Price-Time Review's
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GEOMETRIC PATTERN ANALYSIS:
for the
DOW
JONES Industrials USA
(INDU) 2/15/2006
"New Cyclical Analysis post" page 1 of 3
The
three charts on the graphic below shows the results of PTR's
Visual Elliptical Fitting Method (tm) for the Cyclical Analysis of the
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (INDU) over some intermediate and near
term periods.
NOTE that this shows the "moderately well defined,"
prior, historical lows for the Intermediate Term 1-Year, 2-Year, 4-Year,
and 8-Year cycle troughs, lows, that were identified by our
Statistical Spectrum Analysis
, AND the "weak to poorly defined" historical highs of those same
cycles.
ANOTHER set of charts, accessed by the URL link below,
shows a NEAR TERM term chart for the key 13 week and 26 week "trading
cycles"; as well as, a LONG TERM chart of the DOW, going back to the "depression
of 1890-96," that shows the same 4-y and 8-y cycles, and the key "proposed"
LongWave Innovation Cycle...of 36 years to 40 years.
<P2: DOW INDUSTRIALS: LongWave & Presidential Cycle
2/16/06>
<P3: DOW Industrial Average: Near Term Trading Cycles--
3/06>
All subscribers and non-subsribers need to be aware
of the fact that the charts and analysis shown here are
only a small part of a larger process, and they are displayed
here for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation
to buy or sell any security.
Descriptive comments,
if any, are either on the graphic or in the block text
below it.
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2y and 1y cycle
charts are below 4y chart
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COMMENTS (IF ANY):
While the 4-Year,
"Presidential," cycle is what we classify as "well defined" to "very well
defined," like in reliable, the 8-year cycle is a "weak" or "poorly" defined
cycle.
In addition, since we only have one or two repetitions,
completed patterns, of the LongWave Innovation Cycle, that 36 year to
40 year trough and peak is not "highly confirmed," eventhough, it's looking
good for the future based on many "other" technical, demographic, and
economic indicators.
BY THE WAY, while my DOW data from 1896 to 1900 is
only a "best estimate," since my actual daily and weekly data only go
back to 1/3/1900, we do know some key facts about it that supports this
data estimate.
For example, we know that the index was first published
in that year, 1896, the U.S. economy was in a "severe recession
or depression," and the index value was "near 25-28 in the summer of 1896,"
according to W.D. Gann in his book 45-Years In Wall Street (1954),
and that was only for the orginal 12 "industrial and rail based stocks"
that made up the index at that time.
ALSO note that 1896 was the first time that the "ticker tape
machine" and the telegraph were used to send stock prices across the
country, it was the year that the new New York Stock Exchange building
went into service, and it was the low of a Bear Market that had been in
effect since 1889, and/or, 1991.
BY THE WAY, while many "talking
heads" claim that we can't use the DOW data back before 1930 because there
we only 12 stocks in the index until 1914 and then only 26 until 1930.
WRONG!
IF you "think" about the DOW INDUSTRIAL INDEX in a "relative perspective,"
and also RENAME IT the "TOP THIRTY-THREE PERCENT of MARKET CAP STOCKS IN
THE USA," then we can compare those 12 and 26 stocks to the current 30.
The reason for that is that they are still the "top dogs," in the eye of
most institutional and foreign investors, "AND" they still account for "about"
the top 30% to 33% of the entire MARKET CAP of all U.S. "based" stocks...as
those 12 did in 1896-1914 and those 26 did from 1914 to 1930. Note
that, once again, this means "without" FOREIGN BASED stocks.
GET IT NOW?
AJQ
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For The Price-Time
Review
Andrew Quiggly
Editor
All content is copyright(2003-6)
PriceTime LLC
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