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PTR's WideAngle Spectrum Analysis (tm) of
the U.S. 5 year T-Note "rate" from 1962-9/20/06
Page 3 of 3 (Spectrum 2 of 2)
Sine Regression Analysis
9/21/2006
This
page and the graphic in it's window below are part 3 of 3 of PTR's Spectrum
and Cyclical Analysis that we used to confirm or refute the "moderately
well defined" 5 year cycle located in the U.S.'s 5Y T-notes daily chart data
by our Visual Elliptical Fitting Method (VEFM).
<Page 2 of 3 for 5Y T-Note rate. Fast Fourier Transform
9/20/06>
<Page 1 of 3 for 5Y T-Note rate. PTR's Visual Fitting
9/18/06>
While these charts and data output GRAPHS may be a bit complex
for some
subscribers, or potential subscribers, who are not technically or mathematically
inclined, if you take the time to just do a good overview I believe it
will help you understand that we do not arrive at our "stock or bond cycles"
without due diligence and some scientific or statistical support.
OF COURSE, there is no guarantee that past history will always
be repeated in the future, especially, since the FED manipulator is now
playing insurance company for any and all foreign investors.
Any remaining comments pertaining to this analysis are either
on the graphic itself, or posted in the text box below it.
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MORE COMMENTS
(IF ANY)
9/21/06: Note that only
the daily closing values were used, from 1/1962 to 9/18/06, and this raw
data was "detrended" by the BASELINE subtraction function built into the OriginPro
software. That detrended data graph is shown by the black line plot
on the top graphic...behind the Sine Regression
"sine wave" output in red.
Note that this analysis is using X= 1 trading day, the those red text numbers
placed next to four of the sine wave output peaks are the X values, in tdays
from the start (1/2/1962). For example, the first peak labeled on
the left was 1530 trading days from the start, 0 or 1/2/1962, and the second
peak labeled was at 2802 trading days from the start. Therefore, from
peak to peak (p-p), there are 2802-1530 or "about" 1272 trading days.
Then since there are 251 tdays in year, that is 1272/251 or about 5.0 years.
The analysis on this page, 3 of 3, was done using OriginPro (tm), and
it was checking by a parallel analysis on page 2 that uses Dplot (tm).
BY THE WAY, do not forget to view the VISUAL ELLIPTICAL FITTING ANALYSIS,
page 1 of 3
, since it shows that the peaks and troughs (lows) from this cycle are
NOT symmetrical nor perfectly reoccurring ...as is the case with most market
cycles.
BB
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For The Price-Time Review
Andrew Quiggly and Ben Bonfoey
Co-Editors
All content is copyright(2006) PriceTime
LLC
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