Price-Time Review's
LONG TERM CHART ANALYSIS
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GEOMETRIC PATTERN ANALYSIS:
Support for:
PTR's
LongWave(tm) Series
DOW 1896-2007, SPX 1926-2007, and Nasdaq Composite Index (CMPX)
1971-2007
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PTR's
2006 RoadMap Example (1 of 3)
DOW Industrial Average
1896-1/2006.
Posted 1/29/06
FREE VERSION WITH many key
points replaced with
"! ! ! !"
NOTE that all Subscribers
can view the un-edited version of this post, and Dow LongWave chart,
by logging in
<Here>
, and all longer term subscribers (3 months or more) can view all the
LongWave charts (Dow 1896-2007, SPX 1926-2007, Nasdaq 1971-2007, and others)
by logging in and following this link
<2007 RoadMap>
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<skip to chart---not recommended>
Our
Annual RoadMaps started in 2004, and are based on four key propositions
and methods:
1) As of 2006, we accept the Generational and Economic Analysis
set out by Harry Dent Jr. in his "
Boom Books
" as the "most likely" correct THESIS for the U.S. stock
markets, eventhough, we adamantly reject his prediction for a
Bull Market high of DOW 40,000 and SPX 6,000...in 2008-9-10!
2) PTR's LongWave Rate Theory(tm) and Wave
Pattern Analysis, using Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Theory,
shows that the "most likely" Bull Market top will occur
in EITHER 20 ! !
or 200 ! !--and "somewhere"
between
! ! ! !
! ! ! ! --OR the bull door comes wide open
to "anything and everything." AT WHICH TIME, we would have to "rethink"
our current strong opposition to Mr. Dent's radical projections.
NOTE here to subscribers for this 11/20/06
update: I "upped" the "upper" end of our maximum target area for
the "still expected" Bull Market top from
! ! ! !, based on "other measurements"
outside of the LongWave rates and ratios. That is to say, while
the longwave measures to "exactly"
! ! ! !
its "proxy," DIA, will "theoretically" tap
! ! ! !
. GET IT?
ALSO NOTE, that the DIA proxy (Diamonds) has
a history of not running the exact
! ! ! !
ratio to the index itself, so DOW could turn at
! ! ! !
to
! ! ! !
--or so--while DIA does top out at
! ! ! !
. GET IT NOW?
Oh, and by the way, Mr. Gann's SQ.-
! ! ! !
would not actually be valid unless DOW tagged
! ! ! !
x100=
! ! ! !
in the year 20
! !
...since the DOW came into public use in
! ! ! !
and
! ! ! !
+
! ! ! !
is
! ! ! !
and NOT
! ! !
.
3) The DOW going below <10,000 anytime
now, after 1/27/06, will void all thoughts of a continued bull
market and signal the next leg down has already begun in Nasdaq...which
has a 3:1 probability of being in a
! ! ! !
and actually heading
! ! ! !
into
! ! ! !
...after making it's "X" wave rally top in either 20
! ! or 20 ! !,
and between CMPX ! ! ! ! and
! ! ! !.
4) The Dow going above
! ! ! !
before the end of
! ! ! !
would signal that the final Bull Market may extend
further and place my overall longwave forecast in serious trouble,
eventhough, I highly doubt that will happen AND only a blow-out through
the Fibonacci number line at
! ! ! !
, and before the end of
! ! ! ! !
, would terminate it entirely.
All near term and intermediate term DOW charts, including
the current Gann Swing Charts, the Point-Figure charts, and both
prime time Cyclical Analysis Charts are restricted to subscribers only.
NOTE THAT as of 1/25/06, our estimate is that the full
2006 RoadMap, for subscribers only, will be finished and posted within
2-3 weeks, or about mid to late February, 2006. I apologize for
the delay, and hope this "condensed version" will give you a good idea
as to what our full analysis and forecast will be working around.
For subscribers to the Price-time Review, this graphic is
posted here only in "support" of, and/or as an example for, comments
posted on other Market-View postings, and any "assumptions"
being made based on it should only be done in conjunction with
the page and comments that it supports.
All non-subsribers need to be aware
of the fact that the charts and analysis
shown here are only a small part of a larger process,
and they are displayed here for educational purposes
only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Descriptive comments,
if any, are either on the graphic or in the text
block below it.
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UPDATED 2/16/07: NOTE THAT PTR's widely acclaimed
2007 ROADMAP, SHOWING THE BULL's
and BEAR's FINAL BATTLE GROUND--and the "most likely" winner for 2007-20??--has
been posted for our existing
long term month to month
AND all
yearly
SUBSCRIBERS.
This baby will knock the socks of anyone from pure "fundamentalist
to die hard Techno-Head." IN addition, our #1 KEY CHART for Bond
Rates has just now been finalized for 2007 and it's HOT TO TROT too!
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COMMENTS (IF ANY):
1/27/2006: THE
absolute KEY to this analysis is the "idea" of BASE BUILDING for
wave (I) and (II). Just "look at" those patterns coming off
the 19 ! ! low, a one-two of something, and
the 19 ! ! low up to 19 ! ! and back down to the 19 ! ! low is another one-two
"base and retest" of something we think, and that tells me these
are the same...or are at least very close to being the same, "pattern."
By the way, the long wave timing for this
is EITHER:
A) IF
! ! ! !
is the top of (V) up from 19 ! ! as shown above:
Wave (I) up + wave (II) down + wave (III)
up runs from a 19! ! low to 19 !! high (or the 19 ! ! low to the
19 ! ! high) over a 34 year period with a gain of about
! ! ! !
to
! ! ! !
in
percentage terms.
THEREFORE: wave (V) would be about equal
to the sum of wave 1+2+3 from the low of 4, which is a very common
measurement for a
! ! ! !
B)
! ! ! !
OH! One last point about these longwave charts that
I want to mention here is that while I do have the daily "closing"
data for the DOW going back to 2/1/1896, none of my programs can plot
dates prior to 1/1/1900.
In addition, note that while the "Industrial Index" was
published for the first time--to the general public--in 1896, and
this "Industrial Average" was originally for only 12 s
tocks--of which five were also still "RAILS"--this index does today, at
30 stocks, still represents approximately the same top 1/3 of the entire
market cap "value" of all U.S. Stocks.
Therefore, on a "relative basis," as in the top 1/3 in 1896 and top
1/3 in 2006, those twelve stocks in 1896 are "about" equal to the current
thirty stocks that the DOW contains today.
Oh, and as best I can tell, the only remaining stock that has survived
those past 110 years (2006-1896), is, I think, General Electric.
Furthermore, we also note that in 1896 the U.S. Stock Markets
had been in a
! ! ! !
! !
and the end of that Bear
Market came at that DOW low of
! ! ! !
, on 8/8/1896.
10/31/06: UPDATE for
INTERMEDIATE TERM
<DOW's GANN CHART: "Tunnel Thru Air" to where in 2007-08??>
BB
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For The
Price-Time Review
Ben Bonfoey and Andrew Quiggly
Co-Editors
All content is copyright (c) 2006
PriceTime LLC
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