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PRICE-TIME REVIEW'S
--Long Wave(tm) Analysis and Support-- |
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE
(CMPX)
LongWave trend curve's mathematical regression analysis example. 12/7/2006
For those few Nay-Sayers who continue to cling to the "false
idea" that stock trends tend to follow linear lines, cubic "s" curves,
or parabolic curves, even in the face of the massive evidence to the contrary,
like "ASK" the dummy on StockCharts, I say:
STOP! Close your trap and "ACTUALLY LOOK at," and "Actually READ," the results returned by this ACTUAL STATISTICAL REGRESSION of the ACTUAL Nasdaq Composite daily data, (high+low)/2, from the indexes' beginning on 2/5/1971, at PAR 100, to it's actual all time high made on 3/10/2000, @ 5132 intra-day, AND THEN "tell me why "U" are STILL IN DENIAL? OF Course, I already know the "KEY" as to why "ASK" is still in denial! AJQ
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BY the way, for
those of you with some background in mathematics, and especially geometry
and calculus, you "should" be able to take one look at this curve, essentially
y= a(1+b)^x, and "see" that it's not even close to Mr. Gann's "Parabola,"
of y= aX^2...which is why the "SQUARE OF 9" is based on outright "fallacy."
OF course, if you get enough people to support a fallacy it can still
become a self full filling prophecy and have "some value."
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BY THE WAY, with a 95% "fit" to a regression curve for nearly 30 years then what is the "probability" that this index will recover and return to that exponential curve? Nearly zero you say? Right! OF course, that does not give us any clear SIGN as to whether the old bear market ended in 2002, and current rally is the first leg up of a new bull market, OR whether the bear market decline that started in 2000 did not end and is still "in progress," up now but latter back down, in the form of a bear rally in "B" up or "X" up. Well, when I said "no sign," that is not exactly true, as the "weak SIGN" is in support of the Bear Rally thesis. Dr. Andrew J. Quiggly Ph.D.
For The Price-Time
Review
Andrew Quiggly Editor |
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