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PTR's ANALYSIS for KEY INDIVIDUAL STOCKS
9/12/2006
UPDATE
of TEXAS INSTRUMENTS (TXN), using Gann Angles and Squares
with Elliott Wave and Cyclical Analysis.
Based on all the fundamentals and the pattern data we have
at this time on TXN; as wells as, the U.S. and World stock markets overall,
we "estimate" that this stock is currently heading down in the final leg
of a correction that will "most likley" reverse back somewhere between $24
and $26 before making a final bull run up into our "expected" 2008 high.
However, should TXN drop below $24 before breaking above $36
then that "bullish" scenario for the intermediate term becomes "highly unlikely"
and a drop below $21 says the the big bear decline is already back in business...to
a 2010-2014 low.
The graphic below shows the long term "overall" analysis, while
the two charts at the next URL LINK show the "very near term" SETUP based
on the Gann Angles and the long terms trend as it relates to Mr. Gann's "squaring"
of price, time, or price to time.
<TXN-page 2 of 2: Near term Gann angles and long term Gann Squares>
The some comments pertaining to this analysis are placed on the
graphic itself, but a few "extra" are, or maybe, posted in the text block
below it.
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MORE COMMENTS
TEXT BLOCK, IF ANY!
9/12/06 Original Post Continued:
FOR those who are knowledgeable in Elliott Wave Theory,
the chart shows that this small correction would be (c) down of a larger
((B)) down of a huge wave X moving up from the 10/2002 low to our "expected"
high in 2008.
As best we can tell at the moment,
this bullish projection would become void IF TXN goes below the Gann 1:4
angle anytime in 2006,7, or 8, now near $23-$24, and would become "questionable"
on a "not bullish enough basis IF TXN were to thrust on up at steep angle
and exceed $57-$60 anytime before 2008. In that case, it becomes "possible"
that we are totally wrong and TXN is working a new bull market up, most likley
along the path shown by that thin green line, rather than this final Bear
Market Rally that we expect.
Currently, our "estimate"
is that the probability is 65:35 that TXN is working a Bear Rally up rather
than the first leg up of a whole new Bull Market, and that is shown on the
chart as well.
ALSO NOTE, that in the "very
near term," here to the end of November maximum, the flip side of our bearish
(c) down in progress scenario is that this (c), and the larger ((B)) low,
may have already been put in back at the 7/21/06 low.
While that seems unlikely, there is no doubt that the Big Bull and
the FED have conspired to "force" a blow out of the 2-year and 4-year cycles,
with their "rates and yield curve manipulation," and they may have pull off
this sneak attack...much like the ones they pulled off in 1928 and 1986...hum?
For active traders, I would
keep in mind that $34 is some huge Fibonacci resistance and support, depending
on whether price is above or below it of course. It is based on our
own Fibonacci Trend Theory (tm) that we "project" that $55-$57-$60 in 2008.
Since we expect TXN to break "above" AND away from $34 on this next
major rally, our theory would then "expect" the stock to "test" the next
higher Fibonacci number line, at $55, in much the same way that Mr. Gann
"expected" a "clear break" of one of his key angles, either up or down, to
lead to a "test" of the next nearest
Based on our own observations this "continuation from
a break" works out "most of the time" IF the price breaks "clearly away from
the angle," and that distance is somewhat subjective ...eventhough moving
1/2 the distance to the next angle nearly always leads to that "test' of
it.
AS a final few notes for those
who are new to some of these complex pattern methods: 1) that 2-Year
Cycle is the Technology Upgrade Cycle and it's theoretical trough (low) is
for August of every other year and not October, where the 4-Year "Presidential
Cycle" typically bottoms. 2) That "theoretical" two month difference
is due to the seasonality (1 year cycle) of the Technology Cycle making
a bottom on the back to school hype and many high tech, software, companies
using an odd ball calendar year. 3) October's seasonally low--in nearly
everything else but high tech--is based on bi-yearly tax payments to be made
by corporations and the start of the 4th quarter earnings season...which
is "typically" SPICED UP in order to promote a bigger Christmas bonus
at Corporate American and on Wall Street.
Oh, one last point about that lower chart. That 10.1%
longwave rate "mean," for a 10.1 % compounded annual growth rate (CAGR), is
only an "estimate" at this point in time, and it will not be confirmed or
refuted for many years into the future, eventhough, it's probability of confirming
is far better than not.
Andrew J. Quiggly
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Andrew Quiggly and Ben Bonfoey
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