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PRICE-TIME REVIEW's
Market-View Weekly b1
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1
1111111111111111111111111111
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SPX "cash" INDEX
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Wave Span Times
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3/24/00 ATH to
10/9/02 LOW~~30m or 133wks |
3/24/00 ATH to
3/12/03 LOW~~35m or 155wks
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9/1/00 HIGH to
10/9/02 LOW~~25m or 110 wks
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9/1/00 HIGH to
3/12/03
LOW~~30m or 132
wks |
3/12/03 LOW to
3/5/04
HIGH~~12m or
51 wks
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Project Spans
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10/9/02 LOW +133
wks ~~
4/25/05x
or 11/20/06ncx
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3/12/03 LOW +155
wks ~~
2/27/06x
or 12/28/07ncx |
10/9/02 LOW +110wks~~
11/15/04x
or
3/4/06ncx
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3/12/05 LOW +132wks
~~
9/19/05
!!! or 10/1/04xxx
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8/13/04 LOW +51wks
~~
8/13/05!!
or
3/9/05 hit? .6x |
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HISTORIC DATES
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9/1/2000 "could have been" the EW
top+5y= 9/1/05
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For Astrology traders, the Autumnal
Equinox is always a place to watch for "an event," and
that is somewhere near 9/22 .
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Needless to say, October has all
kinds of history Usually, but not always, bad history!
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9/1/2005 will
be a clear GANN anniversary date for many stocks, like
GE, and at least some indexes, like NYA.
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9/11 is now a major time period
to watch since some people "fear" those responsiable
for the WTC will do a repeat. Of course, it's far more
likely that "EasyAl" will use that "fear" to pull off a scam
than any real "event" occurring.
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SUNDAY, AUGUST 27, 2005 2:30 PM
US-EST GSM-5
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-PLEASE Scroll Down
--BEFORE--Selecting from MENU-
The
updates for 8/28/05
are in progress, and as of
8/28/05 at 2:30 PM
the main Market-View Menu page (
A1
including the first Elliott Wave
lesson #2
has been updated, as well as some items that can
be selected from that menu.
For
this SPX page, the last six
(6)
analysis will remain unchanged from the prior post on 7/29/05, all
ten (10) of the top
(10) menu selections that will be updated have been updated
so far, and our PTR comments
for this week are now finished.
In other words, the 8/28/05
update is finished as of 8/28/05 at 2:30 PM. However, we will be doing
some proof reading so there still may be some minor changes.
Please scroll down and
read the next notice if you have not done so already.
A. Quiggly Editor
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-PLEASE Scroll Down
--BEFORE--Selecting from MENU-
1
FOR SUNDAY,
AUGUST 28 , 2005:
AND THOSE ITEMS WHICH CAN BE SELECTED
AT THE MAIN MARKET-VIEW MENU (
A1
) HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
THIS PAGE--has been--FULLY
UPDATED OR REVIEWED FOR 8/28/05
THE MAJOR NEW COMMENTS FOR 8/28/05
ARE THE "PTR COMMENTS" ON THIS
SPX
ANALYSIS PAGE.
THIS
MENU STYLE AND THE ROTATION BETWEEN UPDATING THE FOUR INDEXES
LIST ON THAT MENU (SPX, DOW, CMPX, AND NYA), AND THE OTHER
THING-EE'S LISTED THERE, IS OUR NEW
FORMAT.
Andrew
Quiggly
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--PLEASE SCROLL DOWN or SELECT
from MENU--
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SPX "cash" INDEX:
KEY VALUES FOR PRICE
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PRIOR WEEKS
as
of
8/28/05
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DATES
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LAST
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-2WKS
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-3WKS
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CLOSE
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1205?
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1220
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1230
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HIGH
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1229
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1236
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1243
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LOW
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1204
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1215
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1222
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G/L
%
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-1.6%
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-1.0%
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+.01%
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EVENT
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LEVEL and DATE
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ALL TIME HIGH
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1523cl 1552id
~~3/24/00
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MAJOR LOW
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776cl 768id
~~10/9/02
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2005 HIGH
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1225cl 1229id
~~3/7/05
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AUG. TECH ONLY
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11 UP with +11.7% max.
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AUG. TECH ONLY
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8 DN with -19.9% max.
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AUG.-
DOW
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41
Up
with +35% max
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AUG.- DOW
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31 DN with -15.1% max
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AUG.- DOW
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Avg. if
Up =
+4.1%= 11065
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AUG.- DOW
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Avg. if DN = -4.0%=
10203
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KEY PIVOT LEVELS
Updated on 8/26/05
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LEVEL
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DESCRIPTION
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>1320
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BREAKOUT
> all retrace targets from the 2000-2002 decline
& "most likely" saying that the market will run
on up into a 2008 high.
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1320
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SPX target
for a large NINE wave pattern up from the 10/2002
low with W5=W1 "linear"
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1300
1289
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SPX target
for an large A-B-C Bear Market rally top, a counter
trend, from the 3/12/2003 low.
BEARS LAST STAND!
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1275
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GANN SQ-9
target at "about 1275, when calculated from the
10/10/02 low.
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1255-60
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PIVOT: Monthly R1 Aug. 2005
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1260
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61.8%
retracement of the 2000-2002 decline in linear scale.
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1250
1246
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SPX target
for a large FIVE wave pattern up from the 10/2002
low with W5=W1 linear
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1245
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2005 Intra-day high on 7/29 and 8/3 of 2005.
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1245
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absolute target from 1.618x 768 low
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+1229
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MARCH 7,
2005 high. A break above this line "should"
be bullish for a "test" of 1246-1265, and maybe even
1295-1300.
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1220
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Monthly Pivot
Aug. 2005 |
1219
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"weak" top put
in on 6./17/05
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1206
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50 SMA AS OF 7/29/05
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1205
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<<<--CLOSE
on 8/26/2005
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1202
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Prior "TRAP
DOOR" (now fully penetrated by 40 points) and prior
"OPEN GAP" (now filled). Also moderate longer term
"horizontal resistance."
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1196
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200 day simple moving average 8/26
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1184
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Quarterly Pivot 3Q
2005
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1184
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61.8% Retrace
of 2000-2002 decline in log scale |
1178
rev> target
?
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SPX Monthly Pivot (July).
TOP OF a "possible" wave
1 up from the 4/29 low.
The 2002
high , and a 61.8% retrace of the 2000-2002
decline in LOG scale.
THE INDEX MUST NOW STAY ABOVE
THIS LINE or we turn near term bearish; eventhough, we
think <1163 is the actual pivot down.
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-1174
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200 DAY SMA
on 7/1
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-1163
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YEARLY
PIVOT POINT INTRA-DAY
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-1160
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Prior "big time"
battle line in March. A drop below this line
would "most likely" confirm a full reversal down
to a "test" of 1060...a key!
ALSO a 2002 high and the 1/2004
high=HUGE
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-1155
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TREND LINE
across the 2003 and 2004 lows
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-1136
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APRIL 2005
LOW <=very bad
INDEX WILL "likely" CRASH to a quick 1060 "test"
if it goes below this line!
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-1060
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2004 LOW,
and a DOW THEORY Pivot Down for the secondary
trend.
PIVOT DOWN !!!
PTR's target for 10/2006 to 11/2006 4Y-Cycle low?
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-1000
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key psychological level
and a 50% retrace of this last 10/2002 to 3/7/05 rally...in
linear scale. THIS is now PTR's "reverse engineered"
pivot to swap between the preferred count (no melt down until
after 2008
), and the alternate count (a long triangle "grind
down" into 2010 or even further.)
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-768
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2002 major
low "intra-day"
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-610
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Fibonacci
Number and PTR's Bear Market target for 2010.
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--Please scroll down to continue--
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COMMENTS: U.S.
Market and/or
SPX "cash" INDEX
UPDATE for 8/28 is NOW finished as of 8/27/2005
7:30 PM
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SUMMARY FOR 8/28/05:
Intermediate Term:
I don't have a whole lot to say here since the
resolution of these next time targets will, or at least should, determine
the direction of the U.S. markets going into the end of 2005; as well
as, for most of 2006.
While we still say
the Bulls have now gained a small edge by attacking that
prior 13 week cycle early (a trough near 7/1 rather than the theoretical
7/21-7/29), and by drawing the markets back down -rather then jamming
them up-as we approach these next key time targets, the pattern itself
still looks like a very serious top, especially when you consider the
ugly negative divergence's we are seeing between RSI and price.
However, eventhough
the markets could become full blown bearish without making another "overbought"
jam top, on or near those key time targets...as we had hoped to see
but which now look rather remote, it's my opinion that this would more
likely be a weak bearishness. That is to say, I would doubt that
the decline, should it continue from right here and now, would send the
SPX below 1160-1137 at the next four year cycle low, which is due sometime
in the early fall of next year (9, 10, or 11 of 2006). However, since
my highest priority target" is only SPX 1060 on, or near, 9/1/2006 to 11/1/2006,
then that "assumption" is far being on solid ground.
Near Term:
THIS index is STILL NOT CONCLUSIVE,
BUT FOR THE BEARS: "The enemy is STILL at the gate," and
this index must not be allowed to go above 1260, "the most
likey higher-high top," or 1300 at the very, very, extreme.
A break above 1260 (bullish) or 1300 (very bullish)
would, "most likely," indicate a new bull leg up into 2008, even if
only after a "serious" "correction" down from that 1260-1300
area top. At that point, I would "highly suspect" that the BULLS
have won the battle and the whole U.S. market will, "most likely, be
BIG TIME bullish right on up into a new 2008 high; eventhough, a nasty
little dip down into a late 2006 "weak low" would
still be expected before any "finale."
AS BEST I CAN TELL, THIS index has either: 1) topped
out at the 3/7/2005 high (55%), which we think (or hope) is the
case for the DOW and SPX, e
venthough, I'm not sure
that is the case for NDX...yet, and is already
working the decline down into late 2006...as a set of all 3's,
OR 2) the top will come on or near 9/1-9/11 (45%...and which
we STILL expect for the NDX) to identify 10/10/2002
as the big low rather than 3/12/2003 (which we "suspect"
is the low only for the UTIL and DJT index), or 3) we are just plain
wrong and everything is just plain bonsai BULLISH on up into a retest
of the 2000 highs (35%), and maybe even more, all the way out to 2008 (but
far-far below Dent's 6,000+ SPX target).
While I was hoping to see a jam job right on up into a 9/1 to
9/11 high and a quick melt down into the "expected" 10/21/2005 low, to
start off the larger decline, there is also a "good" possibility that
this index will only dip to the 1160-1137 area by this October and then
move in a "weak" sideways "consolidation" out into to the spring of 2006.
If that scenario plays out, which would leave 2005 up for the year
of course, then I would expect to get the final drop, like a rock, down into
the 1060 area for that "expected" Four Year Cycle low.
On this
SPX cycle chart
, you
can see that the "deeper low" scenario is illustrated by the three
red dots for the case of low near 1060 in October, 2005, OR
at least below 1137 even if only a point or two, and by the green dots
for the case of a low that only makes it into the 1137-1160 area this
October. Needless to say, a drop down to only the 1137-1160 area for
this October is by far the more probable scenario.
Based on the last 13
weeks cycle low AND the one before it, this next low "should" come in
sometime between 10/1 and 11/1 since: 1) 7/3/05 trough (low) +13
weeks is near 10/1/2005 and 2) 4/29/05 trough +26 weeks divided by
2 (to get an average) would be near 11/1/2005.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, I could also
be totally wrong about this "potential" W-X-Y pattern (going up from
10/2002 to 2008 with the "W" now finished or about to top), and Ms
market will lift off now in a bonsai run that makes Harry Dent Jr. (Mr.
Dow 40,000 by 2009) proud.
While I
still "doubt" we will "break up" anytime soon, I do not have a
crystal ball to confirm that "suspicion." THEREFORE, and in summary,
the way I see it is that
the Bears still have a good shot at turning this around here enough
that the rally back up into 2008 will be a final "C" wave up, or
"Y" wave up, of huge Bear Market rally (from 10/2002), and
not any part of a new Bull Market, OR even a final leg up to the
old Bull Market...from 1974.
In my opinion, in order to stop that Bull train to Bull
heaven in 2008 the Bears need to "at least" take the SPX down to the
1060 "area" at, or before, the "expected" 4-Year Cycle low, in 9, 10,
or 11 of 2006.
By the way, for now, I'm estimating that the odds are back
down to just 3:2 or even money (1:1) that the Bulls have that "big advantage"
for a breakout (up) verses the Bears potential for a breakdown (dn),
even without another "jam job" back up into another failed attack on
SPX 1260.
For The Price-Time
Review
Andrew Quiggly
Editor
All content is copyright(2005) PriceTime
LLC
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