Price-Time Review's
LONG TERM CHART ANALYSIS
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GEOMETRIC
PATTERN ANALYSIS:
Support for:
PTR's
LongWave(tm) Series
DOW 1896-2007, SPX 1926-2007, and Nasdaq Composite Index (CMPX) 1971-2007
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PTR's
2006 RoadMap Example (1 of 3)
DOW Industrial Average
1896-1/2006.
Posted 1/29/06
FREE VERSION WITH many key points replaced with
"! ! ! !"
<skip to chart---not recommended>
Our
Annual RoadMaps started in 2004, and are based on four key propositions
and methods:
1) As of 2006, we accept the Generational and Economic Analysis
set out by Harry Dent Jr. in his "
Boom Books
" as the "most likely" correct THESIS for the U.S. stock markets,
eventhough, we adamantly reject his prediction for a Bull Market
high of DOW 40,000 and SPX 6,000...in 2008-9-10!
2) PTR's LongWave Rate Theory(tm) and WavePattern
Analysis, using Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Theory, shows that
the "most likey" Bull Market top will occur in EITHER
200! or 200
!--and "somewhere" between
! ! ! !
to
! ! ! ! --OR the bull door comes wide open to
"anything and everything." AT WHICH TIME, we would have to "rethink"
our current strong opposition to Dent's radical projections.
NOTE here to subscribers for this 11/20/06
update: I "upped" the "upper" end of our maximum target area for the
"still expected" Bull Market top from
! ! ! !, based on "other measurements" outside
of the LongWave rates and ratios. That is to say, while the longwave
measures to "exactly"
! ! ! !
its "proxy," DIA, will "theoretically" tap
! ! ! !
. GET IT?
ALSO NOTE, that the DIA proxy (Diamonds) has
a history of not running the exact
! ! ! !
ratio to the index itself, so DOW could turn at
! ! ! !
to
! ! ! !
--or so--while DIA does top out at
! ! ! !
. GET IT NOW?
Oh, and by the way, Mr. Gann's SQ.-
! ! ! !
would not actually be valid unless DOW tagged
! ! ! !
x100=
! ! ! !
in the year 20
! !
...since the DOW came into public use in
! ! ! !
and
! ! ! !
+
! ! ! !
is
! ! ! !
and NOT
! ! !
.
3) The DOW going below <10,000 anytime now,
after 1/27/06, will void all thoughts of a continued bull market
and signal the next leg down has already begun in Nasdaq...which
has a 3:1 probability of being in a
! ! ! !
and actually heading
! ! ! !
into
! ! ! !
...after making it's "X" wave rallyt top in either 200
! or
200
!.
4) The Dow going above >
! ! ! !
before the end of
! ! ! !
would signal that the final Bull Market may extend further
and place our overall longwave forecast in serious trouble, eventhough,
only a blow-out through the Fibonacci number line at
! ! ! !
, and before the end of
! ! ! !
, would terminate it entirely.
All near term and intermediate term DOW charts, including
the current Gann Swing Charts, the Point-Figure charts, and both Cyclical
Analysis charts are restricted to subscribers only.
NOTE THAT as of 1/25/06, our estimate is that the full 2006
RoadMap, for subscribers only, will be finished and posted within 2-3
weeks, or about mid to late February, 2006. I apologize for the delay,
and hope this "condensed version" will give you a good idea as to what
our full analysis and forecast will be working around.
For subscribers to the Price-time Review, this graphic is posted
here only in "support" of, and/or as an example for, comments
posted on other Market-View postings, and any "assumptions" being
made based on it should only be done in conjunction with the
page and comments that it supports.
All non-subsribers need to be aware of
the fact that the charts and analysis
shown here are only a small part of a larger process,
and they are displayed here for educational purposes only
and are not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Descriptive comments,
if any, are either on the graphic or in the text
block below it.
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UPDATED 2/16/07: NOTE THAT PTR's widely acclaimed
2007 ROADMAP, SHOWING THE BULL's and
BEAR's FINAL BATTLE GROUND--and the "most likely" winner for 2007-20
!
!--has been
posted for our existing
long term month to month
AND all
yearly
SUBSCRIBERS.
This baby will knock the socks of anyone from pure "fundamentalist
to die hard Techno-Head." IN addition, our #1 KEY CHART for Bond
Rates has just now been finalized for 2007 and it's HOT TO TROT too!
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COMMENTS (IF ANY):
1/27/2006: THE
absolute KEY to this analysis is the "idea" of BASE BUILDING for wave
(I) and (II). Just "look at" those patterns coming off the
1932 low, a one-two of something, and the 1974 low up to 1976 and back
down to the 1982 low is another one-two "base and retest" of something
we think, and that tells me these are the same...or are at least
very close to being the same, "pattern."
By the way, the long wave timing for this is
EITHER:
A) IF
! ! ! !
is the top of (V) up from 1932 as shown above:
Wave (I) up + wave (II) down + wave (III) up runs
from a 1932 low to 1966 high (or the 1934 low to the 1968 high) over
a 34 year period with a gain of about
! ! ! !
to
! ! ! !
in percentage
terms.
THEREFORE: wave (V) would be about equal to the
sum of wave 1+2+3 from the low of 4, which is a very common measurement
for a
! ! ! !
B)
! ! ! !
OH! One last point about these longwave charts that
I want to mention here is that while I do have the daily "closing" data
for the DOW going back to 2/1/1896, none of my programs can plot dates
prior to 1/1/1900.
In addition, note that while the "Industrials Index" began
being published for the first time to the public in 1896 and this "Industrial
Average" was originally for only 12 s
tocks, of which five were also still "RAILS," this index does today, at
30 stocks, still represents approximately the top 30 Market Cap stocks and
about the top 1/3 of the entire value of the U.S. Stock Market. Therefore,
on a "relative basis, " those twelve stocks in 1896 are "about" equal to
the current thirty stocks the DOW contains today.
Oh, and as best I can tell, the only remaining stock that has survived
those past 110 years (2006-1896), is, I think, General Electric. Furthermore,
we also note that in 1896 the U.S. Stock Markets had been in a
! ! ! !
! !
and the end of that Bear Market
came at that DOW low of
! ! ! !
, on 8/8/1896.
10/31/06: UPDATE for
INTERMEDIATE TERM
<DOW's GANN CHART: "Tunnel Thru Air" to where in 2007-08??>
BB
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For The Price-Time
Review
Ben Bonfoey and Andrew Quiggly
Co-Editors
All content is copyright (c) 2006
PriceTime LLC
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