Price-Time Review's
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GEOMETRIC PATTERN ANALYSIS:
for the
DOW
JONES Industrials USA
(INDU) 2/15/2006
"New Cyclical Analysis post" page 2 of 4
The
three charts on the graphic below shows the results of PTR's
Visual Elliptical Fitting Method (tm) for the Cyclical Analysis of the
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (INDU) over the long term period of 1900 to
2/2006.
NOTE that this shows the "moderately well defined,"
prior, historical lows for the 4-Year and 8-Year cycle troughs, lows, that
were identified by our
Statistical Spectrum Analysis
, AND the "weak to poorly defined" historical highs of those same
cycles. IN addition, this chart shows the "possibility"
of a 40 year longwave cycle, eventhough, with only 1-2 repetitions this
cycle is far from being confirmed.
ANOTHER set of charts, accessed by the URL links below,
shows a near term chart for the key 13 week and 26 week "trading cycles";
as well as, a updated Statistical Spectrum Analysis of the DJIA using
our our statistical software programs, Dplot and Origin Pro.
<P3: DOW: Intermediate Term Trading Cycles-- 4/1/06>
<P3: DOW Industrial Average: Near Term Trading Cycles-- 3/06>
All subscribers and non-subsribers need to be aware of the
fact that the charts and analysis shown here are only
a small part of a larger process, and they are displayed here
for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation
to buy or sell any security.
Descriptive comments, if
any, are either on the graphic or in the block text below
it.
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COMMENTS (IF ANY):
While the 4-Year,
"Presidential," cycle is what we classify as "well defined" to "very well
defined," like in reliable, the 8-year cycle is a "weak" or "poorly" defined
cycle, since it's market lows are generally not any deeper than the 4-Year
Cycle lows. Furthermore, this cycle "most likely does not exist
and what we see here is just another repetition of Four-Year Cycle.
Never the less, since some big Bulls "incorrectly" claim this is the main
market cycle, we will continue to assume it does exist for analysis purposes.
Since we only have one or two repetitions, completed
patterns, of the LongWave Innovation Cycle, that 36 year to 40 year trough
and peak is not "highly confirmed," eventhough, it's looking good for
the future based on many "other" technical, demographic, and economic indicators.
BY THE WAY, while my DOW data from 1896 to 1900 is
only a "best estimate" (not shown here), since my actual daily and weekly
data only go back to 1/3/1900, we do know some key facts about it that
supports this data estimate.
For example, we know that the index was first published
in that year, the U.S. economy was in a "severe recession or depression"
from 1889 to 1896," and the index value was "near 25 in the summer of 1896,"
according to W.D. Gann in his book 45 Years In Wall Street
(1954), and that was only for the orginal 12 "industrial based stocks"
that made up the index at that time.
ALSO note that 1896 was the first time that the "ticker tape
machine" and telegraph were used to send stock prices across the country,
it was the year that the new New York Stock Exchange building went into
service, and it was the low of a Bear Market that had been in effect since
1889, and/or, 1991.
AJQ
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For The Price-Time
Review
Andrew Quiggly
Editor
All content is copyright(2006) PriceTime
LLC
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