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PRICE-TIME REVIEW's
Market-View Weekly e1
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1
HISTORIC TIMES
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9/1/00 HIGH to 10/2002
LOW~~
26m or
112 wks |
26m
(112 weeks) x 1.618=
42months 181 weeks
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9/1/00 HIGH to 3/12/03
LOW~~30m or
130 wks
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3/12/03 LOW to 3/12/04
HIGH~~12m or
52 wks
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10/11/02 LOW to 1/17/03
HIGH~~3m or
13 wks
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Possible CIT
DATES >
random
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10/9/02 LOW +112 wks
~~
11/1/04
xxxx
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3/12/03 LOW +130 wks
~~
9/15/2005 xxxx
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8/13/04 LOW +52 wks ~~
8/13/2005 xxxx
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10/02 up to 3/04 up= 17m
8/13/04 low+17m= 1/2006
?
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GANN 5y
9/1//2000
NYA "2000 hi "
to
9/1/2005 HIGH ??
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10/21/05 LOW
+13 wks ~~
1/17--1/21
2006 HIGH?
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10/10/2002
LOW +42
wks
is ~~
5/10/2006 HIGH?
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GANN
1/14/2000
DOW "ATH" to
1/14/2006 HIGH ??
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111111111111111111111111111
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SUNDAY, JUNE 25, 2006 5:00
P.M.
US-EST GSM-5
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--PLEASE SCROLL DOWN
before
SELECTING from MENU--
|
The
updates
for 6/25/06 *
are in progress, and as of at
5:00 PM on 6/25/06 the main Market-View
Menu page
(A1)
, including some of those
items that can be selected
from that menu.
Also note that the new
Weekly Summary
will always be updated first.
For
this
NYA page*,
the last
five
(5)
, of the top
(7)
menu
selections that will be updated or
reviewed, five (5) has/have been
completed so far, and the
PTR comments
for this week are
100%
complete.
*Therefore,
as of 6/25/06
at 5:00 PM this
NYA weekly analysis
is 98% complete.
Please scroll
down and read the next
notice if you have not done
so already.
A. Quiggly Editor
|
FOR SUNDAY,
JUNE 25, 2006:
AND SOME ITEMS
WHICH CAN BE SELECTED AT THE MAIN MARKET-VIEW
MENU,
A1
, HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
THIS PAGE--will be
--UPDATED for 6/25/2006
THE MAJOR NEW COMMENTS
FOR ARE ON THE
NYA ANALYSIS PAGE
AS
"PTR-Comments."
CAUTION: SINCE
the post that appears at the menu selections
will be those for the PRIOR month's POST
UNTIL superseded by this month's updates,
be sure to watch the
dates closely.
Andrew
Quiggly
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--PLEASE
SCROLL DOWN
before SELECTING
from MENU--
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N.Y.S.E. INDEX (NYA):
KEY VALUES FOR PRICE
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NYA--PRIOR WEEKS
as of
6/23/06
*
|
DATES
|
LAST
|
-2WKS
|
-3WKS
|
CLOSE
|
7924
|
7933
|
7965
|
HIGH
|
7984
|
7990
|
8305
|
LOW
|
7833
|
7708
|
7837
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G/L
%
|
-.2%
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-.5%
|
-3.5%
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NYA--HISTORIC LEVELS
updated 6/23/06
|
EVENT
|
LEVEL and DATE
|
ALL TIME HIGH
|
8471cl 8491 id
~~4/28/06
|
MAJOR LOW
|
4474cl 4295id ~~10/10/02
|
2005 HIGH
|
7841cl
7867id
|
2006 HIGH
|
8651 5/9/06 |
JUN.TECH ONLY (71)
|
22 UP with +11%
max.
|
JUN. TECH ONLY
|
12 DN with -9.4% max.
|
JUN. TECH ONLY
|
Avg. if
Up =
+4.3%= 2315
|
JUN. TECH ONLY
|
Avg. if DN = -3.4%= 2144
|
JUN.-
DOW
(1928)
|
42
Up
with +24.3%
max.
|
JUN.- DOW
|
34 DN with -17.7% max.
|
JUN.- DOW
|
Avg. if
Up =
+4.2%= 11636
|
JUN.- DOW
|
Avg. if DN = -3.1%= 10,824
|
|
|
|
NYA--KEY PIVOT LEVELS
updated 6/23/06
|
LEVEL
|
DESCRIPTION
|
>10946
|
FIBONACCI .61x DOW @ 17,771
|
9300 +/-
|
Head & Shoulders
target M2 from N2
|
8948
|
R2 JUNE 2006
|
>8800
|
BULL MANIA--"the sequel"
|
8805
|
Log W9--IF 10/21/05 is w4 low?
|
8700
|
IF 5th wave extension from 10/02
lin
|
>8680
|
Huge a-b-c measured
from 10/02 lin
|
8670
|
R2 Q2 of 2006
|
8651
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NEW 2006 high on 5/9/06 id 8646cl
|
8577
|
Huge w-x-y measured from 3/12/03 lin
|
8568
|
R1 JUNE 2006
|
8590
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"Double" 2x from 4295 low 10/2002
|
8590 +/-
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IF w3=1994-1999
lin=+4300>4290=
|
8590
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R2 Yearly 2006
|
8491
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Prior report close on 4/28/06
|
8451
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R1 Q2
2006
|
8428+/-
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Log W9--IF 4/25/05 is w4 low?
|
8286+/-
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Inverted "Head-Shoulders" M1 >N1
|
8271
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PIVOT JUNE
2006
|
8241
|
Prior report close on 5/26/06 |
8235
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50 day SMA as of 6/23/06
|
8233
|
Prior report close on 3/31/06
|
8112
|
R1 2006
|
8180xx
|
9th wave top IF 10/21/05 was
(w4)
low lin
|
8165
|
Prior report
close on 3/5/06 |
8102
|
PIVOT Q2
2006
|
8031
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Prior report close:
1/6/2005
|
8001
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Prior report close on 2/6/06
|
8023
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S1 Monthly APRIL
2006
|
7924
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CLOSE on 6/23/06
|
7932
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200 day SMA as of 6/23/06 |
7891
|
S1 JUNE 2006
|
7880
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GANN Rule of 1/8ths: 0-7005
= 8/8ths + 9/8= 7880
|
7883
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S1 Q2
2006
|
7867
|
2005 HIGH
12/14/2005
|
7860xxx
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Cal. 9th wave top IF 4/25/05
was (4)
|
7791x
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Cal. 9th wave top from 10/2002
lin close
|
7753
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Yearly >>CLOSE on 12/31/2005
|
7679
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Gann SQ-9 target: 11 rev.
from 10/02
|
7677
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5th top IF 10/02 low
& W5=W1 "log"
|
7661
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1.236 x the 2000-2002
decline (1st Fibo. extension)
|
7594
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S2 JUNE 2006
|
7578
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P 2006 Yearly Pivot
|
7577
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LOG scale ABC (subdivided) from
10/2002 low
|
7551
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5th wave top IF 3/12/03
low and 6/13/03=W1 "lin"
|
7534
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S2 Q2
2006
|
7500
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2000 to 2002 expanding
triangle measurement...lin
|
7346
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Gann Rule of 1/8ths: 7000-4300=
8/8
|
7316
|
GANN Sq-9 1rev
up from 10/02 low
|
7240
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S1 2006
|
7150xx
|
5th WAVE top if
10/02 low & w5=w1 "linear"
|
7000
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MAJOR SUPPORT
& PIVOT prior 9/2000 high
|
6912
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2005 LOW 5/13/2005
|
6857
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P YEARLY PIVOT (2005)
|
6837
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MAJOR HORIZONTAL SUPPORT
1999-2001
|
6800
|
1999, 2000, and 2004 highs.
|
6765
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Fibonacci
number line...huge mean
|
6662
|
S2 2006
|
6200
|
2004 low and 2002
high Dow Theory Sec. pivot |
5700
|
Major horizontal support
|
5700
|
50% retrace of 2002
to 7500 (7/21/05) "linear"
|
5100
|
911 spike low
|
4460
|
10/10/2002 low "daily
close"
|
4400
|
3/2003 low
|
4295
|
10/10/2002 low
"intra-day"
|
4181
|
Fibonacci
Number line--huge mean
|
|
--Please scroll down to continue--
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COMMENTS--NYA INDEX
and the U.S. Market in general.
WORKING THE 6/25/06 UPDATE and 100%
finished as of
6/25/06 5 P.M
|
6/23/06:
Once
again, I'm posting a Gann Swing chart to best illustrate the near term position
of the NYA. The graphic below shows two swing charts, one for SPx and
one for NYA for the period of 5/1/06 to now.
While these two charts
show that these two indexes have completed three waves down and are working
something else since a 6/13/06 low, the next graphic of the CMPX index shows
something entirely different.
While the CMPX could still be counted as 3 down from the late April highs,
it also opens the door to five down from the 4/7/06 high. In addition,
when you check the candlestick charts and see that there is an open gap at
CMPX 2250, then the "idea" of five down becomes much more likley.
IF that is then true, and the support is clearly
in favor of that "assumption," then the larger trend is still bearish because
there is no such correction as a single five waves down.
However, the next P&F chart of CMPX also opens the door to the
possiability that the actual top was not made on either 4/7 or late April,
but at the spike top on 1/13/2006. As you can see, then the pattern
"could be" an "irregular flat" correction from 1/13/06 to 6/14/06 complete...as
a 3-3-5.
While
I favor the scenario of "a" wave of a larger a-b-c down completed at the 6/14/06
low, for the 4/7/06 high for CMPX, that is still just my opinion and supported
mostly by the "expectations" for a major low in October for the 4-Year Cycle.
PRIOR in blue is still valid
until replace
MARKET SUMMARY AND
COMMENTS
FOR 5/28/2006
INTERMEDIATE TERM
It looks like the NYA Point-Figure chart, below,
"kind of" sums up where it is, and just as likely where the whole U.S.
market currently is, eventhough, there is still a lot of room for rank
speculation at this point.
As
you can see on this chart, and confirmed by the full candlestick chart
of NYA, the index clearly did five waves down from the 5/9/06 top, SO
the "BIG QUESTION" can only be: 1) DID IT MAKE an "irregular top
(with the "b" wave of an irregular flat correction being the last high?)
which has finished and is heading back up in another impulse (bull) wave,
as shown here with green labels, OR 2) is this 5 waves down just the start
up, or at least the "a" wave of, a much larger abc (zig-zag) correction
down for the 10/2006 "expected" low that is "already in progress"? As
shown in by that orange 1-2 and the line breaking below 7950.
WHILE I don't know the answer, I think it's safe to assume
that a hold or break of that line at NYA 7950 will signal that answer.
BY
THE WAY, notice how the BOYZ left a little room between 7900 and 7950,
and I "suspect' this will turn out to be an important point in the future...IF
you can catch my drift?
However, the chart below shows why 7600 is the line
in the sand for a major reversal going into 2007, and a break below it
is highly unlikely.
PRIOR
4/28/06:
Wrong, so much for 8350, since NYA touched another new all
time high at 8491 on Friday. Where to now? You tell me,
maybe MARS!
One thing stock market history tells us is that "the faster
they rise the harder they fall," and this mother is setting
up a monster crash whenever it gets "seriously faded" from a touch
below that 1:1 angle...which I find hard to believe can be very far
away.
OF course, 1982 went straight
up to 10/1987, and 1920 went straight up to 1929 before they "crashed."
IF we get a big "gap
up" OR a big "gap down" day in this index AND it's still below that
1:1 angle, I would be come very "cautious" on it and any of it's big
dogs, like MSFT, IBM, INTEL, and GE.
BASED on 100 points per month and assuming the low
was on 10/10/2002, then the 1:1 angle WILL BE at 43 x 100
=+4300 from 4,295 or 8,595 "ON" 5/10/2006, and
moving up at 100 points per months from there.
The first "preliminary sign" for a reversal would
be to have a "monthly" intra-day (peak) low go below the last "swing
high," which was about 8,150 for NYA. For a full reversal,
which I doubt we see until 2007, but could be the drop for 10/2006 IF
we get the boogeyman, would be a drop below 7650 and the "secondary"
1:1 angle, up from the 3/2003 low.
From what I see here, this index is still inside a
very extended wave three, and that "fits' with the VIX volatility
index which is derived from it, and the "near term" target looks to
be a "double" off the lows...4400-4500 x 2 =8800 or 9000?
NEAR TERM:
Since this index made a new all time on the "theoretical troughs"
for the 13 week and 26 week cycle lows, I sure can't stand in here and
say anything bearish until we see some "real bear sign." While
this could be a trap, nearly everything is pointing to higher-highs in
the near future.
FUNDAMENTALS:
There three
"funnymental thing-ees" that I see as very
important for the near term and intermediate term out to 10/2006:
1) The Rate "spread" has already been reversed to a
"weak" normalized position, + "rate spread" with 30y> 10y
and 10y >5y, If the BOYZ can hold or expand this spread
then the economic future is signaled as "fair to good," and with that
"expectation" going to the Herd then I fail to see how the 4-Y cycle
low can do much, if any damage...UNLESS we get the 1998 style Boogeyman.
If, on the other hand, the LEI's roll over here then
they will become the boogeyman, and the spin will be "FED went to
far" and a recession is emanate.
In addition to the "rate spread," the FED FUNDS rate
and their "bias" coming out of the nest meeting, near 5/10 "I think,"
will be huge.
2) Commodity prices, especially oil, still continue
to drive upward and onward, but these could quickly become bear sign
if they suddenly roll over and head down, even if this down is only
a major correction.
3) Japan is now "rumored" to be putting in an end to
the outright "illegal "massive printing" of YEN that they have
been doing since 2002, so this "news" may be very important IF it
actually arrives within the next few days to weeks.
By the way, while I'm not sure how their Central
Bank of Liars have been pushing this into the system without the YEN
being hammered, I "highly suspect" they have been buying dollars
with it "directly, or by buying U.S. investments and real estate with
"it"...direcrtly. Now, IF the FED is a co-conspirator in this deception,
as I suspect they would have to be, then they, the U.S. Fed, will have
a "plan" to absorb the loss of these monthly injections coming from the
Land of the Rising Sun. IF NOT? HUM!
PRIOR from 3/2006
and still "seems" valid
THE "big
news" over the last few weeks is that the FED has already engineered a "NORMLIZATION"
of the Yield Curve, and has even driven the "spread" back to where it was
in early 2005. Therefore, the fundamental herd now sees this as major
Bull "SIGN" of a good to strong economy ahead. In other words, this will
have been a re-run of the 1994-1995 "Ghost Recession" and "Soft Landing"...IF
IT STICKS!
While the next "logical step" for this
scam would typically be for the FED to "lower rates," OR at
least move toward a "bias toward lowering rates," SO they can
come back in later and hose the world down with another round of pumping
money into M2-M3, just like they did in 1995-1996, THIS TIME it
may only take a "pause" in order to trigger the Bell Lap.
Eventhough I still continue to cling to the now "weak
expectations" for some kind of a "serious drop" down into
the fully expected 4-Y and 2-Y cycle lows, in October, especially
in technology, this relentless bullishness has me worried that
we are going to get a 1986 style blow out. While this pattern
could be a re-run of the 1998 drop, which did not make it's "final
peak" until 8/13/98 before making a 10%-15% drop straight down into
10/8/1998--when GreenSpan rolled out the Russian Bond default and Long
Term Capital Boogeymans, with this being a wave five, and not a wave
three like 1998, I would have expected a more pronounced decline here
in 2006.
One last point to keep in mind here,
at least for the longer term, is that the Bull Market "finale"
IS being "setup" on the basis of: A
NEW WAVE OF CAPITAL SPENDING...especially on the basis of another
IT upgrade cycle, which in turn is being setup on the basis of a
new Microsoft operating system UPGRADE...orginally scheduled for release
in 10/2006 but now delayed until 1/2007.
While the "news" about this
has been erratic, so far, we did get a "sniff" of things
to come when GM stated, early in March, that they would spend
$15 billion on IT upgrades "over the next five years." OF
course, "the next five years " is also part of THE NEXT TWO YEARS
an you can be sure that is the "play" being called from the SkyBox...if
you know what I mean?
BY THE WAY, doesn't it seem rather "strange" that a company
battling to stay out of bankruptcy would be spending $15 billion
on IT equipment. Oh, well, when Honda buys them out the
few employees left will have a nice, new, shinny computer to look
at before their pink slip arrives.
For The
Price-Time Review
Andrew Quiggly
Editor
All content is copyright(2005)
PriceTime LLC
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