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WEEKLY
SUMMARY:
for
U.S. Stock and Bond Market's...in general
6/16/2006: "Standard
Weekly Update"
99% finished
on 6/16/06 @ 6:30 PM US-EST
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OVERVIEW
The orginal post from 5/19/06 and the updates for
5/26/06, 6/2/06, and 6/9/06 are in blue text.
Any new comments, additions, or corrections for 6/16/06 are
in red text. All graphics have either been updated or replaced...as
noted.
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FOR 6/16/06:
Well,
the first "fully expected" bounce back up is now underway, or less
likely "completing," but the Boyz did manage to hammer all the indexes down
further during the first part of the week such that they did fill all the
open gaps in the tech-no indexes, AND also made the first successful
"test" of the DOW's huge support-resistance line at 10,700.
While this "final touch" to the first leg down, or so I
say, did do a little more damage to the bulls ego, IT DID NOT wipe out
our old nemesis: "the wedge pattern," AND it only manage to penetrated
one swing low...in NDX.
As shown by these new charts of CMPX and DOW, below,
those wedge patterns have both pushed the limits for a "triangle pattern"
to the extreme, actually past the limits in my view, BUT "maybe" not enough
to fully settle the issue in favor of the Bears.
By the same tokens, that "wave four down scenario"
(from a low made back at 8/2004 OR 4/2005) is now "very unlikely" for
the DOW and the SPX indexes, while being totally voided for the Nasdaq
and IIX indexes.
Also
in my opinion, IF the DOW were to break down below 10,700 "now" then
I "highly suspect" that we would see a real CRASH to 10,000, or even 9700,
and in a hurry. Since I still "expect" either DOW 10,650, 10,140,
or 10,000 to hold here in 2006, then, as you might suspect, I'm looking
for that "nice" to "bonsai" rally back up before the next, and final, hammer
down.
AT
this point, I closed out my "100% short" on QQQQ for the A3 account, AND
I have decided that: "I will cut my trading account back to a maximum
25% long or short position UNLESS all three MSAR signals are back long"...with
all three now still short. The reason for this is that we now have
the "very likely" setup for a wave 1 down completed (or wave W for Dow),
wave 2 (or X) up in progress, and when, or IF, this rally rolls over again
we would be looking a ugly wave 3-C (or Y) down right in the face.
Under
the very negative fundamental tone that I see here, I'm willing to gamble
on my analysis, but not I'm not willing to gamble the whole load on it.
As many of you know, this is the way I trade, in that I'm rarely
not long or short but there are many times when I take the serious money
off the table...now is one of those times.
On the other hand, the Bull's could have it right in that
they have just completed that wedge, and this new Bonsai rally will blow
right on up through the 4-Year Cycle low and catch piles of traders
leaning short. While anything is possible, I have already explained
before why I seriously doubt there will be a blow-out of the 4-Year
Cycle here in 2006...the way there was in 1928 and 1986.
Never the less, I will continue to day trade that 25%, which
is also 1/4th of my whole trading capital, since I moved all funds to
the A3 account back in early May so I could day trade this turn.
AS for the very near term, this little rally up off Wednesday's,
6/14/06, reversal has not proven anything, so it could even still be
part of the decline. Like I said last week, the candles seem to point
to no "serious" rally up until after the start of July...at least for now.
By the way, note that the YIELD CURVE for U.S. interest
rates is "on the verge" of going INVERTED again, with a "spread"
now of only +.13%. Since an inverted yield curve indicates a "weakening
economy," I'm not sure what this NEWs will do IF it actually rolls over
into the negative...again. Personally, I "think" it's Bear Bait,
and will not roll over negative..."for now," but that is nearly pure conjecture
at this point, and could end up being the reason "given" for a FED "pause"
on June 26-27.
The next, and last graphic, below, compares the "internal
strength" of the Nasdaq Composite index (CMPX) for this rally up from
6/14 to date, with that hammer job the Bulls made to start off 2006...for
12/27/05 to 1/14/06. In my opinion, if they are dead serious about
this rally, and/or it is a wedge breakout, THEN we will see some evidence
in these values over the next few days...which is not there now!
For the longer term view, it "looks like" my orginal
estimate was correct, and the SPX will "likely" TEST 1160, 1140, or
1060 as it's 10/2006 low, with
1160 OR 1140 now being "clearly" a more likley target than 1060.
In addition, while DOW 10,650 could hold while SPX goes
to 1140-1160, it now looks more likley that DOW will make bottom at the
last swing low of 10,140, or the major low at 10,000.
A.J. Quiggly
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KEY INTERMEDIATE TERM CHART below:
NDX Gann Analysis
for 5/12/06 & updated on 5/19-,
6/2,
and 6/9 with NDX @ ~1550 on 6/9/2006. New comments for
6/9/06 are in red text.
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SUMMARY-1a FOR
WEEK ENDING ON A FRIDAYS CLOSE:
6/16/06
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DOW INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE
(INDU)
11,013
+123 |
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DOW PROXY
(DIA)
109.9
+1.02
GANN
1:1 @ 112 |
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DOW TRANSPORTS (
TRAN
)
4,636 -104 |
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DOW UTILITY INDEX
(UTIL)
411.7
-1.2
FIBO 377,
610, or 987? |
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NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX
(NYA)
7933 -34
FIBO 10946? |
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SUMMARY-1b
6/16/06
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S&P 500 "cash"
index
(
SPX)
~~ 1,251.2 = -.5
GANN 1:1 @
~1200
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX
(CMPX)
~~ 2,129 =
-6
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NASDAQ 100 INDEX
(NDX)
~~ 1,562 = +12
FIBO 2584 or 4181?
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NASDAQ 100 PROXY (
QQQQ
)
~~ 38.15
= -1.5
GANN 1:2
@ 42.0
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Prior unchanged
for 4/28: Volume and volatility reversed during
that huge "jam job" during mid week, 4/18/06, but then
technology reversed back down to close in the red...why?
Sentiment is still "bullish," and getting more bullish,
when based on the normal "contrarian point of view ."
BY THE
WAY, the advance to decline volume put in a 8:1 up
day during that Tuesday jam job, and that makes this the
likely "kick off" to a much higher rally UNLESS we see
a down day near 1:8 in the very near future.
5/19/06: THE DOW put in a 90%
down day on Wednesday, 5/17/06, and this now points to a major
kick-off to the downside or the setup for a "mini-trap" next week
and a 90% up day.
While
there is a little "bear sign" around, every time
in comes to crunch time the critters are nowhere to be
found or are just plain being wiped out. Needless to say,
the U.S. stock market is bullish until "proven" otherwise,
by DOW< 11,000, and with the 13 week and 26
weeks cycle troughs having been "blow out" early, like that
1/3-1/13 "jerk-job" to start off 2006, and the most likley
scenario is a new DOW top in the near future and then some kind
of lame "dip" down into the 10/2006 cycle lows.
NOTE that
INTEL
,
IBM
, and
MSFT
are all "bearish" for more of decline., and
that is some of that "weak bear sign."
4/28/06: NOTE that MSFT
dropped 10% this week on some real bogus news: "poor
outlook for the rest of 2006." THIS IS A HUGE KEY
for NDX and NDX is the market key...for a cycle "low" near 10/2006.
5/5/096: Microsoft,
MSFT
, "crashed" on 4/30 from $27.50 to $23,
and it is still consolidating at the lows, at $23.70,
yet the DOW made another new 2006 high today. While
this "clearly" breaks the 3-year rising wedge pattern for
MSFT, to the down side, the Boyz want the bears to know that
this don't mean squat to the overall market.
5/19/06 @ $22.50 and in melt down to a "very likely "retest"
of the 2001-2002 lows at $18-$17, or lower, and on 10/10/2006?
Eventhough this makes a " retest" of the
2001 and 2002 lows, near $18, "seem" nearly certain,
lets not forget the "bear trap" that HPQ pulled off last
year with a downside break from nearly the same pattern.
ALL IN ALL, these upward wedges can be EITHER a "B"
wave up (bear rally), OR only the "a" wave of an even larger "B"
wave UP, like this one in
IBM.
, OR even a "leading
diagonal" (LD) as wave #1 of a new bull market...but
not with MSFT, since the internal (smaller) waves were
3's and not 5's.
5/26/05: MSFT gapped
up off $ 22.8 to make a small reversal, but this looks like
only 4 of 3, or 4 of 3 of (3), of a much further decline...at least
to me!
However, also NOTE that this stock now has
a 3 point "open gap" above it and it's starting to get bullish
news leaked all over the place,
so while $18 looks like a done deal that is not guaranteed. TO
BE sure, the MSFT AND /or INTEL bottoms will be the market bottom
for 10/06 or my name is MUD!
6/9/06:
MSFT is at $21.50 and still a +$4-$5 above it's 2001-2002
low at $17-$18. INTEL is @ $17 and $4 above it's 2002 low of
$13.
6/16/06: At $21, with INTEL
at $17 and still $3 above it's 2002 low at $13.
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BOND
and RATE ANALYSIS SUMMARY
for
week ending: 6/16/06
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U.S. 30Y Bond
"rate"
:
5.172% +.139%
<4.4x
<4.5---5.5>
>6.0XX
LAST week's close @:
5.033%
-.060%
PRIOR week's close @:
5.093% +.012%
PRIOR week's close @:
5.157% +.012%
PRIOR week's close @:
5.145%
-.161%
PRIOR week's close @:
5.298%
-.103%
PRIOR week's close @:
5.195% -.026%
6/16/06: No major changes.
6/9/06: Rates are still in the "sweet spot," and the futures are
now predicting only a 50:50 shot at another 1/4% hike at the 6/26-6/2,
2006, FED meeting.
The way the charts are looking, to me, is that we will get
a small rally in July and then head down into a major low for 10/2006.
If that proves true, then the "Boogeyman" will likely be a "pause"
at the 6/26 meeting, to trigger a July rally, and then some ugly inflation
data thereafter to produce a full blown panic. In conjunction with
oil's "double top" at Fibonacci 89 during the hurricane season no doubt?
However, I still think the BOYZ will need a real Boogeyman
so the FED can pull off a 1998 style "emergency cut," otherwise inflation
is going to put a cap on this up and coming I.T. rally a lot sooner
than mid 2008.
5/12/06:
The Monkey Men "jacked" another +1/4 (.25%) to set the
FED FUNDS at 5%. As I have stated many times over the
last few months, that chart I have of these
FED FUNDS
says that up to 5.50% to 5.75% is "playing
with fire," BUT => 6% would "very likley" signal that "the
stock market TOP" was put in here in 2006, be it a Bear
top or Bull top...which I still say is "very unlikley" to occur.
UPDATED 5/19/06: LEI from ORCD was
up +.3 for April while the U.S. Conference Board LEI was
down -.1 for April, and the projected GDP six months out is
now at only 1.5%...which is just exactly what the FED want's to
see in order to "pause," or even roll out a "cut" IF the BOyz's boogeyman
shows up.
5/5/06: NOT much changing
in bonds this week as the economic data is all over
the place and everyone is waiting on the LEI to come out
on the 12th and 18th, AND for the big FED pow-wow on the 10th...and
their "notes."
4/28/06:
The 2005 high "rate" on the 30Y bond was at 4.85%, near
11/4/2005, and the rate "spread" at that time was +.59%
and "falling." FROM that point to now, we can infer
that bond traders are "expecting" moderately higher inflation
and moderately higher economic growth, eventhough, since
the "spread" is now "rising" (from a -.24% in 2/06 to a +.50%
now), that statement "could" swing to: expecting "moderately
higher inflation and clearly higher growth" in the not too distant
future. Watch the LEI as a key.
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U.S. 5Y T-NOTE
"rate"
:
5.098%
+.158
%
<4.5
<4.6--5.4>
>5.5
LAST week's close @:
4.940%
+.040%
PRIOR week's close @:
4.906%
-.046%
PRIOR week's close @:
4.946%
-.20%
PRIOR week's close @:
4.966%
-.107%
PRIOR week's close @:
5.076%
+.082%
PRIOR week's close @:
4.990%
+.07%
6/6/06: Boy,
there sure is lots of bearish "spin" around for having manipulated the
interest rates right into the "sweet spot" they were going for?
GET IT?
5/26/06: BOY, look at those
BOYZ go to town buying up them thar 5's, so as to give the FED
exactly what they need to "pause." WHY? Near term
rates SHOW near term INFLATION "expectations," from the BOND KINGS
in Japan mostly, and IF these 5's are going down then INFLATION
will go down and the FED can "pause." GET IT?
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U.S. YIELD
SPREAD
(sum
of 3).
6/9/06:
Now back down to only +.14%.
6/9/06:
Now back down to only a +.18% spread, which says the "outlook"
for the economy in the near future is getting even weaker.
We will watch this closely, as it was a leading indicator for the 1987
and 1995 stock market bottoms and reversal.
5/26/05: Back up a little at +.46%
from +.36% last week, BUT most of this spread is between the 30Y
and 5y, which is where the FED has been tying to manipulate it
since the start of 2006. THIS is now a "little strange" since
as the stock market declines the "spread" should open up, go more
positive, but we are getting merely a sideways action as this 1st
"little correction" has come to past.
5/19/06: A lot of "dancing
going on," but the spread is holding in the +.30% to +.50%
area. Eventhough the stock market declined this week,
the "spread" went back down a little, to
+.36%
...opposite of what is expected and points to a weaker economy
in Q3-Q4 of 2006. OF course, the STOCK MARKET is the #1
"leading" AND "co-incident" indicator of future GDP.
5/5/06: Down a little,
at a
+.41% this week and down from
+.50% last week. This is some typical action since the "spread"
usually moves in the opposite direction as the stock market,
and the market ended up for this week
4/28/06: "Now" looking
like "else" from here. During the last two times that
the "spread" was "jerked" down into the "very weak" inverted
range, just below zero, and then "thrown" back up positive
was in 1986 and 1995. In the 1986 case, the "spread"
was jerked" up to a +1.0 in just 4-5 months, and that "+ spread"
carried the stock market all the way into the 1989 top, as
1987 was "meant to be" a minor correction.
In 1995, another
year ending in "five or six," after being inverted
for only two days, also in January of that year, the "spread"
was "jerked" back positive to a +.81% and then a +.91%
by 10/1995. Furthermore, if you recall, the FED "stopped"
raising rates on 10/10/1995 and the stock market "lift-off"
up into 2000 began from there. GET IT?
PRIOR for 4/14/06: More + @
+.50% and up from
+.30% last week. So, it's
going more "normal" even as the
LEI
(Leading
Economic Indicators) keep coming up neg...of course!
While I have been expecting a economic "double
dip" from 2005 and into 2006, that Indian Summer weather
here in early 2006 may have tanked that idea. However, IF
10/2006 is going to be any kind of low, rather than a full blow-out,
then "the numbers" have to come down soon...or else!
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FED FUNDS
:
6/16/06: Futures still predicting a 50:50
shot for another 1/4% hike at the FED's 6/26-27 meeting, where I think
they will pause.
6/9/06:
Futures now predicting a 50:50 shot for another 1/4% hike at the
FED's 6/26-27 meeting, where I think they will pause.
5/12/06: Now @ 5.00%
since 5/10/06, with the next meeting
ON
"6/26?."
The key that triggered this little
sell-off in stocks was the Boyz throwing a tantrum because
the FED didn't dole out the "pause candy" as they had fully
expected...for now!
Projection: NOW UNKNOWN
for JUNE, with thre futures calling for a 50:50 shot. The
Stock Market "may" withstand one more 1/4 hike without going
off the cliff BUT you can be sure there would a huge sell
off and the drop into 10/2006 would "most likely" ALREADY
BE "in progress."
While the Bulls still "expect"
a pause in the form of some "neutral bias," the FED
"may" still be looking for a 1998 style Boogeyman for the fall
tank job, and a failure to move to neutral "could do it."
Needless to say,
this "next meeting" will ALSO BE HUGE! IF the
"Inflation" numbers stay up and the FED jacks one more time
without reversing their "bias" to "neutral" then look
for a HUGE-HUGE-HUGE stock market Boogeyman by August.
5/9/06: The futures are
now "pricing in" a 65% chance of another 1/4 point
hike. However, in my opinion, this is nothing more than
a Boogeyman rolled out to scare the herd into coughing up
some of their Intel and Microsoft stock, NOW, so they can come
back in "chasing it" right after the 10/2006 cycle low. On the
flip side, IF DOW < 10,946 now then it would look like the
drop down for 10/2006, or sooner, is already in progress.
5/5/06: I lost the news clip, but
MarketWatch said that the futures market was pricing
in a 100% chance for 1/4 point hike here and only a 32%
chance in June...what a surprise.
4/28/06:
The new FED designated LIAR was on the Boob-Tube last
week making his latest monkey "see and do dance" to "set
up" the markets for a "no move," or a "neutral bias," at
the next meeting,...on 5/10/06? While any "market re-action"
could come off after this meeting, now "highly expected"
to be a DO NOTHING or 1/4 point move, should "they" actually
go for another 1/4 and hold the "tightening bias" then shit
will hit the fan.
However, for
now, we have to "assume" that they will "do nothing"
and the markets will "break" hard up into a DOW double
top to celebrate.
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RATES MISC with charts below.
Huge stock rally on TUE.,
4/18, was due to FED minutes saying end of rates hikes
are "near." Wow, we're so surprised. More
likely a UTIL index "save"!
5/5/06: Speaking of those pesky upward wedge patterns
coming up off major lows, this one below, of the 5-Year
T-Note rate, could be, and most likley is, a wave #1 "leading
diagonal" of a new BEAR MARKET in bonds (as rates go up bond
prices go down), since it has "clearly" generated 5 waves up
internally AND also has the required overlap of 4 into 1.
IF THAT IS true, then
where will wave two take these rates? RIGHT!
DOWN! And if
rates fall here then WHY would they IF the market and
economy is strong? RIGHT again! The Boogeyman
shows for a "quick dip" and full reset of the rate "spread."
My advise, don't go
to New York or Washington near 9/11...2006! |
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PTR's INDICATORS SUMMARY
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SENTIMENT
Investors
Intelligence Survey (IIs):
6/16/06: STILL "approaching" a very
rare "cross-over" with bulls falling to 38.7% and bears rising to 34.4%.
6/9/06: Needless to say, it's even more bullish, with bulls at
40.2% and bears at 31.5%. I'm now wondering if this is going to turn
into a re-run of 1987, where the IIs went very bullish in the early spring,
lots of Bears, and then crossed over to very bearish as the die hard
bulls continued to hammered the top all the way out to 10/19/1987.
6/2/06: Looks like we can place
this right along side the 13 week cycle for "currently" being "near
worthless" as an indicator. Now getting more bullish @ 42.6%
bulls and 29.8% bears. I'm going to work on this next week
and see If I can my history...again!
5/26/06: NOW EVEN MORE BULLISH @ 43.8%
bulls and 27.3% bears. In my opinion, we need one more
bull leg up to flip this to bearish, and a DOW "double top" on
7/10/06-8/15/06 would do nicely.
5/19/06: STILL BULLISH
@ 46.3% bulls and 25.3% bears. In my opinion, we need one
more bull leg up to flip this to bearish, and a DOW "double
top" on 7/10/06-8/15/06 would do nicely.
5/12/06: Still @ a bullish 44.3% bulls and 26.8% bears.
5/5/06: NOW even
more bullish with bulls
@ 43.9 % and bears @ 28.6% .
4/28/06: This week it's 48% Bulls & 26% Bears...which
is "usually" more
"bullish."
4/21/06: Last week it was
53.2% bulls and 24.5% bears..which is usually bullish.
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PTR'S
MSAR
on CMPX:
6/16/06: All three
MSAR signals are still short, but I covered my 100% short position in
4Q's today, 6/16/06, in the early afternoon. Some time next week,
I will go back to day trading the QQQQ's basd on the daily signal, however,
I have also cut back the A3 account to only a 25% position until I fell
more confident that this market will not blow UP or DOWN in the near
future.
6/9/06: The daily signal went short on 6/6/06 and
we went 100% short on 6/7 am, taking a small loss over the last two
weeks of day trading. The weekly and monthly signals are still
short, and we are now 100% short in 4Q's with the A3 account, and we
will continue to day trade the daily signal until this turn is resolved.
6/2/06: The daily
signal went back to long on the 5/24/06 bull attack and is still
long as of today's close. The weekly and monthly signals
are still short, and we are still 100% long in 4Q's with the A3 account,
eventhough, I had a buring desire to off load this for the week end.
5/26/06: The weekly AND monthly signals
are still short, BUT the daily signal went long on Wed's bull attack
and we entered a 100% long position in the A3 account...since we
are now day trading this turn and our entry point will be our stop.
5/19/06: Weekly, daily, AND NOW monthly
ALL SHORT. Therefore, the probability is
now "extremely high" that WAVE "B" down of wave pattern ABC
up from the 10/2002 low to 2008 is "in progress" to a 10/2006 low...at
least for the CMPX?
5/12/06:
Monthly
ONLY is now long, as the
Daily
AND
Weekly
MSAR both went short on 5/12/06
.
5/5/06: The daily MSAR
signal went short on Monday's dip and is still short
unless CMPX> 2375. The weekly and monthly MSAR signals
are still long.
I made no changes
to the profolios BUT I will send A3 fully long IF the
CMPX index > 2405 and fully
short IF CMPX < 2270
ALL STILL LONG ON
4/28/06: Only IF CMPX < 2270 would the
weekly and daily flip to short.
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OmniTrader
Summary:
6/16/06: Still just
slightly on the bearish side with 44 short and 37 long on the weekly summary.
6/9/06: Still working but it will clearly be back to full bearish
again.
6/2/06: Still working until 6/4/06 but looks like it's still
right at the pivot between bullish and bearish.
5/26/06: Working...looks
like a neutral position in the daily and weekly.
5/28/06: NO! This has actually gone "very
slightly bearish," and while it may be just the start of a much
larger decline, it is also at the point of a moderate correction
low.
For last week, 5/26/06, the values where "flung"
back hard to the bullish side, so this coming week will determine
whether this is a reversal or a lame move up inside a larger move
still down...what a surprise?
5/19/06: NOW JUST "slightly"
bearish for the first time since the spring of
2005 decline, and while a short term "bounce" is in the works,
I think this is the "start of" a much deeper decline down into 10/2006...probably
after July 4th holiday and the start of the hurricane season.
5/12/06: While I have not
run this yet, check back late Sunday night, I can't be sure
of this, but it looks like it only reverse back down "a
little" and will not confirm anything major. 5/14/06:
YES, and still "slightly bullish" at 43-34.
5/5/06: Eventhough I can't run this until
later tonight, it looks like it went more bullish
again.
YES as of 5/9/07, @ 49-26
4/28/06:
NOW more BULLISH
@ 48 longs verses only 26 shorts.
4/21/06: BACK TO BULLISH
Weekly "was"at
critical
34 longs and 31 shorts
but
it was flipped back hard
bullish after the 4/18 attack.
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OMNI TRADER's
reflex signal
on 4Q's and DIA: This signal is
the final output from the OmiTrader for any single stock or
index...in this case the QQQQ's and the DIA. IT is the
summation of six trading models and >60 "technical indicators."
6/9/06: Working!
But looks like the 4Q weekly signal went to neutral yesterday?
I don't like that as I'm expecting this to syaty underwater until
near the final low...and I damn well hope that wasn't it!
6/9/06: Daily and weekly signals are now short in 4Q's
and DIA. This is most likely a bottom of three down of ?
However, the tech indexes are indicating 5 down to here and not 3, eventhough,
they HVAE NOT shown any "gaps." WHY?
6/2/06:
The weekly signal in 4Q's is NOW SHORT, and the daily signal
is long. The DIA signals are both still long.
5/26/06: The weekly signal
in 4Q's is NOW NEUTRAL, and the daily signal is long. The DIA
signals are both still long.
5/19/06:
Needless to say, QQQQ is now hard down into Bear land.
5/12/06: The key weekly
signal in 4Q's is STILL short from 4/10/2006, and the daily
signal went short on 5/11/06.
5/1/06: Correction!
WRONG! The
QQQQ Reflex "weekly signal" did NOT go long
, as I made a mistake by looking at the daily
signal. However, this does not change my "expectations"
in any time frame.
4/28/06: --
NOW LONG!-- This is more
BULL sign here, and with the table still bullish, I
must resistance any inclination to get bearish. Like
I said, >CMPX 2240, >SPX 1290, and DOW >11,300
is UP until proven otherwise.
OMNI TRADER's reflex signal on 4Q's:
went short on 4/10 AND
is STILL SHORT on 4/21? HUM? This
worries the heck out of me!
|
FED REPOs:
6/16/06; About same!
6/9/06: BOY,
we are not seeing any panic by the FED to throw the breaks on this market
slide, so there is lots of danger in the air.
6/2/06: While the FED is clearly
supporting this bull rally in the near term, they are not hammering
it so hard that they expose themselves as driving for a new DOW
top here in the summer of 2006 or not. For now, I would just
say that it's more bullish than bearish but not giving out any solid
"sign" for the longer term.
5/26/06: FED came right
out of the gate on Monday and started their same old grease job,
and while it's clear they are priming the well to get this flow
going, it's too early to see if they fully intend to pump a
new DOW top on this move...as I still "suspect."
5/19/06:
About the same as last with no big action one way or the other,
but it "looks" to me as if the FED is getting ready to reverse
to bullish again.
5/12/6: The FED REPO's are
just "holding the line" here, after dropping for the 13-26
week cycle lows but not actually making much impact on the
thundering herd. However, we do note that the SL's
are still "hangin" down near some low numbers, and they also
HAVE HAD a very high correlation to the stock market.
5/5/06: IF you lived in
Washington you would have seen your lights dip down
this week as the FED started rolling the free money presses
again.
HOWEVER, even though
they pushed a lot of money into the market and got
it to lift up, in relation to the long term this jam job only
replaced a prior jam that was expiring, and the next effect
was a sideways, or "maintenance," move you might say.
Never the less,
with the 21 day back at $30 billion, after 4-5 weak
$20 billion days made during the last three weeks, this
COULD BE the start of a much larger reversal UP.
In addition, the
Securities Lending was also a mixed bag, eventhough,
it was cleanly stronger than it has been for 2-3 weeks
now.
4/30/06: Latest update:
While there is no doubt that the
FED did cut down the easy money for this "exact" cycle
low date, as they have done so many times in the past,
making them the "primary" cycle manipulator, I'm
not sure what this current "failure to follow the money means,"
since the indexes stayed up near their highs. However,
I have to say that "on the surface" it sure looks VERY BULLISH.
As a matter of fact,
the only caution I can give to the bullish at heart
is that when a cycle low is "wiped out," and the market
fails to rally up hard after it, then this becomes some
"bear sign."
On the other hand,
for the bears, these "bottoming signals" from otherwise
over overbought conditions are also a "caution" signal
for a TRAP.
4/21/06: Neutral
to
slightly bearish
but refuses to confirm a reversal
.
Yes, and same for
this week too...of 4/18-4/21 HUM?
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VIX-VXN:
6/16/06: Hum? The VIX
did spike up through 20 on 6/13, but then dropped hard and clsoe the week
back down at 16.5. As best I can tell, this has made a 1-2-3-4-5
up, bearish, from a low near 4/25/06.
While this could be "all of five," I think it's only 3 of 5 completed
and another 4-5 of 5 to finish the decline at the end of June. There
is also the lesser probability that this has made only a 3 down finished,
with the current position being in wave 4 of a larger five.
6/9/06: BOY what
a scam, as this VIX "just touched" that critical 19 level but did not
penetrate it. Therefore, it "still" looks like we are setup now
for the 1st rally back up as long as VIX stays below 19.
6/2/06: Since the VIX
tagged a bearish 19 back on 5/24/06, it has managed to generate
two sets of 5 waves down, which is bullish and up for the NYSE, as an
a-b-c or (1)-(2) and 1-2. Therefore, it looks like it will start
out next week as bearish for NYSE, reverse either Tue. or Wed., and then
show it's true colors by Friday with a either and new lower-low (higher-high
in NYSE), or another reversal back up. For now, 19> is still
the pivot up and <13.5 the pivot down, and a close >17 is a get
out now signal.
5/26/05: While VIX took out the prior high, a big bear sign,
it also failed to close below 14.0 and give us the "clear" major
reversal sign.
Therefore, we "currently" still have 5 down
from 1/06 to 4/06 and 3 up from 4/06 to 5/19, and only "another"
NEW higher-low and then a higher-high will trigger the all
out disaster horns.
While the VXN looks "even uglier," it's
about the same and either, or both, could still "squeeze"
out one more small, and bullish, 5 down.
5/19/06: BENDS BUT
won't break! Both are going up, and making higher-lows,
BUT still not making the higher-highs we also need to see in order
to confirm a major reversal...those a#@holes!
5/12/06 AND 5/19/06: While
both the VIX and VXN are "looking rather ugly,"
THEY HAVE NOT confirmed a reversal YET, and from what I see,
they may still be able to squeeze out another small 5 in 5
leg up before the actual reversal, comes in as expected...if
it comes in as expected.
5/5/06:
VIX is still falling with the NYSE gaining but I can't
tell what the pattern is, eventhough, it "looks" like it's
"trying to reverse up"...which is bearish.
VIX @
11.5 and VXN @ 14.3. The VXN record low is at 12.6
in 7/2005, and the way this looks is that the NDX is in a
final small leg up, VXN down, that will touch but not break
that record low. IF NOT, it has subdivided and could
go anywhere.
4/28/06:
Little change, with VIX @ 11.59
and VXN @ 15.51. While both are in limbo, the VIX
is still doing five waves down (bullish) while the VXN
is a mess that could be 5x5 or 3x3.
4/21/06: No new
lows in VIX or VXN BUT both are still hanging down
near their all time lows (bullish for NYSE) and neither
have confirmed a reversal back up (bearish). However,
the VIX "looks like" it wants to break down again...which
would be very bullish for one more NYSE
leg up?
|
RISK
6/16/06: I think
we are on track for our fully expected 10/2006 low, BUT with those wedge
patterns still hanging around this would be a damn poor place to get
it wrong and be short...call it +6 and -6.
6/9/06: Who knows for sure? However,
it looks like we are at the bottom of the first leg down and ready
to turn back up, eventhough, the technology candles are saying that no
big rally should come until July? HUM?
6/2/06: Near term is still a flip
of the coin as far as I can tell, but next week should unmask this
beast...one way or the other. FOR now, my estimate of RISK
is +7 to break up and +7 to break down, but jumps to +10 to break
down IF SPX <1240 or DOW <11,000...eventhough, we can also expect
a rally from that level too.
5/26/06: STILL SHORT
TERM oversold but those TECH gaps still are not "fully" filled
either, so flip a coin. FOR me, I say up again and then
down big in late summer. NOW? +7 up and -5 down?
5/19/06: SHORT TERM oversold but those TECH gaps still
are not filled either, so flip a coin. FOR me, I say
up again and then down big in late summer. NOW? +6
up and -5 down?
5/12/06: IF the CMPX <2230 then this jumps
to -6 down and IF CMPX < 2180 then it jumps to -8 down
in a hurry.
5/5/06:
Now appears to be
much higher for those few bears trying to go
short than for any bullish at heart going long. For
now, we rate the 3-4 week RISK @ +9 to move
on up and
only -4
to move down ...on a scale of 0 to+10 and 0 to -10.
|
TORQUE INDICATOR:
TORQUE IND
TABLE:
6/16/06: Torque is not clearly pointing to anything special here, as this
could be a small top to a larger rally going on up or some weak 4 of 5
of something still going down.
6/9/06: The way it looks to me is that the CMPX torque is saying
that it has completed 5 waves down from a high in the area of 4/17/2006.
However, if the monthly candles are correctly pointing to a very
common 5 in 3 pattern down, then they are saying that no big rally should
come until July, and then only be a short one month candle up.
6/10/06: While 6/6/06 was a huge, record, volume day, and the
indexes all closed down, even after a late bull attack, the torque
level by Friday, a -48% offset, HAD NOT exceeded the prior deep level,
a -119% offset, made on 5/17/06.
Therefore, the CMPX sure "looks like" a 1-2-3-4-5 down complete
from a high in the "area of" 4/25/06 to now, but not, necessarily, the
same can be said for the DOW and/or SPX. Either that, or
this is some kind of screwy triangle down with the big thrust coming on
the first leg down...which I doubt.
6/2/06: Now witin the area for a "minor" to "serious"
high, @ +158-+1.10 and +56% offset, but not any screaming overbought
by any means. As best I can tell, this is either that wave 4
top of 5 coming down from 5/9 and still in progress, or that wave 1 or
"a" top of the first small wave going back up.
5/26/06: While there is no doubt that last week's
.60/.91/-119% "could be" a serious to major bottom, I DON't think
so...but that is only an opinion too.
Based on what I see here, this week's torque,
@ 1.25/.101 and 8% is "nothing serious," so it's either a
small 4 up in progress or a 1 of something bigger going back
up...as I suspect in the DOW but not sure of in this CMPX index.
5/19/06: FORGET any "minor
drop" kind of thinking, as this week's Torque readings were "very
negative" at: .60, .91, and a -119% "thrust."
These readings are so strong that
they "compare" with the levels recorded for the 911 panic
sell off in, are we in a "panic" here, in September of 2001
of course and at the beginning of the big decline down from the
2000 all time highs.
This is hard to believe, and it
now worries me that this "little dump" job, of -10% in
CMPX and only -5% in DOW, is the whole damn correction for the
10/2006 cycle lows.
However, after coming to grips with
myself, I'm still of the mind that this is only WAVE "a"
of a larger a-b-c down to 10/2006, where the "c" wave may
end up being a lame "downward sloping diagonal" or some other
"trick" pattern to throw us off the scent.
5/12/06: The daily CMPX torque
is now at a .67 and 1.03, which says this is very likley
to be either a minor low OR the "middle of" an even more
nastier decline that WILL terminate next week...or the
week after for sure. Base on these values, and the "offsets,"
the index is at, roughly, the same position it was on near
3/1-3/10 of 2006...after a 90 point drop. The drop here has
been -100 points, so far, but don't forget about the "open gaps" below.
HOWEVER,
when I look at the net negative volume generated over the
last two weeks, I see that this exceeds even the 3/2005 top,
so this decline could be a lot uglier than I expect, and
even the 10/2006 decline already in progress.
5/5/06: The daily CMPX torque is now at a 1.41 and 1.11,
which says a minor to serious low was
put in and we have not seen a top to this rally.
Just keep in mind that during the first few days of
a rally is when it's the most open to a quick reversal,
and after it builds a little momentum it requires more time to
unwind it. FOR now, it sure looks like another "small" 1-2
and in 3 off the 4/18 cycle low.
4/28/06: While you may
not be able to tell it from the lame action in the
market's tickers, there is a hell of a lot of stock changing
hands. Also, while that big jerk job back on the 18th stood
out big for advancing volume over declining volume, based on
the hourly "tick," the method used by W.C. Garrett tells a different
story. For example, the Up/Dn volume "ratio" on 4/18
was 2.1 and the ratio "today," 4/28/06, was .50. Therefore,
that .47 to the upside (obtained by 1/ 2.1) is very close to the
same as the .50 put in today to the down side. As I warned last
week, a 8:1 or 9:1 up day "usually" means a "bullish kickoff" UNLESS
it is countered within a few days by a bearish slam to the downside.
As you can see, we got that today.
Therefore,
that 8:1 up day is off the table, and we are essentially
back to "dead even." In addition, while I had
been saying that we see no sign of Mr. Bear, he did show
up this week, eventhough, he only managed to hold the line
and not flip anything to bearish.
Regardless
of all this "distribution" or profit taking, I'm still
inclined to run with the Herd AS LONG AS CMPX > 2230-2240...period!
BY the way, a drop below that line "may also" push
the 4Q's below 39.0, and that COULD cause a mini CRASH, so
stay well protected here and ready to move quickly.
By the way,
there was also a
record downside
volume put in today
, with 1.75
billion shares down verses .8 billion up. However,
since volume is now a poor historic indicator due
to the much lower cost of trading we have today, I I wouldn't
read too much into that one way or the other. The ratio
for today, at .50 exactly, has been achieved many times in
the past, and some of those came before major turns to the down
side and many were the BOTTOM of a CIT back up.
For me, CMPX
<2240-2230 is the 1st PIVOT down, and "a little"
more UP is still more likley than not.
PRIOR week 4/21/06: In the near term, it looks
like we are building a "weak" bottom (low), OR the
start of a major decline, but with only two low readings
(.91/1.07 on 4/25 and .81/1.07 on 4/26) it has not developed
yet. In addition, that monster peak back on 1/6/06 is still
"looking like" a kickoff and not a top, but this is where it
will show itself...one way or the other.
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--PLEASE
SCROLL DOWN--
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MAIN TRENDS-SUMMARY
6/9/06
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TREND "OPINION": LONG
WAVE =
--For subscribers
only--
|
TREND "OPINION": INT
TERM=
--For subscribers only--
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TREND "OPINION": NEAR
TERM=
6/16/06:
While I think we have turned back up for awhile
, there is no solid evidence of that as yet, and the major candles
point to no major rally until "after July 1st."
6/9/06: Well,
it unmasked itself and did it's thing all in one move...so now what?
As best I can tell, we are at the bottom of five down, or very,
very, close to the bottom of five down, from a 4/2006 high, and
"most likley" ready to rally up some. However, the candle charts
are indicting that no big rally will hit until July, so I'm totally confused
UNLESS we just consolidate at the lows for a awhile.
6/2/06: SPX for sure,
and just about everything else, has completed an 5-3-5 up off the
low made near 5/24/06. Therefore, this could be anything from
a very bullish (1)-(2) and 1-2 windup for a thrust up, OR a bearish
a-b-c zig-zag as wave 4 of the decline from 5/9 still in progress to
a lower-low then that 5/14 low. Next week should unmask this
beast!
5/26/06: I can't tell
if the market has turned back up already or not. IF it has, then
we only made three waves down and we are at the top of wave "1" or
"a" of something going back up, probability minor, and IF not then
this is a wave "iv" of a-1 something still going down.
While either is doable and likley, I'm inclined
to believe that we are already headed back up for ONE FINAL
""double tap on the coffin lid," OR a new high in DOW... before
the real burial party begins.
5/19/06 Update: Needless
to say, <SPX 1240 AND closing below there confirms that
whatever this mess was up from 4/2005 did indeed end back in
4/2006. I still "think" is the count shown in purple, wave
four, but well see about that soon enough...like next week.
4/28/06: Here is the SPX, below,
you tell me because I don't know? One "thing"
is for sure, it's either bearish OR very-very bullish
because those last two overlaps can only be a string
of 1-2's up, an ending diagonal, or a "running wave 4" going
up big in wave 5 next.
--For subscribers only--
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|
MISC CHARTS IIX with
updates
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--For subscribers only--
|
6/9/06: The open gap at 169 was filled, "exactly",
on 6/6/06, and IIX closed today at 172.
6/2/06: Open gap at 169 was never filled in this index.
5/26/06: IIX "gap is STILL OPEN" as of 5/26/06 !!
So, it looks like "iv" of v" down in this index, but
1 of ? up in others.
5/19/06: Weekly low @ 172 and close @ 175,
which was "just above" the small open gap in the daily chart
@ 169.3. Needless to say, this next "attack" back up
will be for all the marbles, AND IF it should fail, which I think
it will at, or near, the prior 192 high, LOOK out because the
downside will be wave "c" of "B," and very ugly, IF I'm correct.
5/12/06: IIX @ 179, and any lower than
<177 would VERY LIKELY support the count in red and
mean that the decline down into 10/2006 is already in progress.
5/5/06: The IIX index, above,
seems to support an "in small wave four-five up "senerio
for the near term...as long as it's > 178.
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MISC CHARTS CMPX's
Point-Figure chart with updates
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6/9/06:
--For subscribers only--
Needless to say, I much happier being short here than long.
6/2/06: Cloaking run still in effect, as this pattern has not
unmasked itself yet. As you can see, 5 down could have ended near
2140 and this a 1-2 of "something" is working it's way back up OR
CMPX is still hung inside a 5 down and it's only now finishing a 4
top of that 5 down. IMO, it's moving up AS LONG AS it does not
go back below 2140.
5/26/06: 5 down from a 4/06 high is bearish for
the future UNLESS it's part of
an irregular "flat" from a top actually
made in March...which I doubt.
Therefore, for the Technology indexes, but
not necessarily for the DOW, think you are looking at
wave 1 down, "of something," completed on 5/24 and wave 2 up
in progress. IF true, and the odds are with it, then no
one should have to be told what wave 3 down will be like AFTER
this wave 2 rally tops.
5/12/06: OOps! Something wrong in
bull land?
5/5/06: PF chart
for CMPX:
Essentially no change from 4/28/06
CMPX @ 2322
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--PLEASE
SCROLL DOWN-
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|
CYCLES WEEKLY SUMMARY
REVIEWED without changes 6/16/06
|
CYCLES
13 wk:
LOW ~
4/18
Next HIGH @
and
LOW @
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CYCLES
26 wk:
LOW ~4/18
Next HIGH @
and
LOW @
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CYCLES
1Y:
NEXT LOW ~~
HIGH ~~ |
CYCLES
2y:
NEXT LOW ~~
HIGH ~~
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CYCLES
4y:
NEXT LOW ~~
HIGH ~
|
CYCLES
8y:
1962-1970-1978-1986/87-1994/95-2002-2010-2018
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CYCLES
40y:
TOPS:
1888-1928-1968-2008
LOWS:
1894 (center
of 2 recessions) -1934 (center of 1933 depression
and 1938 recession) -1974 (center of 4 recessions) -2014
(center of ?)
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--PLEASE
SCROLL DOWN-
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NEAR TERM CYCLES:
13-WK Cycle is now "looking like" it may have
done a complete "inversion" in the 4/17/06 area, by making a high in
the DOW rather than a low. Since I totally hate inversions, I'll
project both cases going forward UNTIL this is proven true or rejected.
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--For subscribers only--
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--For subscribers only--
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--PLEASE SCROLL
DOWN-
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|
CURRENT ECONOMIC DATA
UPDATED with changes 6/16/06
|
LEI U.S. Conference Board:
LAST:
-.1 April,
+.4 Mar,
-.4 Feb,
+.3 Jan.
next 6/18/06
PRIOR: -.1 March,
-.5
Feb,
+.4 Jan.
next 5/18/06
PRIOR: -.
2 Feb,
+.5 Jan,
+.3 Dec.
next 4/20/06
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LEI OECD for U.S.
LAST: 6/9/06:
+.1 in April
next 7/12/06
PRIOR:
5/12/06: +.3 in March +.5
Feb,
+.2 Jan. next 6/12/06
PRIOR
+.5 Feb,
+.2 Jan.
|
U.S. Productivity:
up 3.5% in 1st quarter
of 2006 as of 5/4/06
|
Unit Labor cost:
Revised down to 1% on 6/1, for Q1, and
it was at 2.5% for Q1 as of 5/4/06...what a scam!
|
U.S. GDP: up to
5.3% in 1st quarter
of 2006 as of 5/26/06.
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COMMODITIES
WEEKY SUMMARY
6/9/06
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UPDATE
GOLD
,
SILVER
, and
COPPER:
All near 26 year highs....made
in 1980!
GOLD= DN to $582.10/oz
and DN from $733/oz
high on 5/1/06??
Silver= DN to $10.18/oz
and DN from $15.01/oz
high on 5/1/06??
Copper=
DN to $3.25/lb and
DN from $4.10 lb
high on 5/1/06??
NEEDLESS to
say, IF those 5/1/06 highs hold, and I think they will, then the
top of the INFLATION data should be 3-6 months into the future from
there...or about 8/1 to 10/1 of 2006...what a surprise??? NOT
if you consider that oil "could" peak right after Hurricane season!
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MISC CHARTS
and COMMENTS: POSTED 4/06 and valid until removed
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--For subscribers only--
BY THE
WAY, note how the Elliott Waves
"tend" to fall on the Gann angles, which is "very common,"
and, in this case, this would be saying that CMPX is "in"
the 5th wave up off the 10/2002 low, or only wave one off the
3/2003 low...which is very unlikley. Furthermore, a
"typical" outcome to be "expected" would be for the next
correction to drop down and bounce off the 1:4 angle coming
up...UNLESS, these 5 waves are some kind of bogus a-b-c up and a-b-c
back down to the 1:2 angle, on 4/2005. In which case, this
is wave C up!
However, it's
also hard to believe that wave "C" would have the
lowest rate of change, and that this index is still hanging
onto that weak 1:2 angle. HUM?
5/5/06: Note
that the 4Q's closed today at 42.2, and just above the exact
1:2 angle up from the 10/2002 low. ALSO NOTE that
for those Ewavers "thinking" that this count could still be
a 1-2-3-4 and "in 5" to a top now, with the 4/25/05 low being
wave #4 and wave #5 being "equal to" wave #1 in just KEEP IN
MIND that the measurement for a wave #5 to equal a wave #1
STOPS HERE. Therefore, any new highs and that idea history.
In addition, the RSI is saying that the 4/25/05 low
was a "major low" and not any wave 4 of 5 at intermediate or
primary degree. Therefore, that means that the 4/25/05 low
is "very likley" to be the bottom of wave B or (2), and this
last wave up from there is either a wave 1 of C-(3) up , or
an irregular "b" wave of a larger "B-(2)" still going down since
the 12/2004 high.
One way or the other, we should get a break down soon,
as wave 2 of C-(3) or as an ugly wave "c" wave down of B. However,
the way it looks to me is that IF it breaks up to that
1:1 angle coming down, from the ATH, before breaking below
the 1:2 angle, it will only fall back to that 1:2 angle
at it's next big correction low...near 10/06 no doubt. IF,
on the other hand, it breaks below that 1:2 angle before breaking
up to that 1:1 angle then it's very likely to drop on down
to the 1:4 angle before starting back up...and that's the near
term bottom line.
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