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GEOMETRIC PATTERN ANALYSIS:
for the
DOW
JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (INDU)
Bottom Line--updated--7/25/06
I think that
this maybe one of those times where a picture is worth a thousand words,
or in this case where a chart is worth those many words.
As you can see for yourself, on the DOW graphic below, the
Bull's did manage to hold the absolute critical line of DOW 10,650-700
AGAIN, last week, and this was the "big bang" that drove the index up 200+
points on 7/19/06...and with another 9:1 up volume day too. Since
I'm not "expecting" the major low to come in until the 4-Year cycle low bottoms,
which is still "expected" between 9/21/06 to 10/21/06, that 9:1 up
day worries the hell out me since it now comes in at time when the Investors
Intelligence Sentiment (bulls verse bears) is already screeming "deep oversold"!
1
Eventhough, the cattle herder's spin master's
contributed this to some more FED speak BS, there is no doubt this was the
reason for a celebration.
1
WHILE this could be "the bottom" that Mr./Mrs. Bull have
been calling for every turn up since May, I "think not," eventhough, I have
to admit that they have dealt themselves another hand with which to convince
the herd of that, OR to even get the job done...unlikely as I think that
maybe.
IF you look at the lower chart on the graphic, the same one below,
you can see a three leg down pattern that the DOW has run every summer-fall
for the last five out of six years...shown by those yellow to blue to red
to green "dot" sequences.
As I just stated, while that last low could have been "the low,"
I'm still "expecting" that "the low" will come in late September to mid
October, in much the same manner in which it has made those "seasonal" lows
for those last five out of six years.
HOWEVER, I also have no intention of being FOOLED by the FED,
or Mr. Mega Bull, should they be able to pull off the "sneak attack" that
they are disparately working in order to catch everyone, or everyone else
anyway, SHORT going into that "fully expected" low for the "well defined,"
2Y technology upgrade Cycle, and the 4Y, Presidential, Cycle...both
due to make a trough, low, sometime between 8/21 and 10/21 of 2006.
FOR now, the daily, weekly, and monthly MSAR signals are all short
and we are too, using only 50% position and the daily signal to pivot in
and out.
AJQ
Descriptive comments, if
any, are either on the graphic or in the text block below
it. Also bare in mind that THIS IS NOT A FREE SITE, and these graphics
and comments are copyrighted material. Therefore, PLEASE do
not re-repost them "directly," eventhough, a URL "link" to any posted here
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NEAR TERM DOW and INTERMEDIATE TERM chart above
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COMMENTS
(IF ANY):
BY THE WAY,
IF the Dow continues on up above 12,000, as it sure looks like it will
in 2007 and/or 2008, then there are three major Elliott-Fibonacci targets
above:
1) Is ##### in ####, and that is based on the 1932-34 low as
being the low of super-cycle (II), with a cycle degree I-II-III from
1932 to the 1966-68 high, wave IV from 1966-68 to the 1974 low, and wave
V from 1974 to #### as a nine wave, "subdivided," 5th wave extension AND
???? final 5th being equal to the sum of I+II+III in price and time. That
is to say, 1932 @## to 1966 @1001 points is ## years up and a gain of #####,
while 1974 @570 to ##### in ### would be another ####% gain and over another
## years...with ## years also being a Fibonacci number.
2) Is ##### in ####, and that is based on the 1942 low being
the low of super-cycle wave (II), and from 1942 to 1966 being only wave
I of cycle degree. Then 1966 to 1974 as wave the II decline, and then
1974 to #### as a "subdivided" and "extended" wave III of cycle degree.
That is to say, 1942 @ 93 to 1966 at 1001 is 24 years and gain
of ####%, 1966 to 1974 as wave II, and then 1974 @ 570 to 2008 @ #####
is wave III, with ####% x 2.### = ####% x 570 = #####. THE Time
would likely fail in wave III but come back hit in wave V, matching the
24 years up from 1942 to 1966, for the final super-cycle top....near 2030-2042!
3) ##,771 A KEY FIBONACCI
NUMBER
NEEDLESS TO SAY, those
####'s ARE FILLED IN FOR SUBSCRIBERS !
For The Price-Time
Review
Andrew Quiggly
Editor
All content is copyright(2006)
PriceTime LLC
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