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Full Analysis of Individual Stocks--Big Tech Series
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Texas Instruments Company (US-NYSE-TXN)
Gann, Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, Cycle Analysis, Swing Charts, PF-Chart, Candlestick analysis, and Fundamentals New for 5/2/07 with future running updates "quarterly" NEWS ADDED ON 5/25 and 6/14 of 2007...at the very bottom! --PLEASE SCROLL DOWN TO HUGE CHART BELOW-- BASED
on the key methods employed by W.D. Gann, Texas Instruments
(TXN), is now classified as "a little less bearish" than it was back
in 2005 and 2006...since "time ran out" on the Bear Square in early 2007
"without a major tank job"!
HOWEVER, based on Mr. Gann's key angles, 1:1 and 1:2--in the correct scale--at best TXN is still only "less bearish," and a long way from being classified as bullish. While anything is possible over the near and intermediate term, especially wit the key 2-Year, "Technology," Cycle turned up, for the intermediate term out to end of 2007 and, maybe, "just a little beyond that into early 2008, "we" are expecting "very hard times" for TXN...after 2007. BE SURE TO ALSO VIEW <SOX INDEX analysis 5/21/07> Since the technical PATTERNS shown below speak for them themselves, especially for those trained in Advanced Pattern Analysis , all I have to do here is to "suggest" that anyone who that thinks I'm wrong--aka full of crap-- just STOP and ask themselves this question: Where is the next latest and greatest TECHNO TOY going to come from that will continue to drive "upgrade" and "replacement" cycles every two to four years? RIGHT...it's nowhere to be found! And, that is "natural" because we have exited the "innovation" AND "roll out" stages of many, if not nearly all, advanced technologies ...and they are now in--or entering--the late stage or "commodity cycle." Therefore, IMO, we are looking at a technology "Nuclear Winter" on the horizon, and "I think" the SMART MONEY stated "pricing in" THAT highly likely event way in back in 2000. While, in many cases, the major damage and "pricing in" has been taken care of, another "retest" of those prior major lows is "nearly" a foregone conclusion...as "true bull markets"grow from a base, or foundation, and not any quick "crash and run." Eventhough some analysis may dispute that statement, and point to the 1929 high and the 1932 "crash low" as an example, I will counter that by saying that the 1929-1932 crash was "clearly" a major "over blow" PANIC, where the damage and "pricing-in" was WAY OVERDONE. Just look at the historical low market PE's of 4-6 (on a 12 month trailing basis) made in 1932, verse the "low" PE's of only 10-12 made in late 2002 and early 2003. SEE what I mean? Eventhough we can not necessarily paint ALL technology with the same brush, and there are no guarantees in this business, I have little doubt that TXN will "tap dance" on $8 or $13 before it ever sees $60 again. SO, where would I be "proven wrong at"? TXN >$46 near term and TXN >$60 longer term!
B.Bonfoey
Co-Editor ALL VIEWERS of these charts, either legal subscribers or outlaw nonsubsribers, need to be aware of the fact that the charts shown here and the analysis discussed here are only a small part of a larger process, and they are displayed for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Descriptive comments, if any, are either on the graphic or in the text block below it. |
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COMMENTS:
(if any) TEXT ONLY!
SUMMARY: 5/3/07: While we at PTR "still expect" that the long BULL MARKET up from 1974 to END in late 2007 to early 2008, with the Technology, "two-year," Cycle still biased "up" until 12/07 to 1/08 there MAY BE time for Mr. Bull to hammer TXN right on up to our intermediate term "targets @ $40-$46-$55, AND FAIL THERE; eventhough, the odds are still "slightly against" that scenario AS LONG AS TXN is below $35. SO, where would I be "proven wrong at"? TXN >$46 near term and TXN >$55 (+/-3) longer term! NEWS ADDED 5/25/07: Wafer testing rebounding strongly Ingrid Lee, Taipei; Rodney Chan, DIGITIMES [Friday 25 May 2007] The wafer testing sector is seeing a strong rebound as foundry utilization rates are climbing amid a recovery in the semiconductor industry, according to industry sources. 6/14/07: US STOCKS-Indexes drop on interest rate worries Tue Jun 12, 2007 12:00pm ET By Kristina Cooke NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as rising bond yields stoked concerns that higher borrowing costs could cut into corporate profits and put a damper on deal activity. A disappointing outlook from Texas Instruments (TXN.N: Quote, Profile , Research) sent the chip-maker's shares down 2 percent and dented optimism about tech spending. WITH the SOX index now looking "VERY UGLY" for a full retest of the 2002 lows, I think it is UNLIKELY that TXN can make it much higher, eventhough, the 2 Year Cycle is still UP until the end of 2007...AT BEST! RIGHT NOW my estimate is still: a mini crash for late summer or fall of 2007, then hard bounce back up, and then the final high in early to mid 2008...or at least "sometime" in 2008.
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B.L. Bonfoey Co-Editor |
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KEYWORDS used for this page are as follows with links to other information on our web site: Price-Time Review , stock market forecasting , stock market timing , yearly RoadMaps 04-07 , W.D. Gann's key methods , long term stock charts Dow 1896-2007 , stock charts , Dow near term charts , actual U.S. Stock Cycles identified by Fourier Analysis |