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WEEKLY SUMMARY:  
for
U.S. Stock and Bond Market's...in general

12/8/2006:   "Standard Weekly Update"

100% finished on 12/8/06 @ 5:45 PM US-EST    

AND "has been" FULLY UPDATED FOR THIS WEEK?
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OVERVIEW
The prior weekly summary post from 10/6/06 to 12/1/06 are well below and in blue text.  Any new post, comments, additions, or modifications made for this week's post, 12/8/06 , are in red text.   All, or most, graphics from prior post have either been updated, will be, or have
been removed.

RISK ALERT:  

UPDATED FOR:  12/1/06 to 12/29/06
TIME PERIOD
Risk <dn
 Risk >up
 SCALE
0-1  week ahead:
 5
 6
 0 is lowest and 10 the highest
0-1  month ahead:
5
 6
 Risk is "to" moving from
0-1  quarter ahead:
 4
 6
 current price or index value!
0-1  year ahead:
4
 7
BULL VS BEARS
+35.6% bulls


CRASH ALERT:  

UPDATED FOR:  12/1/06 to 12/29/06
TIME PERIOD
crash <dn
 spike >up
 SCALE
0-1  week ahead:
 4  typ new yr!
 4         1/2/07?
0 is lowest and 10 the highest
0-1  month ahead:
6 mini  1/2/07
 5         1/2/07?
 Risk is "to" moving from
0-1  quarter ahead:
 4        1/2/07?
 6     >1/22/06?
 current price or index value!
0-1  year ahead:
7   10/07?
 5
RSI to INDEX divergences
>daily all
<no weekly
MSAR
<daily
 <weekly
 >monthly

MSAR TRADING SIGNALS and CHARTS:

    updated 12/8/06  4:30PM

1
Daily: Prior long 8/14-11/27 .  Went short from 11/27-12/5 but NOW back long as of 12/5/06 and still long as of 12/8/06 close.  The daily MSAR would need CMPX <2400 to go back short.

Weekly: Prior long from 8/18/06-11/28 --now short on 11/28/06 & still short as of 12/8/06.  Weekly would need CMPX > 2461 to go back long again.  IF that were to happen anytime real soon, before, 12/21/06, then PTR will move to a 100% trading position...still via  Daily+Weekly MSAR!  

Monthly: still long from 10/12/06

PTR's capital POSITION in QQQQ is STILL:

10/24/06: Moved up from 25% to >50% while still short term "swing trading" via the DAILY MSAR signal...same as of 12/8/06

IN ADDITION, as we see it "now," PTR will go 100% via the daily MSAR signal IF Dow >12,400 now, OR 75% IF DOW "test" and bounces up from 11,949-12,000 to >12,200...using torque and volatility to detect for a solid "oversold" CIT low at 11,949-12,000.

ALSO, as of 12/1/06, should DOW <11,900 we will increase our position to 75%, at a time when we will very likely be short, and hold that level until either DOW >12,200 or DOW <11,650-11,750 is resolved.

12/8/06: Still at 50%.

MIDWEEK:  
WED.  12/13/06  1:00 P.M. US-EST   Still long 50% via Daily MSAR and would need CMPX < ~~ 2,400 to go back short.  Note Weekly is still short and that is a "1 of 3 caution"!
 
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THIS WEEK  on 12/8/06 :
  While the internal indicators become more and more overbought, the Bull Herd continues to drive the bears back against, and behind, that hypothetical "wall of worry."

  The FED Repo Grease, the IIS bull-bear sentiment, and the torque all say this is "prime territory" for a top, and I agree, but the key question is still "how important a top"?  A weak 4 of (3) still up into early Mar. to late May 2007, or something more serious?

BE SURE TO VIEW the SPX's weekly candle chart for the best illustration of the NEAR TERM market position and wave count.

Right now, my best estimate is that the Nasdaq CMPX is "still" inside wave (3) ending or already into (4) of something and "still" moving up...or at least struggling up.  On an Elliott Wave basis, "I think" the evidence best supports one of these three counts listed below...all of which "expect" more upside, at least a "little more" upside, before a "serious" correction, BUT NOT MUCH, and very likely a lot further away from another "major correction."

THE internals on the CMPX, volume, torque, volatility, and it's VXN (options volatility) make me suspect that in the NEAR TERM we are:  

1) Either still inside a small sideways-up-down wave "iv," down, of 5 up, of the larger rally up from 7/18/06 as: (1) up or (3) up, of ((C)) up, to finish X up in late 2007...and/or early 2008.   OR,

2) That small "iv" has already finished and we are starting the final small 5th wave up to finish the whole rally up from the 7/18/06 or 8/12/06 low...which I doubt!

3) OR we subdivide again into a another damn "upward runing correction" that will, or could, drive right on up to "test" the CMPX 38.2% retrace line @ CMPX 2616-2645...The Big Bear ouch-ee for now!

The "idea" behind these counts are well illustrated by the first, and only, chart for this week's summary...the SPX swing chart below.  Just keep in mind that the nice clear CIT's and wave measurements shown on a weekly swing chart are not always as "clean" on the real world bar or candle charts.
ptr
HOWEVER , don't forget that I'm counting from the 7/18/06 low, and while it's "unlikely" that a "higher low" for the big spring-summer 2006 correction could have occurred at the minor lows made in early August, IF that did happen then we have already completed 5 waves up and, more likely than not, that whole damn rally.  In that case, the more likley scenario is that the BOYZ are now working a BULL TRAP where this little weakness over the last two weeks will turn, suddenly, into a mini-crash.

AS for which it is, I would STILL SAY that "the trend should be considered up" unless DOW <12,000, "FOR STARTERS," and then DOW<11,940 to confirm any "possible serious trouble."

In addition to my still bullish bias here in the face of some massive overbought indicators, and a zillion bears screaming for a "correction," I'm  also not convinced that this mother is not going to subdivided again and keep right on trucking all the way to a March-May, 2007, major top.

Remember, if this is a "re-run" of 3/12/03 to 1/26/04 rally, as the BULLS are clearly "trying to pull off," then that rally was "about" 11 months up and 11 months from 7/2006 would be as far out as June 2007.

THE KEY here is as I stated before:  "whether the indexes can continue to stay inside that tight channel up or not"?  IF they do, then forget the indicators until something breaks at least "serious support"...as is definitely NOT the case now.

 BY the way, as an example of just how useful those "overbought" indicators can be, I suggest you read  and careful go over the post I made this week about the "apparent peaks" in FED REPO "grease," for the "deep overbought" highs made on 1/26/04 and 1/10/06 as compared to the current "overbought" conditions.  

From that data, you can see that this market could just as easily roll over here like the 1/26/04 top OR run-on for many more months like the 1/6/06 overbought "something."  Hell, as many may recall, the 3/2003 to 1/2004 rally played with "overbought" to "deeply overbought" indicators all the way from June 2003 to the actual top in 1/2004...and it "could" do it again.

Bottom Line KEY: DOW >12,000 daily close, or >11,946 intr-day, is still up.

 ALSO REMEMBER, that there are also some key BEAR TARGETS here too.  The DOW 12,500-600 area fills a lot of intermediate term Elliott measurements (like W5=W1 for the upward running wave 4 scenario from 10/2002), and the DOW 13,000-13,900 area fills a lot of LongWave(tm) measurements.  In addition, Dec. 10, 2006 is a time target based on the 31 months of the 2000-2002 decline, in Nasdaq and SPX, x 1.618 = 50 months from the 10/10/02 low...as a HIGH?

FOR THIS WEEK, the prior charts posted below are still key:

<<DOW: Tunnel thru Air   10/5/06 w/updates to 12/8>>
1
<<4Q's now >Gann 1:1 angle down   10/19 with updates to 12/8>>

<<DAILY MSAR   12/8/06   new each week>> .  

 Some final KEY POINTS for this LAST week were: 

NEITHER MSFT, IBM, OR INTEL could advance, beyond positions they have held since mid October, eventhough, IBM seems to be the strongest of the bunch and hell bent of taking on a monster line of resistance @ 98.

Looking at the patterns, IBM looks like it will never make it through 98, but IF IT DOES, then it's off to bull heaven and a retest of 144...need I say more?
AS for MSFT , it has also stalled out  at $30 since mid NOV., and while we expect it to eventually break out to a final Bear Rally high near $34, the timing is way out of reach for my crystal ball.   Its Key is wide @ > $34 up and <$21 down. WHAT A SURPRISE?

As for INTEL , it has been correcting since mid NOV. too, and while the rally up from AUG. 5, 06, was a clear 5 waves up, I'm not sure what this BIG BOY TECH TOY is trying to pull off, eventhough, we "HAD" expected it to tag $34 one more time before continuing on down for the final low, near $8-$13 in 2010-2014.  I say "had" here now because it's also forming a wedge that could easily carry it right on down now...with a pop back to $34 later on. Remember the key is >$23.5 up!

The DOW Transports ( TRAN ) finished 5 waves up three weeks ago, from a 9/15/06 low, and it clearly "correcting," most likely before making another "attempt" at a new high AND a confirmation of the DOW's new high via Dow Theory.

This correcting below major resistance is a BULL move, and the HERD want's this spin item bad.   BY the way, the 2006 peak was made at a lower RSI peak than the prior major peak, in 1995, so this is now--without doubt--a final wave "V" of something, eventhough, stock prices and indexes can "run-on for a long time after this final peak in RSI.  IMO, the bull "target" is TRAN at a 6,765 top, while Mr. BEAR says it's already had it's "top" back below 4181, but just fails to admit it for now. 

FUNDAMENTALLY SPEAKING:

I think this next paragraph, below, which was taken from my post for this week's update to the free DRAM monitor, <here> , says it all for the intermediate and longer term view...into 2008. Well, except for that "fake out" or recession thing-ee.!

HOWEVER, let's NOT FORGET that there is a very "good" to "fair" chance that the the Grand Manipulators are setting up a major CYCLE INVERSION or BLOW OUT for this next spring, 2007.  That is to say, while every seasonal cycle in memory for the last 10 years has come in March-July, "I THINK" the BOYZ "may be" working a BEAR TRAP for the spring of 2007, for those who expect cheap prices during that traditionally weak period.

WHY?  Well, that is just my "opinion," or hunch, and it is based solely on the BOYZ "stated" expectations for a "final PC upgrade cycle BASED on the "late release," in early 2007, of MicroSoft's new Windows Vista's operating system

GET IT?

ONE THING IS NOW very clear, IF "the BOYZ" are wrong about that one "more upgrade cycle," typically lasting only 12-18 months at best, as based on Vista or whatever, or this turns out to be a weak upgrade, which is what I expect, THEN the U.S. and the World, especially ASIA, will be on edge of the abyss and looking down into it sooner rather than later.  

However, I still "think" that the markets and economies will not fall off that edge until after 2008...because of China's massive dole out for the summer Olympics.

AFTER THAT?  WOE IS ME!  A massive world economic recession leads the highest probably short list by a factor of 2:1...and that's the good news. OUCH!

BB
PRIOR  12/1/06:  

  Well, as of today, we can see that the fully expected "correction" is now in full bloom.  As a matter of fact, based on torque, this could already be the bottom of the whole correction  IF it's going to be just a very minor one, eventhough, I seriously doubt it's over already.  On the other hand, it's likely to be at--or near--the bottom of just the first leg down if it's going to be a much larger correction.   As for which it is "more likely" to be from here is the "key near term question" that we will be analyzing for this week's summary.

  IF you look through the wave counts for the candlestick charts of the indexes placed on this first graphic, below, you can see that it's a very-very close call between 5 up finish or only 3 up finished and one more small move to go, as a minimum, before the larger correction down.  As I said last week, I think that as long as DOW >11,950 this leads to a small correction and tap on 12,600 before Christmas and IF DOW <11,950 then this is a big boy correction to test 11,650 as a minimum.

12/8/06: VERY LITTLE to no changes for the candle charts below.
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  Below is another graphic, with this one showing the 12/1/06 Gann Swing chart with my Bull verse Bear wave counts added.  As you can see, this CMPX shows why this could go either way, eventhough, I'm partial to the one more up to go--as a minimum--scenario.  By the way, there is no doubt that DOW "did not" make a higher-low on 8/12/06...even IF CMXP di d.

ptr

   Before I get carried away here, try to view the FED REPO analysis that I finally found time to update and go over yesterday.  Based on it--alone--it sure LOOKS LIKE the "internal action" of the overall market, not necessarily any single index, has just made a "very serious top," but not necessarily a "major top."  Wow, that sure helps a lot!

   Since following my analysis through that FED post may be a little messy, I'll try to condense it here, as the key point for the FED money comes down to whether the current market position, and the top made on 11/22/06, is MORE likley "about where it was for":

1) The top made from 1/6/06 to 1/10/06: which was a "thrust" top going "straight up" to start off the 2006 New Year, and which turned out to be a wave 3 top of five waves coming up from a 4/2005 low to a 5/12/06 high. That is to say, the key point for this top is that even while hammering out a massive overbought signal in nearly all indicators, the market itself made a weak correction down to only a minor 1/21/06 low before continuing to "struggle" on up,  for 4-5 more months, before the actual top was made...near 4/21/06 in Nasdaq and 5/10/06 in Dow-SPX.

2) The top made in January of 2004, with different indexes making their tops anywhere from 1/14/04, for SOX, to 2/20/04 for DOW.  For that top, the FED money peaked in mid January of 04', and there was a long sideways and down correction that carried all the way from that 1/2004 peak to the 8/13/04 low in Nasdaq, or to a 10/25/04 low in DOW.

SO, try to look it over and answer the "KEY QUESTION", actually for me and by email if you like, but mostly for yourself.  

MY ANSWER FOR DOW IS: "I think" it's more like the 1/6/2006 top than the 1/2004 top.  IMO, the 11/22/06 top was only a minor top of "3" of (1) of ((5)) going on up "a little" further OR, maybe, the top of "3" of (3) of ((5)) of something going more than "a little" further up.   IN OTHER WORDS...I DON't "think" this is the larger correction down that everyone has been expecting for weeks.

  NOW, in order for me to stand by that analysis, the DOW MUST NOT go below "about" 11,940 intra-day OR 11,986 daily close...as shown by the small green dot on the DOW chart below.  IF IT DOES go below that line THEN we can assume that the rally up from the 7/18/06 low did terminate near 11/22/06, @ DOW 12,361, and the correction now in progress will go much deeper and correct all of that rally...to DOW 11,639 daily close maximum-minimum.  

   In addition, IF DOW goes below that line at 11,639 then that opens the door to all kinds of BIG BEAR scenarios...which we still doubt to see before 2008.

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ON the FUNDAMENTAL basis, here is what "I THINK" is going on:  The LEI (leading economic indicators) turned down in late spring of 06,' with the peak decline being a -.6% for May.  After that, those indicators have been struggling around a -.1% to a +.1% every month since.

SINCE the LEI "should" lead the actual economic NEWS by four months to a year, then WE COULD BE, and I suspect are, just now making the bottom of the actual BAD NEWS and datas...which seems to be fully in sync with bond rates testing major support near 4.5%.

The HERD has always "expected" to get their now "FED GUARANTEED "soft landing," and that was exactly what they priced in during the summer and fall...even to the point of blowing out a 4-Year Cycle (like 1986). HOWEVER, now that the "real economic data" is SO BAD there are many among that HERD who are coming to FEAR that the economy will go into recession and not stop at any "soft landing."

While we, and the rest of the legal world traders will not get "THE TRUE ANSWER" until late winter, I suspect that what is going on here now is that this new found fear is another phony spin job that will get replaced with a "ooops I was just kidding and look at the GDP go" type statement as soon as the BOYZ provide the foddler and cover story for the FED to "lower rates."

NOW, since the U.S. Yield curve reversed back up before touching fully inverted again, today, then I suspect that we are EITHER at the apex of that fear, and the peak of the bad economic news,  OR I'm just plain wrong too and the economy will "dip" it's toe into recession.  

For me, "I think" we can tie the two analysis together and come to EXPECT that as long as the DOW >11,950 the U.S. market is clearly heading up and the economy will make a "soft-landing," Ghost Recession, or Fake Out "as planned."  OR, IF, DOW < 11,900 but stays above 11,600 THEN the "game" is up for grabs," OR IF DOW <11,600 all the bells start ringing, the fire trucks run out, and it opens the door for BIG BEAR.

GEE, I wonder what would happen IF MSFT came out with Vista early, by surprise of course, next week?  Which would be, by the way, right on it's original schedule...BINGO and bear short covering panic supreme.

Oh, I think the actual odds of MSFT doing that are near zero! For what ever that's worth? 

BY THE WAY, let's not forget that even when we have good evidence to support a wave 3-C top of "something,"  the BOYZ can always pull another "subdivision" and "extension"out of the hat.
  
FOR THIS WEEK, the prior charts posted below are still key:

<<DOW: Tunnel thru Air   w/updates>>
1
<<4Q's now >Gann 1:1 angle down   10/19 with updates>>

<<DAILY MSAR   12/1/06   new each week>> .  

 Some final KEY POINTS for this LAST week were: 

NEITHER MSFT, IBM, OR INTEL could advance, and SO they HAVE NOT confirmed any BIG CAP TECH breakout, and, need less to say, the next "retest" of these recent highs will be for all the marbles.

The "frond end" of the U.S. Yield Curve is still deeply inverted, meaning bad economy "dead ahead," with the 13 week rate and FED Funds well above the longer rates (30y, 10y and 5y).  However, the "back end" of the curve HAD BEEN coming closer and closer to going back fully inverted all week until today, when rates "suddenly" reversed course and closed out today with a +.26% spread.

I don't know what triggered this reversal, but that is the kind of move the BULL Herd--and Mr. FED--wants to see.  GET IT?  

NO?   OK!

With the long rates "spread" apart, or "SPREADING NOW," then that is a signal that the "perceptions" and "expecctions" for the economy
"in the "future" are imporving, and all the BULL needs now is some bullish economic news for mid 2007 to flip all long rates up and remove the whole damn INVERSION.  While I suspect that "event" is being preserved for another FED "no-surprise, surprise," rate cut, that is just my loose opinion at this point.  

AJQ
BB
11/24/06 POST
   Since I'm still struggling to get back to normal and get everything caught up to date,  I will continue just updating the DOW index this week in addition to the summary below and those sections noted as updated, in red, on the Subscribers Market-View Menu.  PLEASE VIEW the new Gann and Elliott Wave chart for the DOW index that I posted on Tuesday, 11/22, if you have the time. 

    While last week's action produced little other than more of same old "grind out game" that has been running since August and September,  we are now picking up some WEAK "bear sign" that at least a moderate correction  is "attempting" to set itself up for a CIT...in the very near future.  However, the BULLS are, evidently, flush with money and with the aid of their "silent partner," the U.S. FED and their GreenSpan PUT, they don't want to give back anything.

   This "extreme bullish action" clearly supports our "best estimate" for a re-run of the 3/12/03 to 1/26/04 rally here in 2006-2007...and starting back at the 7/18/06 low.  Never the less, there are also a few good alternative scenarios (wave counts) that could easily appear rather quickly and void that assumption; eventhough, I currently place the odds at 55%-65% in favor of it. 

   NOW, before I get into the "what-if" ALTERNATIVES, let me be absolutely clear about what the "preferred" scenario is.  AS shown on this week's first chart, below, which is the same DOW chart posted for last week, 11/17/06, and only updated today with a new blue dot, the "leg" up in progress and the current intermediate term key is that wave moving up from the 7/18/06 low, @ 10,683, to now.  

ptr

   On this chart, and ONLY for the time being, we show that 7/18/06 low as EITHER a small yellow dot and wave ((4)), the wedge pattern in green labels and lines, of primary degree (where degree really doesn't matter in this case) OR as a wave (2) of ((5)) of "something" going up and as labeled in red with large and small red dots.  While not shown here, we also acknowledge that there is also a "remote" possibility that wave ((4)) for the count in red could have been made back at the 4/25/05 low, eventhough, we think that is real long shot. 

  So, what we are saying here is that there really only two possible wave counts and they are both bullish, right, at least for the intermediate term? RIGHT?  WRONG!  While we "think" that these two counts are the current "best" estimate, there are, unfortunately, three lesser counts that have some "fair to good merit." 

  We will discuss the alternatives below, one bear, one bull, and one big bull, but for now what I AM SAYING "now" is that the re-run of 2003-2004 scenario is the current BIG DOG and so well supported that it should be consider as the ONE and ONLY UNLESS it is PROVEN void.

  IN MY OPINION, for the re-run scenario to be proven VOID, the DOW would 1ST have to drop back below 12,000 and then "close below" 11,965, the November low, to put up the bear warning FLAG.  While this break would "most likely" void that count, and I sure as hell would not be long going below that 11,965 line, only a drop below DOW 11,750 (the 1/14/00 high) AND then 11,650 would actually wipe out that count.  

  IN addition, going below DOW 11,600-650 would not only set off all kinds of alarm bells and trigger a near instant test of 11,000-11,200, it would, in all likelihood, signal a BULL MARKET END here and a much bigger bear leg down in progress, eventhough, only a drop below DOW 10,680 would confirm the Big Bear scenario.

   Therefore, as long as DOW >11,968 then I'm sticking with 1) the "full re-run scenario":  where the DOW stays within a tight channel all the way up into a late spring of 2007 "serious top," OR  2) IF DOW <11,968 BUT >11,600 THEN I'm going with the "subdivided wave three of something up" scenario...shown in red labels, lines, and dots on the chart above.  This count is where this current rally up from the 7/18/06 low will SUBDIVIDE and show itself to be only a lesser wave "1", up from 7/18/06, of (3) of something larger going up...where the wave "2," which would start down soon, could be anything from a minor sideways and down dip, to say 11,968 max., or something much deeper, to say 11,600 max.

   While a "subdivided" wave "2" could theoretically go "back" down to as low as the 7/18/06 low, at DOW 10,680, and still be valid, that would be extremely unlikely, and any drop now of the DOW below 11,600 would be more likely to signal a return to the Bear Market and only become future bull bait!  

  AS FOR THE ALTERNATIVES, the new Bear Count is that this current rally, up from 7/18/06, is actually the final wave five up, (5), after a long "running" wave (4) wedge as shown, and it will terminate a larger wave "V" up soon, at the lower big green dot, and/or even a much larger wave (V) or (III) in 2007 and/or 2008...at the upper big green dot.

  While I doubt this "near term bull top count," I do note that the 12,500 to 12,600 area is a major bulls eye "area" on the long term and intermediate term DOW charts.  For example, for that Bear Count above, the index value "gain" of 1,846, near 12,526, would be about same "gain" made between the 1,846 "gain" made during the 10/10/02 to 12/2/02 rally.  IN addition, the 1942 to 1966 rally would be "about" equal to the 1982 to 2006 rally, both over 24 years...near 12,600-13,200 in 2006! 

  Besides that count, there is the BULL ALTERNATIVE COUNT, that could ALSO turn into a BIG-BIG BULL COUNT IF the DOW keeps going right on up through 13,900 before late 2008.   For the intermediate term, this count would be saying that the March 2005 high was actually the top of wave ((1)), and the DOW is currently working only a wave ((3)) up and not a final wave ((5)) up...as we expect.  The next monthly RSI will signal which.   

  While I contend that the "most likely" AREA for a "FINAL BULL MARKET TOP" would still be the area around 13,900 REGARDLESS of whether this wave is a ((3)) or a ((5)), that "in ((3))" count CLEARLY OPENS THE DOOR to much higher highs if we are wrong.

  THERE YOU HAVE IT, again this week, the BOTTOM LINE comes down to 1) DOW <11,968 breaks the up channel, then <11,750-600 to test 11,000 and below 11k on to Bear Heaven, OR 2) DOW > 12,600 to DOW 13,900 and >13,900 on to test Harry Dent's Bull Heaven.  
 
 FOR the very near term, this cut out from our daily tracking sheet, below, shows that the CMPX has, likley, just completed a small five waves up, and is starting AT least a minor correction.  IF TRUE, DOW <12,000 and 11,964 become HUGE lines in the sand.
ptr
FOR THIS WEEK, the same KEY charts are still valid until otherwise noted:

<<DOW: Tunnel thru Air   w/updates>>
1
<<4Q's now >Gann 1:1 angle down   10/19 with updates>>

<<DAILY MSAR   11/24/06   new>> .  
 
OTHER KEY POINTS ARE STILL:

 1)  IBM, MSFT , and INTEL all continue to struggle and HAVE NOT confirmed a BIG CAP tech breakout.

2) U.S. interest rates continue lower and with the back end of the YIELD CURVE still inverted and the front end on the edge of going back inverted "again"...@ only a +.05% now.  While we had expected the $USD to drop before rates reversed course, on a "fake our" and all clear to the economic data,  and this has now just happened, today, IMO this manipulated "BS" must stop soon or the U.S. is actually going to get a recession...which seems unlikely given that the LEI's are already turned back up.

However, I now "think" the game plan is for "stronger than expected" Holiday splurging to be that "all clear" data...if not, OUCH!  Or HUM?

3) The Investor's Intelligence Sentiment is now up into "serious overbought" territory at 58.5% bulls and 22.3% bears...a difference of +36.2% bulls where anything over +40% will ring major alarm bells for at least a serious top and at least a minor correction.

IMO, this indictator is saying that the HERD either has to make a small top here and let off some steam OR they are going to cram it right up into a huge top sometime in late 2006 or early 2007.  THIS then seems to support the "subdivision" and wave 1 of (3) top scenario, with a nasty wave 2 of (3) down not far away and the low target being DOW 10,600-10,750 and not 12,000-11,968.

ONE WAY or the other, we will let the DAILY MSAR do the actual trading, as it's sure has been good to us here in 2006.

BB  
11/17/06 POST

     For this last week, 11/13/06 to 11/17/06, none of the three Big Tech Toys , MSFT, IBM, nor INTC, were, once again, able to make "much" progress toward a full breakout, eventhough, the BOYZ have managed to hammered Microsoft and IBM right up into the upper-upper edge of the launch pad...@ $29 and $93.

  While this means there is STILL NO CONFIRMATION for a full blown bullish breakout by big cap tech, they are all still looking more bullish than bearish and INTEL now seems to making it's next attack on $23. 

  Nevertheless, unless the BoyZ plan to pull off another trick and drag those big techs up while pulling everything else back down, or correcting the whole mess after a spike up right into a breakout confirmation, I fail to see the bullishness these two tech toys imply, short term,...even If they do break up hard longer term.

   While I do have some weak indicator data to support my "expectations" of a minor or intermediate degree top over the next two to three weeks, those expectations are mostly founded in the wave count for the DOW index that is shown on this week's first chart, for the "summary,"...below.
ptr

  The "key" for this chart is that a "possible" wave ((5)) to match the possible wave (1) up in late 2002 will "hit" somewhere near that 12,529 line shown...which is the exact intra-day measurement when measured in linear scale.  

  In addition to this index target of 12,529 (+/-), and for what it's worth, there is anther major Fibonacci time test coming up too.  This will be for the Nasdaq based indexes and SPX "only," and will be somewhere near 12/10/2006. This  is when the time of the 3/10/2000 to 10/10/2002 decline (at about 31 months down) will be about equal to 1.618 x 31 months up, or about 50 months up, from the 10/2002 low.  This is a key Elliott Wave and Fibonacci time target, and while I have little faith in it, if should "hit" in any serious manner, even if only to force a minor correction, then it would signal a major  DOW time test near 3/14/2007...since the DOW's major decline was 33 months, down from 1/14/2000 to 10/10/2002, and 33m X 1.618 is 53 months and 53 months from 10/10/2002 is about 3/10/2007.

   Eventhough I'm not to hot on this running wave 4 count overall, since the Nasdaq based indexes clearly failed that count, it does explain the massive bullishness breakout for a normally weak summer period...especially in the face of a 4-Year cycle.  That is to say, IF we assume that the 2-Year cycle just came in a  "little" early, 2-4 weeks, as it does tend to trough in late summer or early fall (AUG.-SEPT), and add this "sneak attack" momentum to that of a "possible" wedge breakout then we can understand a 4-Y cycle blow-out...even when the actual President got hammered by the mid term elections.

  ALL and all, my BOTTOM LINE for the near and intermediate term is shown by that black dotted line, labels, and arrow shown on the Dow chart above...at approximately a 60:40 probability estimate. In Ewave terms this "expectation" and count is:  

Still below the top of wave 3 up, from the 7/18/06 low, of wave (3) up, from the 10/13/2005 low, of  wave ((5)) up, meaning primary degree and as shown by the circle symbol on the chart itself, from the 10/2002 low.  This wave ((5)) is still expected to end in 2008 and also terminate wave III, of cycle degree, and the whole Bull Market up since the 1974 low. The key targets for this III top in 2008, or peak in 2007 with a "failed retest" in 2008, is 12,900-13,900 with the extreme for this count being 14,400.

Over the very near term, the DOW charts below seem to be calling for either a 5 up top before long or a subdivision and further highs...which seems more likely to me.

ptr

SOME OTHER KEY CHARTS CONTINUE TO BE:

 <DOW: Tunnel thru Air   w/updates> Be sure to set new Gann Angles up!
  
 <4Q's: Now >Gann 1:1 angle down BUT dead on 1:2 angle up--from below>

<DAILY MSAR 11/17/06   All signals still on BUY-LONG  PTR @ 50%> .  
 
OTHER KEY POINTS AT THIS TIME ARE:

  Trader's sentiment, as gauged by the Investor's Intelligence Survey that we follow, has suddenly jumped up into a "serious overly bullish range," with the key "difference" between bulls and bears at +34% bulls, and the lesser important absolute level of bulls also a "little too high" at +56%.  While this is clearly an "overbought condition," that could "easily" support a "weak to significant" high here of some importance, It's my opinion that any decline here will only be minor and used by Mr. Bull to "slightly deflate this, and other overbought conditions, before continuing on with more rally, AS LONG AS DOW stays above 11,800 through 12/10/06 and >11,650 in 2006.


  U.S. Interest rates continue to drift lower AND the front end of the YIELD CURVE, 13 week and Fed rates verse long rates, is still inverted, with the back-end "spread"," 5y-10y-30y, only flat at best and ONCE AGAIN drifting toward inversion...meaning weak to very-very weak economic conditions still lie ahead...strange?  Very strange! SEE LEI below?

Since this "weakness," or slow down, has been known for some time, it  SHOULD HAVE BEEN "PRICE IN" by the spring to summer 06' correction, but if the actual economic data, or the LEI data, now comes in "worse than expected," then look out below...as a "double dip discount" game plan becomes the play of choice.

BY THE WAY, the OECD LEI data reported on 11/10 was a "bullish" +.1% for September, and the Conference Board's data was also up a "bullish" +.2% for the U.S in October...reported yesterday, 11/16/07.  In addition, the CB "revised" the SEPT . data UP to a whopping +.4.  

Therefore, the "fundamental assumption" now being priced in is likely to be "slow-down over," or never actually existed, and the "expected" weak expansion dead ahead will never materialize!  GET IT NOW?  Merry Christmas while "fighting that wall of worry"?    Ok, NOW explain the drop in interest rates?  HUM?  RIGHT!  More asshole manipulators! 


WATCH DOW 12,529  and +/- 50 for a near term but minor top!
 STILL WATCH Microsoft...hanging at $29 for 2 weeks now?/
STILL WATCH IBM...still "drifting" higher--in a wedge--@ key $93!
STILL WATCH Intel...now making another run at it's key of $23.50! .

  ALL NASDAQ based indexes and the DOW made another new intra-day and daily closing "higher-high" for 2006 last week, and a new ATH for DOW. In my book, there is nothing bearish about this  UNTIL "proven" otherwise!

However, the Dow TRANSPORTS (TRAN), once again, "DID NOT" re-confirm a new DOW all time high via Dow Theory...YET, and I do consider this as some "weak BEAR SIGN until it does confirm.

  With all the major AND trading cycles having been totally wasted by Mr. Mega Bull's agenda, whatever that agenda turns out to be, I can only assume that this rally is "very bullish" until PROVEN otherwise and the trading cycles will not "appear" again until we enter a more bearish period for the  market.  If this assumption is true, the 13 week, 26 week, one year, 2 year, and 4 year cycles are all turned up and bullish until at least 12/25/2006. HUM?

  While there is still a chance that the big 4-Year Cycle will come in very-very late, in November, rather than early--as we now suspect did happen in July--I consider that "Bull Trap" scenario as "remote" for now, and "totally without merit" after 12/1/2006...or after a MSFT and/or IBM breakout!

  OH, one more "thought" for the longer term:  Generally speaking, the last stage of a major economic expansion comes after "real input inflation" has driven up "output price increases" that STICK.  Then, after the input prices for raw materials decline the corporate profits will "stick" and peak at, or even after, the economic peak.   Has anyone else noticed how the price of a 2-liter Coke has increased from the $69-$1.39 range in 2004-5 to the 3 for $5 ($1.66) and $1.09-$1.79 range now at a time when Coke and McDonalds are rolling in profits.  How about Exxon or some other oil giant?  They drove the price of crude and retail gasoline up fast as hell to $3.00 from $1.50, but they sure are slow as molasses to let it "trickle down" to even $2.00...even as they also "roll in profits."

Needless to say, this sure "seems" to be saying that THE TOP can't be any further away than 2008, and maybe not even that far?  Hum for now?  

  By the way, the next longwave "test," for a final super-cycle bull top, will come at "about" 12,500-13,200.  That value is based on a 1982 low, at Dow 772, X 17.4.  The 17.4 is 10.8 x 1.618 and makes the 1982 low to a 12,600-13,200 high "in 2006" equal to 1.618x the rally up from 1942, at 92, to 1966, at 1001..in percentage terms.  

  While I highly doubt this count, the DOW must stay above 11,650 though out 2006 and early 2007 in order to void it.  This is because 1966-1942 is 24 years and 1982+24 years is 2006!   And, if you didn't already know, the first "longwave "test" failed late last month with a new Dow all time high!  That "test" was 1942 to 1966 over 26 years being equal to 1974 to 2000 over 26 years, with the 12,500 Dow index target being "missed" in 2000, at 11,908, in a failed 5th wave trap.  The 12,600-13,200 span at this top is due to the difference between using closing values and intra-day extreme values.

Hey, you know what the clear Bull Killer signal would be?  A price increase that "sticks" for PC's = "productivity game over"!  

PS: Ben did a final " updated" of the 2006 RoadMap , and I "mostly" agree with his conclusions and expectations....which is: the "game" is now down to DOW <11,650 is down and DOW > 13,900-14,400 is longterm breakout to Bull Heaven!


AJQ
PRIOR 11/10/06 Weekly Summary:  

   Well, I'm still alive and "back in the saddle again," eventhough, I'm a long ways from being back to full strength.   I'll tell you one "thing" that is for sure, here in the U.S. anyway, don't get sick enough or break anything to where you have to go top the hospital, since you're far more likley to die from the their super bugs than anything you came in with...A*%+~#&!

   For this week, I'm going to post quite a few new charts and cut the comments back to a minimum.  As based on this first graphic just below, showing the current daily and weekly Gann Swing Charts for the DOW,
it sure "looks like" the DOW index has finished forming the top of (3) up from the "summer of 06' low," made on 7/18/06, as a (1)-(2), then a 1-2-3-4-5 subdivided for wave (3), and is now either already well into a wave (4), as a "double," or just finishing it if that last "little dip" was the whole damn correction.  Of course, until 5 waves up are "proven" then this is still only 3 waves up and could be a bearish a-b-c rather than the 1-2-3-4 of five up we think it is. 

  IF the bullish view is correct, as we think it is, then this index should have little trouble "consolidating" above DOW 11,700 and forming a much more complex top as: ((1)) up of something larger up, most likely III up of a final (V) up...ignoring actual degree labels.  That bullish scenario, and the target for, it are shown by the green labels and comments on the Dow's weekly 'Swing Chart."  While something a "little" more bearish is shown by the orange labels here, there is also a "lesser likely" Bear Count based on the "summer of 06' low" being that "higher-low" made near 8/12/06.  


ptr
   That scenario, which is better illustrated by the red lines and labels on the CMPX chart, as shown on the next graphic, below, would mean that the index is now completing 5 waves up and not 7, such that this next near term correction, in now or starting soon, could be a much deeper, and faster, wave (2) correction down and not just the (4) of (5) of ((1)) up we are expecting.

  By the way, for full Ewave counters, I assume you can also "see" the possibility that we are currently working the "b" wave up of a "irregular flat" wave (2) down after having already top out in five waves up back on 10/28? While "remotely" doable, IMO, the RSI, wave lengths, torque, or volatility in DOW "absolutely do not" support that scenario, eventhough, I can't rule it out for the Nasdaq based indexes.  
  

ptr

  Eventhough  I'm squarely in the Bull camp for now, near term, intermediate term, and longer term (to 2008), it would only take a drop in the DOW to go below that 10,600-700 line to "start" me looking for something a "little" more bearish and a drop below 11,000 to send me into an all out panic.

  This next graphic for this week, below, shows that while the monthly candlestick charts of most indexes support the "idea" of a (1)-(2) and 1-2-3-4-5 of (3) up just completing, or (4) already starting if weak, or just ending if very weak--for some indexes--they cannot entirely weed out that very unlikley scenario of a X wave top here or that wave (1) top here, and now, as based on a 8/12/06 higher-low for the summer of 06' low.

   FOR what little it's worth, my current "gut" expectation is for this pattern to produce "weak" corrections, subdivide again, and run right on up into the late spring of 2007 as "rough" re-run of the 3/12/03 to 1/26/05 rally.  However, the basis of that "gut" feeling was formed before the Democrats took back both houses of the U.S. Congress, which I did not expect.  

   Now, since I also "feel" that the final end game up into 2008 will be "weaker" than what the BOYZ "had" priced in--a return to the status quo where the fox continues to guard  the hen house and the unsupervised FED continues to write free PUT insurance for the always bullish crowd--I'm not so sure about that "re-run" thesis, eventhough, I think the DOW will run up to 13,900 top in 2008 reguardless of the "path" we take to get there.

  On the graphic below, that QQQQ chart shows my full wave count for the Nasdaq based indexes, NDX, CMPX, and IIX, and from it you can see that these indexes are currently "just" poking their heads above the prior 2006 highs.  Typically speaking, in Ewave, if the pattern is to continue on up as bullish, a "valid" bullish breakout to new higher-highs "should" push right on up to "a level" that would support any drop back and "retest" of that prior top, and line of major resistance, from above.   

   Therefore, any "significant" pull back here, especially if it is confirmed by volume and/or volatility, would become instant "Bear Sign."  

ptr

  ALL IN ALL, my current bottom line is that:  this rally up from "the summer of 06' low, be it on 7/18/06 or 8/12/06, was built inside a very tight channel , so far, and for it to continue "right on up" as the re-run of the 3/12/2003 to 1/26/04 rally, like I think it will, IT MUST stay inside, or very-very-tight too that lower channel line.  

   THEREFORE, IF it fails that line, as shown on the Dow chart for the final graphic, below,  THEN lots of BAD SCENARIOS "would" then appear on the radar screen.  In addition, a drop below DOW 10,650 "in the near future" would cause all kinds of ALARM BELLS to "start" ringing and the "best" outcome at that point would be that wave (2) low and right back up again. Needless to say, the "worse" outcome is over the cliff and into the abyss.

   NEVER THE LESS, as long as DOW > 10,800 in the near term only, and 10,600-700 longer term,  THEN I'm still leaning into that "re-run" thesis.

ptr
    For this last week, none of the three Big Tech Toys, MSFT, IBM, and INTC, were able to make "much" progress, eventhough, the BOYZ have hammered Microsoft right to the edge of the launch pad...@ $29.

  While this means there is NO CONFIRMATION for a full blown bullish breakout by big cap tech, they all still look more bullish than bearish.  

 THE KEY CHARTS ARE STILL:

 <<DOW: Tunnel thru Air   w/updates>>

<<4Q's now >Gann 1:1 angle down   10/19  with updates>>

<<DAILY MSAR   11/10/06   new>> .  
 
OTHER KEY POINTS ARE STILL:

 U.S. Interest rates continue to drift lower AND the front end of the YIELD CURVE is still inverted...meaning weak to very weak economic data lies ahead.  While this "weakness," or slow down, has been known for some time, and SHOULD HAVE BEEN "PRICE IN" by the spring to summer 06' correction,  if that data now comes in "worse than expected," then look out below...as a "double dip discount" game plan becomes the play of choice.


WATCH Microsoft !!!   Watch IBM !!!   Up or Down ???

 The NASDAQ indexes all made a new intra-day and daily closing higher-high for 2006 last week.

 The Dow TRANSPORTS (TRAN) "DID NOT" re-confirm a new DOW all time high via Dow Theory...YET!

The U.S.'s OECI "Leading Economic Indicator" for September came in at a +1.0%, when reported on 11/10/06, which now breaks the negative down trend since February 2006.  This is the exact kind of data that the Bull herd has been "pricing in"...since 7/18/2006!

BB and AJQ

 
  Well, I'm sorry to report that our typical operating procedure here at PTR is going from bad to worse, as Andy's wife just called me from the hospital a few hours ago [Friday] to ask me if I could do this week's summary.  

  While the doctors are not sure what his current problem is, they don't think it's linked to his broken leg or the surgery he had recently.  However, from what she tells me, I think he's got an infection in either his whole blood stream or at least somewhere near where they re-pinned his leg.  Eventhough he or Lisa should have realized something bad was wrong before now, the way it sounds is that he was doing so many pain killers that he couldn't feel much of anything.   Hey, Andy, wasn't it a bad sign when 30 Oxy-Cons didn't do the job...Rush Jr?

  Anyway, getting beyond the bad joke, I know I wish him the best and I'm sure our subscribers do too, so I'll throw up something here and hope that it is worthwhile; eventhough, I have been busy, here in Canada, and not following the markets much.  By the way, I only have one or two more weeks of work in Canada, and then one or two more weeks of work at the Cadarache Research Center in France, before I finish my contract and "retire" for 3rd, and final, time.  After that, I should be able to spend more time with the web site.      

  First of all, Andy had just finished a mini essay about "volatility" and ask me to edit it and then upload it to the MISC MENU ...which I did.  While it took me awhile to see his point of view from the charts and data he had posted to that page, I think we are now on the same page at the same time, so to speak, and you should try and read it if possible.

    From what he told me over the phone, and from what I reasoned from that essay and chart, he is saying that SINCE the Dow's current "volatility" is still "AT TREND," now near 1.5% to 1.7%, then it's still very unlikely that the current top is anything more than a minor degree top, or an intermediate degree top at the most.  

   That is to say, in Ewave terms, the DOW, as well as, the majority of all other indexes, looks like they are now working either:  1) a minor wave "4" down, or sideways, of a larger wave (1) of "something" still going up, OR 2) working a lesser degree correction where this is only a wave "iv" of "3" of (1) of "something" going considerably higher before we get the "nasty little" correction, covering about 10 milli-seconds I suspect, that "nearly everyone" seems to think this correction is.  

    If his analysis, and my gut, are correct, then the DOW will reverse back up before dropping below the prior all time high, of 11,750 daily close made on 1/14/2000, or at least before going below 11,650, the prior 2006 "intra-day" high made on 5/10/2006. 

  In addition to these two key support lines, a drop below DOW 11,600 would be a clear break of the lower channel line it has held since the 7/18/06 low, and that would then OPEN THE DOOR to lots of bearish what IF's.  

  OF THESE what if's, should DOW surprise the hell out of us both... somewhat like blowing out a 4y-cycle, the "most likley" pattern instantly becomes a wave (2) down of a larger ((3)) of something still going up, eventually, from those 7/18/2006 lows.  

   For this "most likely" bearish count, only becoming possible and remotely probable IF DOW <11,600, then a drop all the way back to "retest" 10,650 again becomes the maximum bearish side target...as that was the 7/18/06 low and wave (2) cannot go below the start of wave (1).  

   Needless to say, any serious bear talk here is only a remote "reach" at this point, but should the DOW go back below even 11,000 now, and <10,650 for sure, you would not only be looking at the end of the Big Bull Market, but very likely you would be looking down the barrel of the greatest crash in the history of the world...need I warn you more? 

  For this week's summary, and since I'm getting a very late start, I think this first one, and only, Point and Figure chart of the DOW, below, shows our "expectations" rather well, and also points out where we, me and Andy, as well as, one hell of a lot of other near term mini bulls, would be dead wrong.

pricetime

  As you can see for yourself from this chart, this index has "very likely" completed 5 waves up from 7/18/2006, but I agree with Andy in that with such a low "volatility" and with that long last leg up having to be the 5th wave BUT not extended, this "looks" a lot more  like a (1)-(2) and 1-2-3 of (3) to this point...at least as far as I'm concerned.

   Also shown on this chart, you can see why only a drop below DOW 11,600 would trigger the red flags and signal something much more bearish, even if only that "in wave (2) down" scenario that I discussed above...and as shown here on this PF chart in red labels and lines.  

  By the way, as based on the very low "volatility" in the DOW, only 1.8% by our methods, the pattern is more likely something closer to green than red, and maybe even a much more bullish "double subdivision," to where we are dealing with a "minute degree" wave four correction, a "iv", rather than the "minor degree" wave four correction to the "4" I'm showing here in green, near at 11,900.

  Ok, now following up on what Andy said last week and what I had originally posted before that, those four key " BIG DOG TECH TOYS" are all still up for grabs, eventhough, two of the four (MSFT and IBM) are busting at the seems to break up bullish and take out their major, major, over head resistance.  Needless to say, even two of the three "clearly" breaking out would "very likely" confirm the bull leg up into mid 2007. 

  For this last week, the three major toys are still about where they where, except that INTEL is a little weaker than the MSFT or IBM , which have at least managed to tread water at their EXACT lines of resistance. That means, of course, these are still HUGE pivot points to watch for should the HERD attempt a breakout, or breakdown, right after the elections results.

  By the way, while no body probably what's to here by two cents worth on the elections, I'm going to give it anyway.  I think a wild ass guess would be a better description than an opinion, but I think that the DEMO's have a zero chance of winning the Senate, remember that Diabold has 80% of the voting machines in OHIO and 50% of the machines in Tennessee.  While I doubt that they would try to pull another fast one in Ohio, I think there is at least a 70% chance that the FIX is on it both Tennessee and Virginia.

  As for the House of Representatives, it looks like the DEMO's do stand a "fair" chance of taking it back "IF" the weather across the country is "decent" on election day...not like the all day cold rain that put Bush back in office again back in 2004...along with Diabold!  Needless to say, on election day, it's always the poor and working classes who wait to the last minute to vote, eventhough, many times this is by necessity.

  As for how the U.S. markets will react to the elections, I say they run like a scaled dog if the Fox retains control of the Hen House, which is "exactly what the market has "PRICED IN" and expects, or tank back into something complex, ugly, and bearish "looking" IF the DEMO's win both.  As for whether a full DEMO win would terminate the Big Bull early, here and now or in the late spring of 2007, I doubt it, but it would at least bring that scenario back onto the radar screen again.

  By the way, Lisa Quiggly just called me, and she says Andy is felling better and wants to do some work on the site tomorrow, from the hospital, if he is still feeling ok, eventhough, I didn't think they would let him use his lap top in there?  Whatever?

   Oh, he does have an infection, and Lisa says they have an I.V. drip of anti-biotics in and working on him now. 

THE KEY CHARTS ARE STILL:

 <<DOW: Tunnel thru Air>>

<<4Q's now >Gann 1:1 angle down>>

<<DAILY MSAR   11/3/06 >>

BB  

PS: This is Andrew Quiggly, and while I don't feel like running no marathon, yet, but I'm still hanging in there.  I did update the rest of this summary, and I fully agree with Ben's work, but I don't have the energy to finish anything more for this week.

By the way, I did finish another essay on "full employment," and
" unemployment rates ," that I was working on when I had to come back to the hospital, and it still "clearly supports" a top further out in 2007-2008...not that anything is cast in stone.

Oh, and someone needs to tell Ben that it was only 20 Oxy-Cons!  After presenting such a "massive distortion" of the truth, 30 verses only 20, and a mammoth 50% error, you can be sure that I and the rest of "the troops," well at least Lisa and the dog anyway, will expect and DEMAND a full apology. HUM!

AJQ
Prior post for 10/26/06:   The underlying motto now is "can't get enough of those stocks."   While "they," meaning the herd in general, doesn't believe in any old four (4) year cycle, now that the Cattle Herder has told them the path is clear they are bullish maximus...right?   You got it!

  Like I said last week, my opinion is now firmly in the bull camp for a re-run of the 3/2003 to 1/2004 rally, and "nearly" everything I'm seeing so far supports that "assumption," eventhough, we are not totally clear of the launch pad just yet.

  For example, while the Investor's Intelligence Survey is up to 52% bulls and nearing the 55% level that has produced a few "serious" tops over the years, the net difference between bulls and bears is only 22%, and the historic "overbought" level for major tops has been way up in the 40%-50% range. Based on this alone, we should  "expect" a minor top and then a lot more continuation of the rally.   OF course, we don't always get what history dictates either.

  IN My opinion, the key charts are still the DOW a this link: <Tunnel thru Air> and the Nasdaq's proxy (QQQQ) at this link: 4Q's >1:1

  Going back to the "keys" that I have pointed to for the last few weeks, MSFT, INTEL, IBM, and Dell, we see that MSFT came out today, 10/27/06, with "better than expected," but shifty, earnings, and the stock is STILL hung up on the exact key line of resistance...at $28-$29.   Therefore, no bell lap sounding here, yet, and it has a nasty open gap back at $25.

  AS for Intel , it has been slapped back down at $21 again and so it has not even made it up to test its key line at $23 yet.  While it looks more bullish than bearish, it still will have to prove itself on the next "surge."   By the way, as for the 2-year technology cycle, I find it very hard to believe that we have went through October and NOT put in that low.   Therefore, while INTC has not "rung the bell" either, I think it will on the next bull attack.  By the way, it has a minor open gap in its daily chart at $20.

  Then we have IBM , and since it blew right through both $89 and $90, like a hot knife through butter, it "appears" to have broken UP, eventhough, it's now back down and hung up at $90.5...with a daily open gap @ $88.

  All in all, you have to say that the dam failed to hold back the tidal wave surge from these three big dogs tech toys, but while those dams do have some major cracks showing on the surface, none have totally collapsed as yet and are still holding until PROVEN otherwise.

  Needless to say, this all "smells" like a (2) down of something up "in progress" from the June-July lows, or just starting to correct, but I'm not convinced of that by any means. 

   While "I think" that Mr. Cattle Herder could ram this market all the way up into the late spring of 2007 on totally bad news if he needs too,  I have noted that "they" are having a harder time unwinding that "inverted yield curve" and that very "flat" yield spread...that points to at least an ugly "soft landing" unless they do something about it soon.   While I still have confidence that the FED can fix this little problem in no time, and wipe away any bad thoughts about a recession, the BoyZ still may need to roll out a mini boogeyman in order to get the job done, eventhough, the odds are now way down near 40:60 against any major "surprise" and BULL TRAP. 

  As shown by the monthly bar charts on the three indexes below,  DOW, IIX, and NDX, everything I see looks bullish.. While we could be at the top of 3 or even 5 of (1) up, I think we are even more bullish than that and we have subdivided in such a way that we have not even reached the top of 3 of (1) yet. IF I'm wrong, the first BEAR SIGN will be when indexes start dropping below their September highs "AND" their October lows.


price time

  OH, two of the last little "thing-ees" I want to bring up is: 1) that while the BoyZ did manage to put a new high on the Dow UTIL index to help support their "new bull market--from here--in progress thesis via Dow Theory, they have not YET managed to do the same with TRANS, eventhough, they are still hammering it with every loose penny they can find.

  And finally, 2) be sure to view those new post to the MISC MENU if you have the time, especially that one about "full employment."

For The Price-Time Review
Andrew J. Quiggly
Editor
10/20/06:  
     THIS is Andrew Quiggly reporting this week, and while I'm back home from the hospital, I'm still in fairly poor heath and will only make the minimum updates that I feel I can handle until I get my strength back.

   As best I can tell, I would have to say that the odds are now "very-very" high that the U.S. market did indeed have a 4y, 1y, and 13 week cycle, bonsai bullish, BLOW-OUT, and, in addition, it's also very likely that the 2y cycle was also "blown-out," eventhough, it does make it's low more in the summer and could have made an "early low" in June-July...which in turn "weakly supported" the 4y blow-out. 

  While I don't want to get into it again here, and now, this SHOULD BE a huge sign of Mr. BULL, in much the same manner as the 1986 "blow-out" was...at LEAST for the one year ahead from 9-10 of 1986 to the 10/19/1987 crash.

  FOR now, there is nothing to be gained from crying over spilled milk, so to speak, and while I'm absolutely sure this was a big time BEAR TRAP setup by someone, most likely Mr. FED and Mr. Big Oil, there is nothing now to be gained from going down that road either.  For those who want to debate the past then I suggest you review this prior post and tell me who had it right, or this one in the DOW ...even If I didn't nail it when the cycles were blown out way early (for the second time in 100 years!)

Therefore, lets get on with it!

    IF a picture is worth a 1000 words, then this next one should be worth at least 2000 of mine.  From this chart of the Nasdaq proxy (QQQQ), we can see that this index proxy, and the NDX index by direct association of a 40:1 frame, is now setting "AT" or "just on top of" the key Gann 1:1 angle coming down from the all time high (ATH), at 120.5 in 4Q and 4,850 in NDX back in 3/2000.  FOR now, I fail to see why this is anything but BULLISH? 

  Therefore, a QQQQ "double top" at 42-43 "seems to be" the LAST GREAT WHITE hope of the last Great White Bear...which is no longer me!   BE sure to scroll down as I added a PF chart below for 10/27/06. 

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  BASED on nothing more than my own gut felling, I "suspect" that the count and pattern shown in red, above and to the left, is more likely than either of those bullish patterns shown, in green and on the right, OR even something else "a little more bearish for the the VERY NEAR TERM," like a top now and a '"serious" drop back down now, or soon, to fill that open gap "near" 4Q 37.5, or NDX 1538, BEFORE we make new higher-highs.

Added 10/27/06:  By the way, IF you look at this PF chart of the QQQQ, below, you can see that it "seems" to confirm the "((B))" low on 7/18/06, and if true then we can expect a (1) -(2) in progress.
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  HOWEVER, any "pull back" in the near future that forces any of the indexs to drop below the "very tight' channel line they have formed since the June-July lows would be at least some "moderate BEAR SIGN," more likely than not to lead to some kind of correction more than just the "very lame" one which now seems to be in progress...based on Torque.

   BASED on those tight channel lines alone, I would have to say that a drop below even QQQQ 40 is some BEAR SIGN for a deeper correction, but anything >40 is a ticket to ride the Bull Train to Bull Heaven...as in over the cliff  at some point. 

   ALL in all, the CMPX torque and OmniTrader seem to be saying that this current pattern is a bull "attempt" to re-run the whole (A) wave pattern going up from 10/2002 to 12/2004...from a start at the July 2006 low,  OR 2) it's going to be an "attempt" to re-run just the 3-4-5 pattern up from 3/2003 to the 12/2004 high...also from the 7/2006 low.

  THAT is to say, the 7/21/2006 low was EITHER a wave "2" down of a larger 1-2-3-4-5 in (C) going up, or 2) the 7/21/06 low was the major (B) wave low and the current rally is only a wave 1 of 5 of C going up...which "could" produce a nasty "2" of 5 of (C) before the rally continues.

  While the wave counts of the 2004-2006 advance look more like a "b" wave of an a-b-c going down, from 12/2004 to 7/2006--in Nasdaq only--I'm going to ASSUME that it's the more BULLISH SETUP of "in wave (3) extending" I will stick with UNTIL PROVEN otherwise of ((C)) going up from a (2) low on 7/21/2006.  Eventhough, that means that the drop from 12/2004 to 4/2005 was the whole damn (B) decline, and I find that be total crap, that is what .

    AS for what that bearish proof would look like at this point, I would have to see AT LEAST a drop of QQQQ below 38.5 before I would even consider a much more bearish scenario. 

   THEREFORE, the bottom line for this week is that: "I THINK" the NASDAQ toys are in a wave (3) of ((C)) up that will end up being another relentless drive upward to approximately match the long rally from the 3/2003 low to 1/2004 high.  In addition, since that rally covered  about 900-1100 points over 10 months then I'm going to assume that this rally will reach "about" 2900-3100 by 5/2007.
 
  IN ORDER to void this bullish expectations I would need to see CMPX attempt to fill that open gap near 2119, and/or the Democrats take over both houses of the U.S. Congress on Nov. 8, 2006.  Both of which are very-very long shots!

SOME IMPORTANT KEY POINTS FOR THIS WEEK and NEXT are:

1) MSFT "peeked" above it's prior 2006 high, @ $28, and made a love tap on it's 4 year "higher-high" trend line, @ $29, eventhough, it DID NOT break out yet and looks to be at the top of wave 3 or C of something up from it's 6/2006 low...@ $21.

2) IBM blew right trough Fibonacci 89 to tag $92 intra-day, before falling back to the KEY resistance line at 89-90.  While this is also NOT a breakout, yet, it still "looks" a lot more bullish than bearish.  However, there is a large down trend line just above $90, somewhere near 92-94, which is also a Gann 1:2 angle down and that could be some serious resistance or a reversal point...eventhough I doubt it. 

3) INTEL is now "tight" up against it's key resistance at $22.50, but I still "think" it has also turned back up bullish to at least somewhere near $34-$40.

4) Dell is still moving up, @ $25, but it is also still well below it's first key test point @ $29.

5) The BOYZ are trying turn interest rates back up "a little" to confirm NO RECESSION, but the Bond Herd thinks rates should go lower.  For me, since the pattern in the 30Y bond it's 6/30/05 low @ 4.15% was only 3 up to it's 5/31/06 high, at 5.3%, then it sure looks like rates will go lower before any major reversal back up...but even that is a real toss up.   While that would be a perfect boogeyman for the FED to lower the FED rate, and force the yield curve out of it's current inversion (on the front end), I'm not sure what the BOYZ can use fundamentally so "bad" as to force the HERD to sell anything. Maybe the election?

 Of course, on the flip side of this view point we see that "the BOYZ" may not even need "lower rates" to drive this bull market leg in stocks as long as they can continue to drive the stock market higher and force the dollar up with it.  Needless to say, eventually at least, the yield curve will sneek out of it's inversion on it's own if rates just "stabilize" around 5%.

6) While there is absolutely no doubt that this mid term election is going to be huge one for the U.S. and World, I personally do not believe the doom and gloom that the DEMO's will win back either houses of governement...and Wall Street is clearly "pricing in another full Republican victory."

   While the polls seems to think the Right-Wing will abandon their hypocritical liars and perverts in congress, they also thought Kerry would win in 2004 eventhough the Republicans pulled off another "funny number" win...and two in row that went against the "historically accurate" exit pools.   Need I say more about "how" that will happen?

   By the way, IF you value "democracy," and "free elections," then DO NOT watch the documentary that will air on HBO on 11/2/06, I think?  Otherwise, IF you do, then you'll likely to end up like me and start building you a bunker and weapons cache for the eventual American CIVIL WAR-II.

  Hey, anyone out there got a "used" A1 Abrams Tank or an "outdated" F14 TomCat for sale?

7)  OK, getting back to reality, the CMPX TORQUE still refuses to pull back even a little, and this pattern is now beginning to look like the hammer job that run all the way from the spring of 2003 to early 2004, and If that turns out to be true, as it likes like it will, then the pattern is somewhere near the same point on that long rally as that "y" is that I placed on the Bullish chart of QQQQ above, on the bottom right.  That is to say, it looks like the pattern is somewhere near where the 2003 rally was at about June-July of 2003...for what this "real reach" is worth at this point.  

8) Since this is now week 13 of 13 up from the low made on 7/21/06, then we can assume that this is another 13 week cycle blow-out---OR AN INVERTED TOP...like April 24th of 2006 was.  While this "should" lead to a spike down, I have zero confidence in any cycle at this point in time and wouldn't hold my breath looking for it. 

8b) NYA made a new all time high this last week and with the VIX @ 10.3, which is still hanging just above it record low of 9.88...made back in 7/2005.
While this is yet another "negative divergence," so far," but I no longer have any confidence in this value either.

9) In Europe, THE DAX made a new 2006 high and now appears to have completed either a wave 4 low in July, or a 4 of (3)-(C) low in July, and is now working either 5 of (3) up or the whole big wave (5) up...extended no doubt?  

   Here is another chart of QQQQ for this week, below, which shows the more bearish near term assumption that the 7/21/06 low was ((B) and not (2) of ((C)).  Note the Gann 1:1 angle down at 41.5, which is based on the 120.5 all time high, made on 3/10/2000, minus the 79 months from 3/10/2000 to 10/10/2006."
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  9) THE U.S. LEI Conference Board data came out this week and it was a +.1 for the U.S., which, of course, plays right into the BOYZ hand for NOW  showing the herd that "there is no danger of any recession"...after they, the herd, price one in back in the spring.  Boy! What a surprise that would be!

10) On the bearish side, if there is one, the "front end" of the Yield Curve is still inverted, as the Fed and 13 week rates are still higher than the 5y-10y and 30y.  In addition, the "back end" is still only very slightly positive, or "flat," at very weak +.26%...which still, for now, points to a "weak economy" ahead.

11) The IIS sentiment is about where it was for the May 2006 high, at +22% excess bulls, BUT no where near the value it has made at any major historic high...some times as high as +35% to 45% excess bulls.

12) UTIL made another all time high this week, at 447, and so only the Dow TRANSPORTS (TRAN) is yet to confirm this resent new DOW all time high via DOW THEORY.  While I claim this is only the secondary trend, that remains to be seen.

For The Price-Time Review
Andrew J. Quiggly
Editor

PRIOR POST FOR 10/13/06:

HUGE NOTE: If you have not viewed last week's key DOW chart of the current Gann and Elliott wave analysis, please do so NOW.

<DOW: Key chart for long and short term analysis:  10/6/06>

ALSO NOTE, that all three of PTR's MSAR trading signals are now long again, the daily, weekly, and monthly.   While this could be a perfect "Bull Trap," that seems unlikely.  Never the less, we will continue to trade from the daily signal AND also only use 25% of our capital until the danger period of October has expired...AND DOW > 12,000 has been cleared.

  Since the BOYZ managed to accomplish little technically this week, eventhough, they did accomplish their obvious goal of getting the U.S. voting public's mind off their political mess in Washington...and YES, "the Boyz" are all Republicans and "mostly" right wing zealots of BushCo. 

   HEY, come on! If some politician, or political party, bestows a zillion dollars worth of tax cuts on YOU then who are "U" going to support by "trickling down" a few million in direct donations...and then using your companies billions in "short term investments" to day trade it's own stock on "legal" insider information?   RIGHT!

   Anyway, as I set here and watch the American cattle follow the cow in front of them off the cliff again, since they can't see or won't see any further forward than the ASS sticking right front of their face, I just wonder how much of this "rally" has been for political spin purposes and how much of it is "pricing in" another BuchCo "V"ictory...like back on 8/13/04 when the BOYZ started "pricing-in" another BuchCo win in the 2004 elections.

   JUST like then, mid October of 2004, the polls were showing a Democratic victory.  John Kerry had just kicked Dumb-ba-Ya's  stupid ass in the debates, Joe Liberman (then a Democratic VP candidate) showed Cheney out to be the war mongering lunatic everyone says he is, and the DEMOS were "chanting" about how they had put an end to the criminal voting schemes being played out by the REMBO's in Florida and Ohio.

  WRONG!  And, "the Boyz" got it right...again.  How? Only Diabold, the Ohio voting machine manufacture, knows for sure!

   SO, is that what we have going here in the fall of 2006?  Are the BOYZ so sure that their stooges will win again that they have now priced in an end to Social Security, permanent tax cuts for the mega wealthy, and more war for as far as the eye can see?  Sure looks like it to me!  

   On the flip side of that "wildly bullish political estimate" being "priced in" now, we could have, of course, an actual "win" by the DEMOs of either houses of congress.  While winning just the House would be "bad news" for the permanent bullish at heart, a take back of both the House and Senate could be real nasty.  

   However, I'm not convinced that either would lead to any drastic reversal until 2008, since one way or the other, everyone with an I.Q. over room temperature has always known that this Bush Administration's gigantic mess had to be fixed at some point before the U.S. becomes another 1989 Japan.

   So while the outcome to this mid term election could push the TIME for the final top from 2008 into 2007, I can also see the more likely outcome of a sideways round over coming if the DEMO's pull off a major upset and a blow out rally continuation if the REMBO's retain their control. 

  ANYWAY, for this week, the ONLY updates I'm going to make (for the whole site) are contained in the three UPDATE links below, for IBM, INTEL, and MSFT, as Andy and I both "believe" that they are still on the verge of giving the SIGN we are looking for, and until they do...what I we "think" means little to nothing.

    In all likelihood, IF ANY two of these KEYS turn up THEN PTR will increase it's market capital to a 50% or 75% position BUT continue to follow the MSAR daily signal, exclusively, until the mid term elections are over.

   While we like to speculate about where we are heading in order to recognize the road signs along the way, like the political and economics behind those expectations, in the end we trade to make money and protect or hinny regardless of what we "suspect" will happen.

<UPDATE INTEL 10/13>

<UPDATE MSFT 10/13>  

<UPDATE IBM 10/13>

IF YOU HAVE NOT read last week's two key post, at the links below, then PLEASE do so now.

<BIG DOG TECH TOYS ARE KEY  10/6/06 >  
 
<INTEL and MSFT are the key of keys 10/8/06>

1 0/13/06: Nasdaq CMPX and NDX is now "above" it's 1:1 angle down and is VERY LIKELY breaking out bullish.  WATCH MSFT > $30 and INTEL > $23 as KEYS to CONFIRM !!!!

By the way, Andy is back in the Hospital again, and he may not be back for "awhile."

 H ERE is the catch and BOTTOM LINE as I see it:

 1) IF Andy's count is correct then being in (3) of ((5)) extending from a ((4)) low made on 4/25/05 and a (2) of ((5)) low made on 7/18/06, for at least the DOW, says the bull herd will VERY LIKELY ram that market right on up into the late spring of 2007, and with little or no let up.

 2) IF we are actually in wave (1) of that ((5)) extending up, from a ((4)) low made near 7/18/06, THEN a quick and nasty wave (2) down spike can be expected in the very near future before any continuation.  NOTE THAT, the CMPX does have a minor OPEN GAP on it's daily chart way back down near 2100 something, eventhough, there is are never gaps in DJIA...since many of the NYSE trading post open at different times

These two different counts are shown on a CMPX CHART for 10/13/06 .

 In my opinion, no, our opinion, those big tech dogs will signal which count is correct.

BB
PRIOR POST is still valid

10/6/06:

    Well, as much as I hate to admit it, it "looks like" we have reach a spot that I did not expect to see and sure as hell hoped I never would.   That is of course: it now "looks like" the Herd has managed to "blow-out" the 4 year, "presidential", cycle, and maybe even all three major cycle due between 8/21/06 and 10/21/06 .

    That is to say, while the 2-year cycle low "could have been" made as early as that June-July low, whether the July low was a "higher-low" that ended the pattern down from the April-May high or not, it's "extremely unlikley" that the 4-Year cycle would have come in that early OR with that "lame" of a correction drop...of only 900 DOW points (8.6%).

  Now, even IF both of those cycles were "blow-out," or manipulated in "early," by the FED's "pause or no pause" horsing around, that would still leave the 1-year "seasonal" cycle...which HAS CLEARLY NOT been made yet...if it's going to show at all?

   Of course, this low could very easily be "lame" or also "blow-out" if the same manipulators so desire.  

  While I HAVE NOT THROWN IN THE TOWEL YET, my last thin thread of HOPE for "any material 4-Year Cycle low" CAN BE summed up by the KEY PIVOTS in the four Big Dog technology stocks that I made a special report on today..at the MISC MENU. 

   FOR THIS week's full Weekly Summary, and Bottom Line, PLEASE REVIEW at least the top page for THAT REPORT and these four KEY STOCKS...Microsoft, Intel, Ibm, and Dell.

KEY REPORT of current TREND.... <here>  

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    AS for our actual trading, we are still 25% long in QQQQ and will continue to day trade that proxy via the "Daily MSAR signal" unless one of those big dog technology stocks flip to full blown bullish; in which case, we will go back to 100% of our capital in A3 and trading off the Weekly MSAR signal... from there to "the final top."

  On the flip side, IF we do CRASH down to a 4-Year low over the next few days or weeks, most likely only a retest of the June-July lows at the extreme, then we will load the boat with 100% capital and go long at, or near, that low.

  BY THE WAY, since the 13 week cycle has been jammed up for 11 straight weeks, you have to wonder if the BOYZ are going for another "INVERSION" of that cycle, like the late April inversion this spring, AS WELL AS the 4-year cycle...or at least one of them.  IF that were the case, which those four keys stocks should signal one way or the other, then "the top" would "most likley be" between 10/10 and 10/21.

PLEASE try and make time to read this week's UPDATE to DOW THEORY, at this link <here> , or from the Subscribers Home Menu ( A1 ). 

BY THE WAY, see any Bear Sign in that volume data below?    NOT ME!

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Andrew J. Quiggly
Editor
 
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  While it LOOKS LIKE rates will now go up and stocks will make their final drop down into late October, I'm about as sure of that as I am that "inflation is dead on arrival."

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PLEASE SCROLL DOWN through more prior post
to SUMMARY MENU below!
 
SUMMARY MENU-1
--PLEASE SELECT OR SCROLL DOWN FOR MORE PRIOR POST--

MORE PRIOR POST "charts" (going back 12 weeks max.)...older post are now archived.


FULL prior Summary post are on this archive   <here>
--PLEASE SCROLL DOWN-

                Weekly Gains and Losses                     12/3/06
SUMMARY-1a FOR WEEK ENDING  ON A FRIDAY'S CLOSE: 12/3/06
DOW INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE (INDU)   12,307  +124
DOW PROXY (DIA)   123.0   +1.0           GANN 1:1 up @   120    12/10/06
DOW TRANSPORTS ( TRAN )     4,727  +20      FIBO 4181 or 6765 ?
DOW UTILITY INDEX (UTIL)   455  -2            FIBO 377, 610, or 987 ?
NYSE COMP INDEX (NYA)   9,042  +99  ATH 9042  FIBO 10946 ? 6765x
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  SUMMARY-1b                                                                                    12/8/06
S&P 500 "cash" index ( SPX)     ~~ 1,409 = +18       GANN 1:1 up @ ~1300
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (CMPX)   ~~ 2,437  = +21
NASDAQ 100 INDEX (NDX)   ~~ 1,786  = +13          FIBO 2584 or 4181?
NAS 100 PROXY ( QQQQ ) ~ 43.9  -.2  GANN  1:2 @ 45    1:1dn @40
12/1/06:  THIS COULD turn into real trouble here if the Bulls can't ram the Nasdaq stuff up through the bottom of those 1:2 up angles.   However, the backup plan would be to drop down and "retest" the 1:1 angles--from above--and use that JOY toblast up through the 1:2 angle...finally.   OF COURSE, another failure at either angle is not going to BEAR SIGN.

11/24/06" ALL Nasdaq indexes are "dead on" their 1:2 angles up AND THERE IS NO ACTION for either a major Bull or Bear SIGN since the volume, torque, and volatility have all been dropping...even though price continues to hang and get "weak support" to the upside.   

11/17/06: All indexes except TRAN made new higher-high for 2006, and/or
a new all time high, like DOW, again for this week.  

THE Nasdaq based indexes are "tight up under" their 1:2 angles up but now well above their 1:1 angles down, and on the edge of going "moderately bullish" via Mr. Gann's angle method for the first time since 2000.   The Dow
and SPX are well above their 1:1 angles up and the DOW is even above a 4:1
angle up inside a bull square...which never last for long! 

11/10/06: All Nasdaq index are "At" or "just below" their 1:2 angles up BUT ow well above their 1:1 angles down.

11/5/06: NOTE THAT the DOW and DIA are setting on top of their 1:1 angles up.  The Nasdaq indexes, QQQQ, NDX, CMPX, are setting ABOVE their 1:1 angles down and their SQ-9 line at 41.5 in QQQQ.  However, the Nasdaq indexes are also well below their 1:2 angles up...which has now expanded to 44.5 for QQQQ, 1780 for NDx (now at 1703!), and "about" CMPX 2280.

IMO, it's now become "fairly clear" that the Nasdaq will not test the 1:4 angle up, as it should have, but has a near zero chance of getting back to the 1:1 angle up, now near QQQQ 70, SO it is VERY LIKELY that QQQQ and the other Nasdaq based indexes, like IIX, will VERY LIKELY follow their 1:2 angles up, more from bellow than above, all the way to their final top.

Based on 1/2 point per month in QQQQ (along the 1:2 angle up), that means if the index were to continue to run up all the way through to the end of 2008, the QQQQ's would top out somewhere near 44.5 (current value) + 13 (26 months from here to the end of 2008 and /2) or about 57.5...which is just beyond Fibonacci number 55 and the PRIME TARGET based on PTR's  theory.

IF QQQQ can pull this off, and it looks "too weak" right now, that top would be "about" NDX 2,200-2,300, CMPX 2,750-3,000, and IIX 233-300. 

10/6/06: NOTE THAT THE DOW is up under it's 1:1 Gann Angle up AND @ the Square of Price to Time.  In addition, all Nasdaq indexes are just under their huge 1:1 angle coming down from the 2000 ATH.   So, any "fade" here leads to a CRASH but any solid buy action breaks it all out to the upside. HUM?
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KEY INTERMEDIATE KEY TERM CHARTS below:  
(1) of (2) NDX Gann Analysis for 5/12/06 & updated on 5/19- 12/1 with NDX @ ~1775 on 12/1/2006.  New comments for 12/1/06 are in red text...if any!  
OLD RUNNING CHART BELOW--NEW "cleaned up" NDX chart will be <here>   price time review
11/10/03: ALL NASDAQ based INDEXs made a new 2006 "intra-day' high last week, and in most cases a new daily closing high. While this should mean even more highs to come, there is always one case where that is not true, "the top," and many others where that "continuation" is along time coming.

The Nasdaq indexes are now setting JUST BELOW their Gann 1:2 angles up, from the 10/2002 low, BUT are now "well above" their 1:1 angles down.

While this is "very likely" a bullish brerakout, I WOULD sure like to see these indexes get back on top of that 1:2 angle up before I add the next 50% of my capital.

11/5/06: NOTE THAT none of the Nasdaq based indexes have made a new 2006 high since the July 2006 low.

BOTH MSFT and IBM are still "hung up" at their exact line of major overhead resistance, and INTEL is even a "little weaker."
  
THE NDX is at 1703, which is 40 points "above" it's 1:1 angle down and just 80 points below it's 1:2 angle up.   Like I said before, the probability is now very high that all Nasdaq indexes will "roughly" follow their 1:2 angles up right to their final top, which now appears to be setup for either a late fall of 2007 top, with the index high coming as an actual 3 of (5) top with a 2008 lower high being a failed 5th wave top...as in a "crash top," or some time in 2008 as a regular top...as planned!

10/27/06: QQQQ closed at 42.2 and "just" above the 1:1 angle down @ 41.5, but still below the 1:2 angle up at "about" 44-45.

10/20/06: QQQQ closed at 42.0 and above the 1:1 angle down @ 41.5

10/13/06:   NDX is now > it's 1:1 angle down and is VERY LIKELY breaking out bullish.  WATCH MSFT > $30 and INTEL > $23 as KEYS to CONFIRM !!!!

10/6/06: Based on the NDX's monthly candle stick chart, the pattern is
(7) waves up from the July low, which can be either an a-b-c to here OR a nine wave subdivision that is still going up.   

LOOKING at only this chart above, and especially the GANN angles, we see that the NDX has now went ABOVE it's key 1:1 ANGLE from above, eventhough, it just below it's "less important"1:2 angle coming up from below which is near QQQQ 44, or NDX 1760.

Since the prior 2006 high was at 43-1760, then a break on up here would lead to a tap on the 1:2 angle at the exact prior high.  While that may "sould bearish," it's the ACTION that occurs at that "touch" that matters, as the HERD could blow it right on through that angle or reverse course there.  

Based on the FACT, that there we NO GANN traders to FADE that "touch" of the key 1:1 angle from below, then I have to assume this index, and the whole U.S. market by assoiciation, is MORE LIKEY BULLISH THAN BEARISH.

While a break on up to that 44-43 area will likely be a top, the "drop" afterwards is likely to be lame and only touch the 1:1 angle from ABOVE...to test it.  After that:  wave 3 of (C) UP....get it !

9:22/06:   Damn, this rally is is now looking "impulsive," bullish, and I'm very worried about our fully expected cycle lows.  

9/15/06: I now I'm afraid to even say: "The bears backs are against the wall"!

9/1/06: WHAT THE HELL, with NDX back up at 1589 today, it is not that far below the big angles.  The 2:1 angle up from the 10/2002 low is near 1700, and the huge 1:1 angle coming down from the ATH is now at about 1680.

THAT IS to say, by September 10, the 2:1 angle up and the 1:1 angle down will cross at about 1680-1740.  

8/18/06: Wrong!  Another bounce or bull  heaven!  now @ NDX 1576

8/11/06: NDX @ 1480 and 1st KEY target just below @ 1394

7/28/06: A NEW CHART of the QQQQ's showing the current "exact" position of the key Gann angles is here:    <QQQQ  7/28/06>

Bare in mind that the NDX index itself works inside a 40:1 frame to this QQQQ proxy,  and the CMPX index is "loosly" working inside a 50:1 frame to it...and I mean "loosely."

7/28/06: CAUTION..showing 5 down and 3 up on the monthly candles. Therefore, the next "serious" turn down will likely be a 3 of C down...get it?

By the way, "I think" the BOYZ are going for a 3-3-5 flat with a "triangle" in this last C wave down, but it's to early to say for sure. 

7/14/06:   It's now clear that the Nadaq indexes are not running , together as NDX is only 70 points above the 4/2005 low and only 160 above the 8/2004 low.  That is "about" 4.7% lower for 1390 and 10% lower for 1300.    NOTE that 1394 is 20% decline from the 2006 high and 1300 is a 26% drop from there.

Since there is a "weak" rule of thumb that:  a correction of "20% or more" is the start of a new Bear Market, which we watch but have zero faith in, that 1390 could become a major battle ground.

FOR CMPX, a minus 20% drop is near 1890, for SPX it's near 1060, and for DOW it's near 8500...ouch?

7/7/06: Still not resolved and little changed from 5/12/06.  By the way, I did run a monthly MSAR with my MMSAR indicator, a MSAR that uses "torque" rather than ROC as a supervisor, and it's saying that the end of 2004 run up was "corrective" and not an impulse.  

If that is true, which I'm still skeptical of, then that means that the bearish pattern above, in red, is far more likley to be correct then the bull pattern, in green, and , IF that is true, THEN CMPX is "clearly" going up higher, out over  tthe longererm, because there is no such pattern as a single "five waves" up in Elliott Wave Theory.  

HOWEVER, in addition to that longer term "good news," IF this is true, then 1750 is not only the "key" target down, but actually the minimum target for this low "in progress."

6/30/06:  STILL no resolution of this pattern, as it's still up for grabs.

 5/19/06: THE DOW is down nearly 500 points in two weeks and the CMPX is off nearly -200, so how much worse can it get?  A "LITTLE" worse before it "confirms" anything!

However, we can clearly see that the Bears haven't left the country, OR, at least, we can see that Mr. Bull want's to fill those TWO "open gaps" in the technology indexes, WHICH ARE JUST BELOW the current close, at QQQQ  39.47 and NDX 1598...which is my "expectations" for the near term.

5/12/06: The Boogeyman is back...right?  NOT just yet, in my opinion anyway, but he is getting very-very close so stay on your toes and be readyto run for cover or dump and run IF we see any, and I mean any, more decline from here.

THE MAJORITY of the post for 5/12 and before is <here>
--PLEASE SCROLL DOWN-
BOND and RATE ANALYSIS SUMMARY
has been moved back to it's own page
 that can be selected from the MV-MENU     <here>

--PLEASE SCROLL DOWN--
MAIN TRENDS-SUMMARY  
REVIEWED and/or UPDATED on SUNDAY NIGHT       
 LAST UPDATE  12/8/06
TREND "OPINION": LONG WAVE =  

UP in all indexes to early 2008 AS LONG AS the DOW > 11,650 and CMPX >2020.

Current Longwave Elliott Wave count is thought to be:

DOW index only:

In final wave ((5)), primary degree, from 10/10/2002 low that should terminate in either 2007 or 2008, with 2008 being the best time target, and somewhere between 12,900 and 14,400. This top will also terminate a wave III, of cycle degree, Bull Market up from the 1974 low.   The longwave count will then be either:  WI) 1932 to 1966=34 years and a gain of 2440%, W2) from 1966 top to 1974 low over 8 years,  W3) from 1974 to 2008=34 years and anothe rgain of 2440% IF DOW stops at 13,900, and W4) estimate of  either 1x 8y (w2) or 1.618x 8y (w2) or about 8-13 years from 2008 is either 2016 or 2020.

Note that a "fair" count here is: the 1942 low to 1966 rally, of 24 years matching a 1982 to 2006 rally of another 24 years.  The index value for this count targets a DOW peak of about 12,600-13,200.
  
NASDAQ based indexes (NDX, CMPX, and IIX):  All are thought to be working a wave "C" up, of cycle degree, from a "B" low made on 7/18/06 or 4/29/05.  This "C" wave up BEAR MARKET RALLY is expected to terminate in 2007 or 2008, with 2007 being the better time target for these indexes, and somewhere in the area of CMPX 2550-3100, NDX 2300-2450, and/or IIX between 270-310.   After the Bear Rally ends, we expect new major low in 2010 and/or 2014 with CMPX near 987, NDX near 610, and IIX near 55 or 89.   The 2010 or 2014 low would be the Bear Market low to go with a Bull Market top in 2000, and the over all span of this BULL and BEAR, low to low, would be about 40 years from the start of the Nasdaq market in 1971.

This would be a good match for the major longwave troughs we "expect" in DOW, with the spans being 1934 to 1974 and 2014 as the "approximate centers" of multipal recessions-depressions...with the preceeding 40 year peaks in 1928-1968-2008.

11/10/05: STILL NO full confirmation of that uptrend and the market internals are starting to weaken.  CAUTION for the near term but still bullish as long as DOW > 11,908.

Updated 10/27/06:  While not fully confirmed just yet, that UP TREND into a final 2008 high is now solidly reinforced and the probability has improved, in my opinion, from somewhere near 55:45, or 60:40, to 65:35 that this rally will "run" right on up into late spring of 2007...as long as DOW >11,650! 

However, let me also point out that should the HERD continue to jam this current rally straight up to where it "approxmately" matchs the 3/2003 to 1/2004 rally...from the 5/2005 low OR 7/2006 low, then that will likley be the final TOP in price, or index value, with the 2008 high then being much more likley to be a "double top" to that high or even a "failed 5th wave top" to it.


TREND "OPINION": INTERMEDIATE TERM=

11/24/06: same

11/10/06: IMO, the trend did indeed turn up for the final bull leg up into 2008, but that HAS NOT been confirmed just yet.   IN order to do so, we would need to see:  1) DOW NOT < 11,900 with MSFT and IBM breaking out to the upside, OR 2) DOW > 12,650, or 3) DOW not below 11,650 at the end of 2006.

10/12/06:  Well, in the words of Stienbeck, "there is no joy in Mudville, as the mighty Casey has struck out."  In our case, of course, the BIG BEAR has been handed a defeat the likes of which they have not encounterd since 1986.

While I have always warned that any cycle is just one of many forces acting to influence the market at any one time, and they are not chiseled in stone, I have to say that this blow-out was so unlikely that it had to be result of one of greatest market manipulations in history. In addition, when you look back in retrospect you can see that the critical point in time was the EXACT date where the FED "paused" its interest rate campaign, up since 2003, then Im find it hard to believe they were not the master manipulator here.

However, since even out right manipulations are part of the "game," we have to accept this major defeat and move on.  This is way I say that I for one will never play in poker game that has anything but table stakes, as I will never open myself up to some rich dude with a big eneough bank roll to buy any, and all, pots that he so chooses...and that's exacrly what happened here.

Unforunately, there are currently no other "games" to go to, so I have no choice but accept the fact that these sleeze balls can buy the game anything they feel like it, and I either walk away from it entirely, which I may do,  or accept another huge "variable" as part of it.


10/6/06:  Well, that "Herd" trampled right over any bears and rammed a new DOW all time in last week, @ 11,882 close verse the prior 11,750 close made on 1/14/2000.  All in all, this very likley the final bull nail in the Bear coffen for any 4-Year cycle.

IN MY OPINION, while there is an "outside" chance that the market will reverse course and CRASH to a 4-Year cycle low yet this month, that action here makes it look like the probility is 3:2 that all trends are up, or at least the intermediate term and long term trends are up and only the near term being up for grabs.  

However, be sure to read this week's key analysis, " Big Dog Tech Toys are KEY ," from the MISC MENU. 


9/29/06:  The Herd tap danced on a new DOW high BUT DID NOT get the headline number, SO now the Big Bull and Mr. FED will very likley drop down in yet another FAKE OUT "mini crash" AND THEN come right back up and blow out that prior ATH.  

OF course, the date for the HIGH is now 10/16-10/21 of 2006, since that was where the 4-Year cycle LOW "should have been."  Get it?  A fake out "inversion" to confuse their trackers even more.

AS for me, I'm on verge of throwing in the towel and joining the HERD. 

9/22/06: They DIDN'T get it this week eventhough they made another all out attack,  SO, the intermediate trend is?   Flip a coin!

9/15/06:   WRONG!  B@~&%# Bull herd wants that DOW "NEW ALL TIME HIGH" and they just cashed in their bottles and cans to get there...maybe.

9/8/06:  CMPX back down at 2154 and after breaking first support at 2174. While CMX is down for count one, it's still far from being a knocked out. HOWEVER, IF my count is correct, the "3 of C" mini crash is not far away.

9/1/04: CMPX at 2194 , so the trend is STILL DOWN but hanging by a THINNER tread. IF DOW > 11,750, SPX > 1330, and CMPX > 2230 gap then it looks like a BULL blow-out of the 4-Year cycle, EVENTHOUGH,  there will still be danger of an October Boogeyman and CRASH.

8/25/04: CMPX at 2140 , so the trend is STILL DOWN but hanging by a thin tread.  IF DOW > 11,400, SPX > 1330, and CMPX > 2220 then it looks like a BULL blow-out of the 4-Year cycle, EVENTHOUGH,  there will still be danger of an October Boogeyman and CRASH.

8/18/04: CMPX at 2150, so the trend is STILL DOWN but hanging by a thin tread.  IF DOW > 11,400, SPX > 1330, and CMPX > 2220 then it looks like a BULL blow-out of the 4-Year cycle, EVENTHOUGH,  there will still be danger of an October Boogeyman and CRASH.

8/11/06: STILL down into 10/2006 low as long as CMPX < 2190 and >1750
8/4/06:   STILL down into 10/2006 low as long as CMPX < 2190 and >1750
7/21/06: STILL down into 10/2006 low as long as CMPX < 2190 and >1750

7/14/06: STILL down into 10/2006 low as long as CMPX < 2190
7/7/06:   Same as 6/30, down into 10/2006 low as long as CMPX < 2280-2300.
6/30/06: Same as 6/16, down, as long as CMPX < 2280-2290.
6/23/06: Same as 6/16. down.

6/16/06: NOW DOWN in all indexes until a major low out near 9/21 to 10/21 of 2006.  THIS "expectation" is voided and the trend is bullish well before a 10/2006 low IF SPX >1300 AND DOW >11,750.  

6/9/06 update: Since the DOW went below 10,946 and CMPX went below 2140 to 2100, then the "overall" intermediate term trend falls to neutral, eventhough, I "think" it's still going up in DOW before the final leg down into our fully expected 10/2006 cycle low.

6/2/06: Still UP unless SPX <1240 and DOW <11,000-10,946.

5/26/06: Still UP as far as I'm concerned UNLESS DOW < 10,946, and it's MY OPINION that the vast majority of traders should either be out of this market, OR hedged, OR or day trade this turn until the "downside risk" and pattern in progress is better defined.

5/19/06: IN MY OPINION, IF this trend flips to down then the drop down into the 10/2006 cycle low is very, very, likely "already in progress," eventhough, one more minor "bounce' would still be "expected" before the hammer comes down hard.

TREND "OPINION": NEAR TERM=

 12/8/06:  Still acting tired but also still driving upward.  As far as I can tell, it's up for sure unless DOW < 11, 950 and only confirmed down if DOW < 11,650.  Of course, a (2) bottom would also be most likely right at that point as well....11,650.    

 11/24/06: All the markets are very tired but still continue to find a bid, and for now I see no reason to assume the near trend is anything but up until we some "serious' hammering to the downside.  WATCH out for another bogus a-b-c irregular flat as this is now the BULLS favorite "bear trap" to keep the shorts out of position. 


11/17/06: Same as last week, and I still see no solid sign of a reversal. However, with the "sentiment" now up in overbought territory and only a few weeks from where a seriouse top would be made if the indexes continue up, it looks like we will either get a minor to serious correction in a week or two, to deflate these indicators, OR we will hammer this index right on up into a major top in December to early 2007.

11/10/06: While the markets are clearly getting weaker, they are still inside that tight channel up and should be consider bullish as long as they stay there.
As of today, it looks like it would take a drop in the DOW below 11,900 to do that.

10/27/06:  THIS is now week 14 up from the 7/21/06 lows, and since there has not been even a "serious" correction since that low, then I'm assuming this is all part of another long blow-out rally that will match the 3/2003 to 1/2004 rally, which never produced anything more than minor corrections that stayed  inside a tight channel all the way up.

Needless to say, that "tight channel" is the key, and should any of the major index start dropping below it then that becomes the first BEAR SIGN for something more bearish.

10/7/06:   While the near term trend "sould be down," since this week will be week 12 of the last 13 week cycle, I have not seen any confirmation of that as yet...like in torque!

 IF WE fail to fall this week, then watch out for another cycle INVERSION, out near 10/10-10/21, that produces a high rather than a low on the target date.

9/29/06: 10-11 weeks up!  What's that say? Mega bullish right into another May style Bull and Bear trap "inversion" ??

9/22/06:  We are only 3-4 weeks from a 4-Y cycle low time target and the herd is jamming a new all time high into the DOW...say what the hey Willy?

9/15/06: WRONG WAY!   The Bull Herd pulled one here, and now has the edge to make a DOW "NEW ALL TIME HIGH" before...before what?  
A CRASH!
 
9/8/06: The Bears did show up this week...finally, and now the final struggle that has been on-going since late spring is AT HAND.   AS I see it, the odds are 55-45 bears at this point, and jump to 65-35 if CMPX < 2100...with CMPX closing Friday at 2154.

9/1/06:  Looks like the BEARS were still at the beach as little bull and big liar FED man managed to jam everything higher. The way I see it, is either: 1) bears come back next week, and no later, to turn this down into a normal 4-Y low in October, or 2) the Bulls blow-out the 4-year cycle next week, OR this is a setup for a huge mini-crash in October...from a Dow and SPX double top back down to 10, 650 again in just a few days...or maybe just a few hours.

 8/25/06: Market indexes just danced in place this week so nothing has changed and the BEAR has his back to the wall for next week now.

8/18/06: Well, last week's "thesis" was dead wrong, as the herd slammed the CMPX up for five straight days to gain 5% on the week...what the hey?

While that that by itself dosen't bother me, since DOW still did not HOLD  >11, 400, but the fact that the damn SPX cash got > 1294 AND 1301 does have me worried.   In addition, that `~#!*&hole Microsoft came out with a full blow seek attack by announcing another huge stock buy back just as the stock was rolling over for the retest of something below $20...@*%+~!

Eventhough I think we still drop down for the 10/2006 low to CMPX 1890-1900, this now makes any drop below that line, and especially DOW 10, 650, VERY UNLIKELY.   As for the SPX, hell man, it's now looking like the BOYZ and the HERD are going to stand and battle for only 1220.

As best I can tell, we either roll over right here and now or the BULL is in full control and even a full blow-out of the 4-Year cycle is doable...again.

8/11/06:   While we didn't get another "thrust" up even as the FED did pause, I still "suspect" we are very near rolling over again and heading down into the October cycle low.   However, be for warned that the major targets are not that much lower, especially in DOW, so this could be a slow grind down rather that any kind of thrust.  

On the other hand, it could also "hang" near these levels while going sideways and then make that "expected" thrust down to the targets.


8/4/06:   NOW looking for a BURST UP on a FED PAUSE, to <CMPX 2230 maximum and more likely CMPX 2190, and THEN a drop down to a 10/2006 low at, or near, CMPX 1890-1900.

7/28/06:   Big rally should cool off for a week and then retest this area as a top. However, eventhough, we are only into week two of a new 13 week cycle and should be biased up for another week or two, any serious bear sign here means run for full cover in hurry.

7/21/06: IT Still looks like we have already entered wave C down, and if so then forget much of a bounce.  However, unless the FED is going to jack two more times, in Aug. and Sept., then the major low is  probably NOT going to wait until OCTOBER??  Never the less, it looks like the 13 week cycle low was made this week and we will bounce for awhile...maybe to DOW 11,300 or so?

7/14/06:  WRONG!  Bounce over, and well below the 4 terminus...as@*^les!
NOW WHAT?  You tell me!  It "should be" the nasty C already in progress but hey, it's too early for a 10/2006 low unless it's going deep?

HOW ABOUT THIS ONE?  Drop down now in 3 of C, then lift up hard on the FED pause in rates as 4 of C, then drop down in a lame "retest" as 5 of C and then EXPLODE up right after 9/21 to 10/21??  Wild ride! 

7/7/06:  Since we did get a minor top and reversal, I think we are working a small wave down to another reversal back up that will be a "C" wave thrust to the correction top, as wave "b" or "x", and most likley near 2250 or that open gap at 2280-2290...to be followed by the big drop down into 10/2006. 


6/30/06:  Still UP, until mid to late July...I think?  Next week should see a minor top and reversal down, but that is little more than a SWAG, and IF CMPX > 2200 then "forget that" and look for a quick test of 2280-90.

6/23/06:   Same as 6/16, up.   

6/16/06:   While I think we have turned back up for awhile , there is no solid evidence of that as yet.  

6/9/06: Well, it unmasked itself and did it's thing all in one move...so now what?

As best I can tell, we are at the bottom of five down, or very, very, close to the bottom of five down,  from a 4/2006 high, and "most likley" ready to rally up some.  However, the candle charts are indicting that no big rally will hit until July, so I'm totally confused UNLESS we just consolidate at the lows for a awhile.

6/2/06: SPX for sure, and just about everything else, has completed an 5-3-5 up off the low made near 5/24/06.  Therefore, this could be anything from a very bullish (1)-(2) and 1-2 windup for a thrust up, OR a bearish a-b-c zig-zag as wave 4 of the decline from 5/9 still in progress to a lower-low then that 5/14 low.  Next week should unmask this beast!


5/26/06: I can't tell if the market has turned back up already or not. IF it has, then we only made three waves down and we are at the top of wave "1" or "a" of something going back up, probability minor, and IF not then this is a wave "iv" of a-1 something still going down.

While either is doable and likley, I'm inclined to believe that we are already headed back up for ONE FINAL ""double tap on the coffin lid," OR a new high in DOW... before the real burial party begins.

5/19/06 Update:  Needless to say, <SPX 1240 AND closing below there confirms that whatever this mess was up from 4/2005 did indeed end back in 4/2006.  I still "think" is the count shown in purple, wave four, but well see about that soon enough...like next week.  

 4/28/06 :  Here is the SPX, below, you tell me because I don't know?  One "thing" is for sure, it's either bearish OR very-very bullish because those last two overlaps can only be a string of 1-2's up, an ending diagonal, or a "running wave 4" going up big in wave 5 next.
   
   
--PLEASE SCROLL DOWN-      
CYCLES WEEKLY SUMMARY   REVIEWED without changes   12/8/6

SEE NEW DOW 13 week cycle chart posted for 11/22/06   <HERE>
CYCLES   13 wk: NO LOW=BLOW-OUT for 10/21/06  Next low? 1/21/07
 HIGH "estimate" 10-11 weeks up from 10/21/06 cycle blow-out low and somewhere between 12/21/2006 and 1/10/2007...after Xmas rally?

SAME as of 12/8... History between 12/1 and 1/21 of new year !
in 2000: FED no lower on 12/20--then emg.cut 1/5/01 triggers rally 1/6-1/21
in 2001: Steady drive right on up from 9/24/01 low to 1/7/07 high then dn 2/24
in 2002: Big rally off 10/10/02 to 12/2 top, then correct down to 3/12/03 low
in 2003: Blasted right thru Xmas to a huge top between 1/14/04 to 1/24/04.
in 2004: Round over top near 12/20 from 8/13/04 low and then made a mini melt-down from 1/05 to 1/21/05
in 2005: struggled off 10/13/05 low right on up to 1/3/06 then GAPPED straight up on 1/3 to 1/10 and then made a quick dip back to 1/21/06...then struggled all the way to a 5/10/06 high.



CYCLES 13 wk: LOW ~ 7/18 Next HIGH @ 8/10-8/21 & LO @10/1-10/21
CYCLES 13 wk: LOW ~ 4/18   Next HIGH @ 6/1-7/1? and LOW @ 7/18
CYCLES 26 wk: LOW ~ 4/18     Next HIGH @ 8/15 and LOW @ 10/13/06
CYCLES 26 wk: NO LOW=BLOW-OUT for 10/21/06  Next low? 4/21/07
CYCLES 1Y: x NEXT LOW~~ 9/21 to 10/21/2006   HIGH ~~ 3/21-7/21 06'
CYCLES 1Y:  NO LOW=BLOW-OUT for 10/21/06   Next low? 10/21/07
CYCLES 2y: x  NEXT LOW~~ 8/21 to 10/21/2006   HIGH ~~ 1/06-4/06
CYCLES 2Y:  NO LOW=BLOW-OUT for 8/21/06      Next low? 8/21/07
CYCLES 4Y: X   NEXT LOW ~~ 9/1 to 10/21/2006      HIGH ~~ 9/2004
CYCLES 4Y:  NO LOW=BLOW-OUT for 10/21/06   Next low? 10/21/07
CYCLES 8y:   lows in 1962-1970-1978-1986/87-1994/95-2002-2010-2018
CYCLES 40y: TOPS: 1888-1928-1968-2008  LOWS: 1894 (low of 2 recessions) -1934 (low of 1933 depression and 1938 recession) -1974 (center of 4 recessions) -2014 (center or low of ?)
--PLEASE SCROLL DOWN-
NEAR TERM CYCLES:  TOP to DOWN   "newest on bottom"
11/24/06: Be sure to view new DOW cycle chart below.

11/17/06:  I'm totally confused as to where the cyles went, and about the only thing I can think of is that they were just plain ignored and over powered by someone's massive bull agenda.  

In retrospect, it would not have taken that much 'manipulation" since the manipulator was handed a real lucky draw of the cards...so to speak.  That is to say, with NO hurricanes this hitting this season after the oil markets had loaded the boat and "priced in" another Gulf disaster, and then with the FED's skillfull manipultion of their interet rate "pause" into early August, which is always celibrated with a bulish rally, it's not so hard to see how these co-conspirators--or lucky opertunist--manged it.

One way or the other, the 4-year Presidential Cycle and the 1-year Seasonal Cycle were blow out for sure, even if, we strech things and say that the 2-Year cycle made it's low a little early.

As for the 13 week cycle, after coming in "about" on time in April-May, for the DOW anyway (but being inveted for the Nasdaq?) it did make a near perfect low for everything on about 7/18/06.   However, after that low, the indexes all blew straight trough the next scheduled 13 week low on 10/21/06.

Now, IF this rally in progress is wave (3) of ((C)) for Nasdaq, and NOT the wave (1) of ((C)) we thought it was, then this "blow-out is not so unusual and the 13 week, earnings, cycle will "likely" return on the next low....out near 1/21/07 for the next low and out near 12/31/06 for a high.  IF NOT, I'm going into a different business since it's only these cycles that keep the markets from a Random Walk and Chaos. 

11/10/06: All these cycle blow-outs have me totally confused, as the last 13 week cycle low, which also the 4-year cycle low, theoritically, was blown away by someone's big time bullish agenda...what that agenda is and who it belongs to is something we do not know, YET, and that scares the hell out of me!

10/27/06: With yet another blow out of the 13 week cycle, you can only assume that the HERD knows something very very bullish OR they are just pain insane.   Since I'm assuming this is a re-run of the 3/2003 to 1/2004 rally, and a lot like the 1986-1987 rally, if you check some index charts during those periods you can see just how "weak" any cycle lows were as the HERD had a buying agenda and nothing else mattered.

While I "suspect" that they were told by the FED that some free PUT insurance was in effect, I have no way of proving that.

7/14/06: 13-WK Cycle is now "looking like" it may have done a complete "inversion" in the 4/17/06 area, by making a high in the DOW rather than a low.  Since I totally hate inversions, I'll project both cases going forward UNTIL this is proven true or rejected.

UPDATED 7/21/06:   Since this was 7/21 and a options expiration day, I'll have to assume--for the very near term--that this "week" was a 13 week cycle low.  THIS will only be proven true IF we bounce up for the next three weeks as a minimum.  

UPDATED 8/4/06: AS it looks right now, 7/18/06 was "very likley" the 13 week cycle low, and that means the NEXT "theoretical" low will be "exactly" as we expected it to be...on, or very near, 10/10--10/21, 2006.

UPDATED 8/18/06: If 7/18/06 was the 13 week cycle low, then we are at then top of 5 weeks up off that low AND SHOULD REVERSE HERE IF the Bear can take it back down for the 10/2006 low that we expect.  IF NOT, the 4-Y will be blown-out or the BIG-BIG Boogeyman is dead ahead

UPDATED 9/8/06: Now at either the top of  eight weeks up off that 7/18/06 low, or already rounding over at eight weeks up. I never thought it would get here, so I'm very worried it has more upside to go.  However, note that the 4/14/04 top was an "inversions" and the 5/17/04 to 6/10/04 rally was a BULL TRAP that triggered after 6-7 weeks off the 5/17/04 low.

9/15/06: The US indexes  just finished week 8 or 9 up off the last 13 week cycle low...made on 7/18/06.  Typically speaking, this 8-9 week + offset projects  more bullishness ahead after the next "expected" low near 10/21/06.  

BY THE WAY, that "inversion" that I suspected back at the 4/21 period was NOT an inversion, since the next low came in exactly on time.  THIS means  it was a "rare," not not "very rare," SKIP or manipulated BEAR TRAP.

9/22/06:   We are now 10 weeks up into a new 13 week cycle, from a 7/18/06 low, yet the thundering herd is still driving ever higher.   While it's nearlly unbelievable to me, this is actually pointing to a major-major-major top right here in 2006 and an inversion, or a full blow-out of the 4-year cycle.

OF course, this could also be another Bull TRAP on the 4-Year in the same way the May, 06, high was a Bull Trap on the 13 week cycle...as the "expected" low was the high.   

9/29/06" SINCE we are still going up in week eleven, of 13, then this is either very-very bullish or it will be another BULL manipulated BEAR triggered INVERSION...which are usually a BULL TRAP high in place of a low.
  NEW CYCLE CHART for DOW   11/17/06 with running updates
ptr
UPDATED 7/21/06:   Since this was 7/21 and a options expiration day, I'll have to assume--for the very near term--that this was a 13 week cycle  low. THIS will only be proven true IF we bounce up for the next three weeks minimum.

6/30/06: While this is such a mess that I'm not sure the next 13 week cycle low has any value, eventhough, the odds still favor it being at least a minor LOW OR HIGH.  That low, or high, would be near 7/21.

6/23/06: As it stands here now, IF we did have an "inversion" then the next TOP would be near 7/13/06...since it would tend to match the tops along 1/13/06 and 4/11/06.  On the other hand, IF there was no inversion, then the next LOW should come in near 7/13 to 7/21 to match a "normal" seasonal cycle progression...which keys on an mid October low.

As best I can tell at this time, the evidence seems to support the thesis of a 7/13-7/21 TOP rather than a bottom.

5/12/06: NOT SO FAST says Mr. Bear, as the SPX has reversed back down to go lower than the last "very weak" cycle low. While I'm not sure what this means, IF I was one the main Herd I would make sure this never went below that 1:1 angle.

5/5/06: Needless to say, that 4/18/06 low is now nearly certain, and we are already in week three of a new up cycle even when the prior trading cycle troughs (the 13 week and 26 week) both failed to produce anything more then a slow down in most indexes, which surely must be viewed as big time bullish...for another few week at the minimum, and most likey all the way up into July.

4/28/06: W hile the 13 week and 26 cycle lows "appear to have been" put in on 4/18/06, which is nearly dead on for the "tax time basis" of the 26 week cycle (2 payments per year for corporations), there is a "far outside" chance that they are yet to come in "a little late." However, IF we get out past 5/1-5/10 then that becomes "extremely unlikely.
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CURRENT Leading Economic INDICATOR data                  

Updated  OECD   11/10/06     <here>

Updated  CB data 10/18/06  <here>

 

COMMODITIES BI-WEEKY SUMMARY MOVED   <here  11/06 >                                              

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MISC CHARTS and COMMENTS: POSTED 4/06 and valid until removed
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