there is no such correction as a single five waves down.
However, the next P&F chart of CMPX also opens the door to the
possiability that the actual top was not made on either 4/7 or late April,
but at the spike top on 1/13/2006. As you can see, then the pattern
"could be" an "irregular flat" correction from 1/13/06 to 6/14/06 complete...as
a 3-3-5.
While
I favor the scenario of "a" wave of a larger a-b-c down completed at the 6/14/06
low, for the 4/7/06 high for CMPX, that is still just my opinion and supported
mostly by the "expectations" for a major low in October for the 4-Year Cycle.
PRIOR in blue is still valid
until replace
MARKET SUMMARY AND
COMMENTS
FOR 5/28/2006
INTERMEDIATE TERM
It looks like the NYA Point-Figure chart, below,
"kind of" sums up where it is, and just as likely where the whole U.S.
market currently is, eventhough, there is still a lot of room for rank
speculation at this point.
As
you can see on this chart, and confirmed by the full candlestick chart
of NYA, the index clearly did five waves down from the 5/9/06 top, SO
the "BIG QUESTION" can only be: 1) DID IT MAKE an "irregular top
(with the "b" wave of an irregular flat correction being the last high?)
which has finished and is heading back up in another impulse (bull) wave,
as shown here with green labels, OR 2) is this 5 waves down just the start
up, or at least the "a" wave of, a much larger abc (zig-zag) correction
down for the 10/2006 "expected" low that is "already in progress"? As
shown in by that orange 1-2 and the line breaking below 7950.
WHILE I don't know the answer, I think it's safe to assume
that a hold or break of that line at NYA 7950 will signal that answer.
BY
THE WAY, notice how the BOYZ left a little room between 7900 and 7950,
and I "suspect' this will turn out to be an important point in the future...IF
you can catch my drift?
However, the chart below shows why 7600 is the line
in the sand for a major reversal going into 2007, and a break below it
is highly unlikely.
PRIOR
4/28/06:
Wrong, so much for 8350, since NYA touched another new all
time high at 8491 on Friday. Where to now? You tell me,
maybe MARS!
One thing stock market history tells us is that "the faster
they rise the harder they fall," and this mother is setting
up a monster crash whenever it gets "seriously faded" from a touch
below that 1:1 angle...which I find hard to believe can be very far
away.
OF course, 1982 went straight
up to 10/1987, and 1920 went straight up to 1929 before they "crashed."
IF we get a big "gap
up" OR a big "gap down" day in this index AND it's still below that
1:1 angle, I would be come very "cautious" on it and any of it's big
dogs, like MSFT, IBM, INTEL, and GE.
BASED on 100 points per month and assuming the low
was on 10/10/2002, then the 1:1 angle WILL BE at 43 x 100
=+4300 from 4,295 or 8,595 "ON" 5/10/2006, and
moving up at 100 points per months from there.
The first "preliminary sign" for a reversal would
be to have a "monthly" intra-day (peak) low go below the last "swing
high," which was about 8,150 for NYA. For a full reversal,
which I doubt we see until 2007, but could be the drop for 10/2006 IF
we get the boogeyman, would be a drop below 7650 and the "secondary"
1:1 angle, up from the 3/2003 low.
From what I see here, this index is still inside a
very extended wave three, and that "fits' with the VIX volatility
index which is derived from it, and the "near term" target looks to
be a "double" off the lows...4400-4500 x 2 =8800 or 9000?
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