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MarketView(tm) Bottom Line Support
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S&P 500 Index (SPX)
INTERMEDIATE TERM "MASTER CHART" for GANN and ELLIOTT WAVE "U.S. Stock Market Key until replaced" 7/1/2007 NOTE THAT some key comments and values have been blocked out for this "free post," but subscribers may see the full and unedited post by loging in <here> 1 FOR THOSE who understand
even basic Gann and Elliott Wave Theory, these Bull and Bear
SPX CHARTS below speak for themselves, and the comments on them
only serve to help those who do not.
As for the professionals, take special note of the SPX's failure--so-far-- to take out the 1/2004 RSI weekly peak. While I use a 12 period RSI, we are getting the same picture--so far--for the 10, 13 period, and 16 period RSI. SEE what I mean? Right! IF this rally fails to put in a new RSI peak, as I highly suspect it will, THEN that will be the 2nd "negative divergence" to the 1/2004 RSI peak. This "would be" some MAJOR BEAR SIGN for a mega top...eventually. I say "eventually" here because these negative divergences can "run on" for a long time before the index actually caves...as in the case of a 3rd wave AND a 5th wave "extension." IF I WERE YOU, I would save this "Master Chart" to my computer, and even put an ICON on my desktop pointing to it, so as to remind me to "look at it" once a week or so...this is "IT," the END GAME is now in play! BY THE WAY, the bottom LINE "QUESTION" to be answered is still: DOW stops at 1#,#00-1#,#00 AND SPX 1###-1### "OR" it's onto BULL HEAVEN @ DOW 1#,### or 1#,###. On the flip side, the DOW now MUST NOT go "materially below" 11,900 intra-day and, less likely, a 11,750 daily close, ELSE the probability jumps to 8:3 that a new Bear Market is in progress--even if the index gets a massive bounce from just below that line (as would be expected from the 10,946 Fibo# or from the 10,750 apex to the old Diamond Pattern from 1998-2000-2002). As for SPX, while any "full break" below the last SWING LOW, made at "about" 1,360 on 3/14/07, is HUGE BEAR SIGN, I would give this a tad more room to TRAP the bears--say down to below SPX 1,300--BEFORE we can say that a NEW BEAR is "clearly in progress." Of course, if that occurs, we can also "expect" the usual "bounce" and "re-test" for a LOWER-HIGH before any massive panic attack...eventhough there is no guarentee of that. BY THE WAY, just remember that simplest and most powerful stock market technical indicator --aka ####### THEORY --is based on higher-highs AND higher-lows going up--ON A "DAILY CLOSING BASIS"--AND on lower-lows and lower-highs coming down. THEREFORE, the real "death sentence" for DOW would be a "daily close" below the 1/14/2000 daily closing high--at 11,726--AND THEN a failure to make a higher-high than the "Swing High" made before that new low...which should be made sometime in mid 2007 or early 2008. However, also note that a ###### THEORY confirmed failure "typically" only appears in wave "C" down, the so-called "recognition wave," and that wave is usually a hard down that comes in WELL AFTER "THE TOP."
BB
ALL VIEWERS of these charts, either legal subscribers or outlaw nonsubsribers, need to be aware of the fact that the charts shown here and the analysis discussed here are only a small part of a larger process, and they are displayed for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Descriptive comments, if any, are either on the graphic or in the text block below it. |
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For
The Price-Time Review
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KEYWORDS used for this page are as follows with links to other information on our web site: Price-Time Review , stock market forecasting , stock market timing , yearly RoadMaps 04-07 , W.D. Gann's key methods , long term stock charts Dow 1896-2007 , stock charts , Dow near term charts , actual U.S. Stock Cycles identified by Fourier Analysis |
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